USC vs Arizona Odds, Picks and Predictions: Trojans Thrive After Bye Week

The Trojans may be without star WR Jordan Addison, but their offense is way too talented to be slowed down by this poor Arizona defense. Expect the offense to roll and the defense to get just enough stops for USC to cover this 15.5-point spread.

Phil Naessens - Betting Analyst at
Phil Naessens • Betting Analyst
Oct 27, 2022 • 09:43 ET • 4 min read
Caleb Williams USC Trojans Pac-12 college football
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Week 9 of college football odds gives us a game with a 77.5-point total when Arizona hosts No. 10 USC in the Wildcats’ Homecoming game.

USC is 6-1-0 and coming off an away loss to No. 20 Utah. Arizona is looking to snap a two-game losing streak when the two meet Saturday night. 

Will USC spoil the Wildcats’ Homecoming festivities? Find out in our free college football picks and predictions for USC vs. Arizona below.

USC vs Arizona best odds

USC vs Arizona picks and predictions

The Trojans enter this matchup after its first loss of the season and I think their big-time offense will bounce back and cover this 15.5-point spread.

Sophomore QB Caleb Williams is the real deal, throwing for 1,971 yards and 19 TDs with just one interception. He's responsible for a USC offense averaging 475 total yards of offense and north of 40 points per game.

Williams is surrounded by weapons and has three wideouts with over 200 receiving yards and a combined 11 TD receptions. WR Jordan Addison is their leader but the junior speedster is currently on the injury report with a leg injury suffered in the Utah loss. Wideouts Mario Williams and Tahj Washington should be able to fill the void and RB Travis Dye will likely get his number called a bit more often.

Williams was sacked four times in the loss to Utah, but he won’t be worried about that on Saturday. Arizona has nine sacks and he’ll have all day to sling the ball against a soft secondary with just two interceptions this season. The Wildcats don’t have the playmakers to stop this Trojans' offense, and the Wildcats’ offense will be looking up at the scoreboard all night long.

The Arizona offense is good. Sophomore QB Jayden de Laura has thrown for 2,274 yards with 19 TDs and seven miscues. He has big-play wideouts like Jacob Cowing, Dorian Singer, and Tetair McMillan, with a combined 1,802 yards and 15 TDs for an offense averaging 466 total yards and 31 points per game.

The Trojans' defense can be stingy at times and de Laura will may have trouble against a USC side with a dozen interceptions and 24 sacks. The Wildcats’ O-line has done a terrific job keeping de Laura’s jersey clean, but USC will relentlessly chase him in hopes of forcing turnovers. 

This Pac-12 contest will be a fun game to watch, but the Trojans’ offense is difficult to stop for even good defensive teams, and Arizona isn’t a good defensive team. With or without Addison, Williams will pick the Arizona defense apart and he has more than enough weapons to get the job done.

Look for Dye to set the tone with the run game and then Williams will take over through the air. It's going to be a long night for the Wildcats. Arizona can also score the football, but besides the away loss to Utah, USC hasn’t allowed more than 28 points in any other game.

They’ll pester de Laura, force him to make bad throws, and get enough stops for USC to cover the spread and ruin the Wildcats’ Homecoming festivities. I’m laying the points and going with USC to cover as my best bet.

My best bet: USC -15.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

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USC vs Arizona spread analysis

We already discussed the spread, but I have additional notes to share.

USC has the 40th-ranked scoring defense facing an Arizona defense ranked 122nd in the college game.

The Trojans are 5-2-0 ATS and 2-1-0 ATS as the away team. Arizona is 4-3-0 ATS and 2-2-0 ATS at Arizona Stadium.

USC senior RB Travis Dye rushed for 76 yards and a TD on 11 carries vs. Utah and has 647 yards with seven TDs. He’s up against a Wildcats’ defense allowing 207 rushing yards per contest this season.

Arizona has covered the spread in their last two meetings, but USC is 4-2-0 ATS over their previous six. The Trojans' +15 turnover margin is the best in the college game. Arizona is -4 and ranks 100th.

USC vs Arizona Over/Under analysis

I did a double-take when I saw this 77.5-point total, but I’m leaning toward the Under Saturday.

Neither side has played a game in two weeks, and there's a chance these squads are rusty early on. USC averages 22 first-half points, whereas the Wildcats average 18, and perhaps they don’t get there.

Both offenses are very good at converting third downs. USC converts 53% of its third-down opportunities, while Arizona checks in at 46%.

The Under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings and 4-0 in their previous four at Arizona Stadium. 

USC vs Arizona betting trend to know

The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Find more NCAA betting trends for USC vs. Arizona.

USC vs Arizona game info

Location: Arizona Stadium, Tucson, AZ
Date: Saturday, October 29, 2022
Kickoff: 6:00 p.m. ET
TV: Pac-12 Network

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USC vs Arizona weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.

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