NFL Anytime Touchdown Picks, TD Bets & Week 11 TD Parlay

Coming off a scorching run that’s pushed the season total to over 20 units in profit, this week's touchdown card is loaded with value — from reliable red-zone workhorses to high-upside longshots in plus matchups.

With several soft defensive spots and key injury situations opening the door for extra volume, this slate sets up perfectly for more end-zone success. Here are my favorite touchdown bets and NFL picks for Week 11.

Best Week 11 TD props

Matchup	TD Pick
WAS vs MIA	Washington +210
LAC vs JAC	Etienne Jr. +115
TB vs BUF	Hawes +700
CHI vs MIN	Williams +320
GB vs NYG	Doubs +205
HOU vs TEN	Higgins +500
CAR vs ATL	Allgeier +185
CIN  vs PIT	Smith +230
SF vs ARI	Kittle +180
SEA vs LAR	Parkinson +750
KC vs DEN	Harvey +120
BAL vs CLE	Kolar +1100
DET vs PHI	Barkley -105
DAL vs LV	Lockett +370

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

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Commanders vs Dolphins

Malik Washington (+210 at DraftKings) A-

The Commanders have been a disaster, losing four straight by 20+ points and giving up 179 total points during their five-game skid. Miami could be in a slight letdown spot after their emotional win over Buffalo, but the Dolphins should still be able to move the ball with ease.

Malik Washington has scored in two of his last three games and continues to get designed touches, including four carries over his last two outings. He was also the only WR/TE to see a red-zone target last week, which keeps him firmly in play for another touchdown.

With Ollie Gordon limited early in the week due to an ankle issue, Washington could see more red-zone work. I’m taking this all the way to +180.

Chargers vs Jaguars

Travis Etienne Jr. (+115 at DraftKings) A- 

Buccaneers vs Bills

Jackson Hawes (+700 at DraftKings) A 

The Bills’ win over the Chiefs feels like a long time ago, but they’re in a good spot to put up points at home against a Bucs defense allowing 27.4 points per game to teams with winning records over five games.

Dalton Kincaid is considered week-to-week after exiting Week 10, so I’m looking elsewhere at tight end — and it’s not Dawson Knox.

Jackson Hawes found the end zone last week at +750 and continues to be a red-zone threat, though his score came from 26 yards out. If Kincaid is out, I’d play this down to +450.

Bears vs Vikings

Caleb Williams (+320 at DraftKings) A+ 

Caleb Williams boasts 140 rushing yards over his last three games, and the Bears quarterback scored on the ground last week. When he faced the Vikings in Week 1, he ran six times for 58 yards and a touchdown. Williams has logged 17 red-zone carries this season, with at least one in every game.

Only Jalen Hurts has more red-zone carries among quarterbacks this year, making this price a steal for that kind of volume. The Vikings have also allowed at least 24 points in four straight games. This is a great spot to back him again.

Packers vs Giants

Romeo Doubs (+205 at DraftKings) B 

The Packers have a much better matchup this week and should be a prime spot to target their receivers near the goal line. Few teams are allowing more points than the Giants, who will be starting Jameis Winston.

Injuries are piling up again for Green Bay. Tucker Kraft is out, while Matthew Golden, Dontayvion Wicks, and Savion Williams are all limited in practice. Luckily, Romeo Doubs looks like he's over the hump of a chest injury that cost him some snaps against the Eagles.

Packers wideouts didn’t see a single red-zone target last week, but Doubs led the group in Week 9 with three inside the 20. His anytime touchdown price is the second-shortest among Green Bay players, trailing only Josh Jacobs.

Texans vs Titans

Jayden Higgens (+500 at DraftKings) B+

Jayden Higgins and the other Houston rookies were getting plenty of praise from DeMeco Ryans on Thursday, with the coach calling Higgins’ catch radius “insane.” That radius was on full display again last week as he caught five passes for 40+ yards and a touchdown from Davis Mills. It was his third score of the year and his second in the last three games.

Higgins is earning more trust as the No. 2/3 option in this offense and draws a soft matchup against a Titans secondary that’s allowing the sixth-most receiving yards to opposing wideouts.

Don’t let the possibility of a Mills start scare you off — if anything, a tighter game script helps. Higgins also scored a 24-yard touchdown in Week 4 against Tennessee in a matchup that was 6-0 heading into the fourth quarter. This is a solid touchdown look at +350 or better.

Panthers vs Falcons

Tyler Allgeier (+185 at DraftKings) A 

I needed a Bijan Robinson touchdown last week and got burned by Tyler Allgeier, so it’s time to flip the script and back the bigger back at a solid number.

Per Adam Levitan, Allgeier has 13 carries inside the 10 compared to Robinson’s five. When Atlanta gets near the goal line, it’s Allgeier’s show. He’s scored in five of nine games this season, and even after his two-touchdown performance in Berlin, +185 isn’t his shortest price of the year.

