The New York Liberty will look to beat the Phoenix Mercury for the second time in three days as these two teams hook up again tonight.
New York and Phoenix came in well below the total on Wednesday, and I’m backing the Under again in my Mercury vs. Liberty predictions and WNBA picks below.
Mercury vs Liberty prediction
Mercury vs Liberty best bet: Under 170.5 (-110)
The New York Liberty continue to struggle offensively, having averaged 76.0 ppg with a 98.4 offensive rating over their last four games.
The issues of integrating Satou Sabally and Sabrina Ionescu have been amplified by the fact that they can’t keep both on the court. Sabally is back in the lineup tonight, while Ionescu is out again with a back issue.
New York has now hit the Under in four straight games, including Wednesday’s 84-74 victory over the Phoenix Mercury. The Liberty and Mercury rank 10th and 9th in pace, respectively, and with neither team looking to speed up the game, I’m backing the Under, and would do so to as low as 167.5.
COVERS INTEL: The Liberty are holding opponents to 1.06 points per scoring attempt, the fourth-best mark in the WNBA this season, and a tough matchup for a Phoenix team averaging only 11.0 second-chance points per game.
Mercury vs Liberty same-game parlay
The Liberty may not be playing their best basketball of the season, but they showed they had enough to handle the Mercury on Wednesday. They’ll expand the talent gap even further tonight, as the return of Sabally gives New York yet another weapon to deploy. I love the Liberty to cover tonight.
Center Jonquel Jones is another difference maker for the Liberty. Jones was a key factor in Wednesday’s win, scoring 17 points and grabbing 12 rebounds. She should have similar success against an undersized Mercury team that doesn’t have bodies that can contend with her on the glass.
Mercury vs Liberty SGP
- Under 170.5
- Liberty -5.5
- Jonquel Jones Over 8.5 rebounds
- Best bet: 5-4, +0.39 units
- SGP: 1-8, +0.50 units
Mercury vs Liberty odds
- Spread: Mercury +5.5 | Liberty -5.5
- Moneyline: Mercury +195 | Liberty -220
- Over/Under: Over 170.5 | Under 170.5
Mercury vs Liberty trend
The Under is 6-0 in the last six meetings between these teams. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Mercury vs Liberty
| Location | Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY |
| Date | Friday, May 29, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Ion |
Mercury vs Liberty latest injuries
Mercury: Sami Whitcomb G (Out).
Liberty: Sabrina Ionescu G (Out), Marine Fauthoux G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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