The Minnesota Twins continue an extended road trip as they face the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight to begin a weekend series.
With flamethrower Jared Jones making his long-awaited return to the mound, my Twins vs. Pirates predictions and MLB picks see him hurling Pittsburgh to a victory
Who will win Twins vs Pirates today: Pirates moneyline (-134)
Taj Bradley and Jared Jones are similar in that they're both uber-talented hurlers under 25 who miss a ton of bats. They also have the same Achilles heel — allowing too much loud contact, and too frequently in the air.
Only one lineup is poised to exploit this flaw, however. The Pittsburgh Pirates have a 112 wRC+ against RHP in the last 20 days, while the Minnesota Twins are well behind with an 86 wRC+.
Pittsburgh’s 40% hard-hit rate will make noise against Bradley’s second percentile average exit velocity and 18th percentile hard-hit rate. I'd play this to -140.
COVERS INTEL: Jared Jones strikes out 9.76 batters per nine innings. He’ll find strikeout aplenty against Minnesota, which has the third-highest K% (24.6%) and third-lowest contact rate (73.6%) over the last 20 days.
Twins vs Pirates Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-130)
Both starters have nasty stuff, so this is a pitcher’s delight. Bradley has a 108 Stuff+, while Jones can touch 100 mph with his heater.
The Twins’ 30.1% hard-hit rate over the last 20 days is the third-worst in the Big Leagues, so they don’t appear equipped to punish Jones’ proclivity for allowing loud contact (eighth percentile hard-hit rate when we last saw him in 2024).
The total is inflated due to the weather (high 70s, winds of 8-10 mph blowing out), but PNC Park has the second-lowest park factor for home runs, which mitigates that concern.
- ML/RL bets: 16-17, -5.53 units
- Over/Under bets: 26-9, +16.54 units
Twins vs Pirates odds
- Moneyline: Twins +115 | Pirates -135
- Run line: Twins +1.5 (-180) | Pirates -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Twins vs Pirates trend
The Pirates are 12-6 in their last 18 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Pirates.
How to watch Twins vs Pirates and game info
| Location | PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date | Friday, May 29, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | Apple TV |
| Twins starting pitcher | Taj Bradley (5-1, 2.77 ERA) |
| Pirates starting pitcher | Jared Jones (0-0. 0.00 ERA) |
Twins vs Pirates latest injuries
Twins vs Pirates weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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