The Washington Commanders and Miami Dolphins will both look to start climbing out of the basement when they meet in Madrid on Sunday morning.
My Commanders vs. Dolphins anytime touchdown picks have selected two prime targets from either side, one of which is a bigger long shot than the other.
Read more in my NFL picks for Sunday, November 16.
Commanders anytime touchdown pick
Robbie Chosen (+800 at FanDuel)
The Miami Dolphins are allowing nearly 26 points per game to grade out as a bottom-10 defense, and they’ve been vulnerable against both the run and the pass.
With that said, they’ve ranked eighth in red zone scoring defense, allowing a touchdown on just 54% of trips, so we’ll have to get a little creative when it comes to how we find a way into the end zone.
While the Washington Commanders aren’t exactly airing it out a ton, that’s changed with Marcus Mariota, who ranks fifth with 15.5% of his attempts traveling 20 or more yards downfield.
The Dolphins haven’t given up a hefty number of targets on deep balls, but have ranked ninth-worst in allowing 41.9% of those attempts to be completed.
That’s got me eyeing journeyman wideout Robbie Chosen here.
With so many injuries to Washington’s receivers, he will step into the starting lineup and stands as one of the players on the team that’s taken the largest share of targets 20 or more yards downfield.
We know Mariota will look to throw deep in this offense, and that Miami will give up completions, so why not look to the narrative with Chosen against his former club?
Dolphins anytime touchdown pick
Julian Hill (+500 at FanDuel)
On the Dolphins’ side of things, we have an excellent opportunity to cash in on some premier value with tight end Julian Hill. The three-year veteran had been playing around 60% or more of the snaps until picking up an ankle injury, but now he’s fully healed and ready to step into the starting lineup once again.
That’s significant when you consider the Commanders have allowed eight red zone targets to tight ends this year, the fifth-most in the league, and rank just 20th in DVOA against the position overall.
Hill has received three red zone targets to Darren Waller’s four this year, but now that Waller is out of the picture, he will once again be looked to as a top red zone option for Tua Tagovailoa in a spicy matchup.
Washington has allowed opponents to score on 66.7% of red zone trips, the seventh-worst mark in football. With the Dolphins’ tendency to throw short — particularly in close — Hill’s got a fighting chance.
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