Vanderbilt vs Georgia Odds, Picks and Predictions: All Signs Point Towards the Under

Georgia looks to continue its undefeated season when it hosts Vanderbilt on Saturday afternoon.

Though not as dominant as a season ago quite yet, the Dawgs have won five of their six games by double-digits to start the year. They come into this one off a win against Auburn by a score of 42-10.

Vanderbilt is much more improved and competitive. The Commodores are 3-3 and are coming off a loss against Ole Miss in a game that they led for a little over a half. How will Saturday's matchup shape out?

Find out in our college football picks and predictions for Vanderbilt vs Georgia on Saturday, October 15. 

Vanderbilt vs Georgia best odds

Vanderbilt vs Georgia picks and predictions

Georgia has been an absolute Under-machine for me, and I’m not planning to back off that trend anytime soon.

How is Vanderbilt going to score with any degree of consistency in this one? I certainly don’t have a clue, as Vandy gets dominated at the point of attack. Under head coach Clark Lea, the Commodores have improved in virtually every metric, but this is the one part that has yet to be fixed from the previous regime. You can get away with that against some teams, but against the powers of the SEC, it’s going to be an issue.

Look at what happened when the Dores’ played Alabama — a very reasonable comparison to Georgia in the trenches. Vandy was 1-for-13 on third down and mustered just three points in the entire game. The reason for its anemic third-down percentage? Getting caught in long-down distances far too often.

Why? Tackles for losses and sacks on previous downs. Vanderbilt put up just 1.2 line yards per rush, which is well below average for Power Five teams.

This led to an overall 29% success rate on passing downs, which is also below the Power Five average. I expect Georgia to replicate this. The Bulldogs have the personnel to do so and, in fact, a rate slightly above Alabama in key line-of-scrimmage metrics such as line yards and stuff rate.

I prefer taking this angle versus isolating the Vandy team total. It gives us a little more wiggle room in case the Dores’ get a surprise score or two.

I’m also not confident that Georgia scores a ton. The Dawgs have averaged 35 points in the last three games and that sounds like a lot, but it came against pretty poor competition, and that amount would be perfectly suitable for us to get this one Under.

I also think Vandy can at least present a few matchup issues that could slow down the Bulldogs early. Vanderbilt isn’t going to give up a ton through the air — at least early on. I’m by no means saying the Commodores possess a good pass-defense, but against the traditional powers, their game plan seems to shift.

Heisman winner Bryce Young started slowly against them back in Week 4. The overall stats may not be showing it, but the Tide posted just their second 0% success rate on passing downs for the entire quarter against Vandy. That was mostly due to Alabama finding the most success on the ground and sticking with that.

Georgia will probably venture to do the same, given how much of an advantage its offensive line will have against the opposing D-line. Just as it often has so many times this season, that means the clock will keep ticking, which means things will trend toward another Under.

My best bet: Under 58.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Vanderbilt vs Georgia spread analysis

Georgia is going to win this game comfortably. I have no interest in playing a pregame side because I feel I can get a much better number live. Georgia has made a habit of coming out slow. This has offered some pretty fantastic in-game numbers on a team that isn’t quite as dominant as a season ago.

As I already touched on, this all comes down to Georgia dominating the line of scrimmage. Vandy is much improved and is likely going to go Over its season win total, but it still has lingering issues upfront. You can’t expect to win or even hang around games with a team like Georgia when you can’t hold your own in the trenches. 

Throw out the Missouri game, and Georgia has defeated both conference opponents by 30 or more this season. That includes a 32-point performance against Auburn last week.

Vanderbilt vs Georgia Over/Under analysis

Georgia is in this weird space where they haven’t played many tough opponents. This has afforded them the luxury of keeping the offensive play calling fairly vanilla, so they don’t put a ton on film. Tougher tests await after the Bulldogs' bye week, and they’ll want to do whatever they can to keep that stuff of film.

What this game may offer is an opportunity to middle the number.

If you’re not familiar with middling, it’s when you get action in on both sides of a number in the hopes of hitting both. It’s a strategy that's relatively low-risk and can be extremely profitable in a sport with such vast swings — such as college football.

I expect this number to plummet throughout the first quarter. Quietly, Georgia has been pretty atrocious on its first drives outside of a 70-yard touchdown against Kent State. In addition to that, the Bulldogs have been really bad in the first quarter overall by averaging just four points in their last three games.

If I can get a number that’s more than a touchdown off the pregame total, then I’ll be looking to middle that number.

Vanderbilt vs Georgia betting trend to know

Georgia has gone Under the pregame total in five of its last six games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Vanderbilt vs. Georgia.

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