With Michael Penix struggling in the red zone — his completion percentage there is worse than Justin Fields’ — expect Atlanta to keep it on the ground. Allgeier is the guy to cash in close.

HC Morris on Tyler Allgeier:

"Tyler is the least-talked about superstar on our football team."

— Underdog NFL (@UnderdogNFL) November 12, 2025

Bengals vs Steelers

Jonnu Smith (+230 at DraftKings) B 

The Pittsburgh offense looked awful in prime time in Week 10, but Aaron Rodgers and his trio of tight ends draw a great matchup this week against a Bengals defense that gets shredded by tight ends almost every game.

Cincinnati has been a disaster defensively, giving up 36.7 points per game over its last seven contests — and that’s not a typo. Tight ends are averaging over 80 receiving yards and 1.3 touchdowns per game against this unit.

Jonnu Smith led all Steelers tight ends in routes last week with a 71% route share. He only saw two targets, but the entire offense struggled to move the ball.

Among the three Pittsburgh tight ends, Smith is priced in the middle for an anytime touchdown, but he’s the best bet to score in what should be a high-total game and one of the softest matchups on the slate.

49ers vs Cardinals

George Kittle (+180 at DraftKings) A-

I wanted to back Trey McBride, but I can’t justify the short price at +115. Instead, I’ll take the tight end who led his position in Week 10 with four red-zone targets and scored at +150 in a tougher matchup than he’ll face in Week 11.

The Cardinals were down double digits for nearly the entire game last week, and the 49ers’ passing attack could get a boost with Brock Purdy returning. With Brandon Aiyuk unlikely to practice and Ricky Pearsall still sidelined since Week 4, San Francisco will need George Kittle to step up in a must-win divisional matchup.

As a field-goal favorite on the road, getting the second-shortest TD prop at +180 is a good price that I'd play to +145/+150.

Seahawks vs Rams

Colby Parkinson ( +750 at DraftKings) B

This is a big number for a tight end who saw three red-zone targets last week, just one behind George Kittle’s league-leading four at the position.

It might look like a long shot, but Matthew Stafford has been on fire with four passing touchdowns and no interceptions over his last three games. The Rams also kept throwing late last week, even with a comfortable lead.

Although Colby Parkinson sports only one touchdown this season, he’s had at least one red-zone target in four straight games and led the Rams’ tight ends in snap share last week at 57%. Stafford also leans on his tight ends near the goal line — they’ve accounted for seven of his 25 touchdown passes this season.

Chiefs vs Broncos

RJ Harvey (+120 at DraftKings) A- 

J.K. Dobbins didn’t practice Thursday, which opens the door for RJ Harvey to take on a full workload — and he’s more than capable of handling it.

Getting an RB1 in a competitive matchup at better than even money is solid value. This backfield had been a timeshare, but if Dobbins sits (and an IR stint is reportedly possible), it’s hard to see Tyler Badie cutting much into Harvey’s volume.

Harvey is a complete back and game-script-proof thanks to his work in the passing game. The rookie has five total touchdowns over his last four games — three through the air and two on the ground — and with a bye coming in Week 12, he should get all the touches he can handle. A potential 70% workload makes this touchdown price well worth the play.

Ravens vs Browns

Charlie Kolar (+1100 at DraftKings) B- 

I might be taking a few too many long shots in Week 11, but DraftKings is hanging a great number on Charlie Kolar, who’s scored in two of his last three games. He’s been priced at +850, +950, and +1700 during that stretch, and with the move back to Lamar Jackson plus a tough Browns run defense, the setup makes sense.

Kolar played 44% of the snaps last week as Baltimore used 11 personnel on just 18% of plays against Minnesota. Despite being the team’s No. 3 tight end, he’s seeing roughly the same target volume as DeAndre Hopkins — who’s +330 to score.

I’ll take a half-unit shot on Kolar this week, banking on some play-action near the goal line to get No. 88 another touchdown.

Lions vs Eagles

Saquon Barkley (-105 at DraftKings) A+

Cowboys vs Raiders

Tyler Lockett (+370 at DraftKings) B- 

Tyler Lockett is fresh off his game as a Raider, leading the team in both targets (6) and receiving yards (44).

It’s a long shot, but I like backing WR2s at +300 or better, especially against a pass-funnel defense like Dallas. Lockett is also the only Raiders receiver to see a red-zone target over the last two games.

Week 11 anytime touchdown parlay

Saquon Barkley

Derrick Henry

Jaylen Warren

Woody Marks

+1052 at DraftKings

It’s a 10/1 TD parlay featuring Barkley and Derrick Henry at the highest odds I’ve ever seen for them to score.

I’m also adding Jaylen Warren, who is set to run all over the Bengals, and Woody Marks, who has a dream matchup against the Titans and has taken over RB1 duties ahead of Nick Chubb.

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