UNLV vs California Odds, Picks and Predictions: Plummer Strikes Down Rebel Resistance

The UNLV Rebels travel to Berkeley to take on the California Golden Bears on Saturday. Both teams are 1-0 after easily handling inferior competition in Week 1. 

Now, especially UNLV will be tested. The Rebels have not won back-to-back games since November 2021.

Cal is trying to improve on last year’s 5-7 record and picked up a transfer quarterback that may help them do that. Look for Jack Plummer to have a big day against the Rebels. 

Will UNLV pull off the upset or does Cal go to 2-0? Continue reading for free college football picks for UNLV vs. Cal on September 10.

UNLV vs California best odds

UNLV vs California picks and predictions

Cal quarterback Jack Plummer was a three-year player for Purdue University but entered the transfer portal at the end of last season after being replaced by Aidan O’Connell five games into the 2021 season. 

Coming to Cal, Plummer offered the Golden Bears an upgrade at the position over Chase Garbers. Plummer has a stronger arm and is a better pocket passer. 

When he was at Purdue, Plummer was 319 of 492 passing for 3,405 yards including 26 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. 

His first game with Cal was last Saturday against UC Davis. The competition was not that great but Plummer struggled in his first three possessions, going 0-for-2 with an interception. 

Fortunately, the senior settled down and led the team to two scores in the first half. He finished 23 of 35 for 268 yards, three TDs, and an interception.

"I thought he did a good job of playing through a poor start on offense," Cal head coach Justin Wilcox said. "I think he'll continue to play better."

One area that Plummer needs to improve is his accuracy. He had several passes that were behind receivers. Lead the pass catcher and those completions go for big plays. 

"There were probably seven or eight, or he would tell you, passes in there he usually makes in his sleep," Wilcox said.

I think the jitters are well past him now and they better be because UNLV is a bit better than UC Davis. 

Still, the Rebels’ secondary has plenty of question marks. Losing third-leading tackler Bryce Jackson to New Mexico State was a blow and safety Phillip Hill will have to be a playmaker. He did have three picks last season. 

Cornerbacks Cameron Oliver and Nohl Williams have experience but there isn’t a lot of quality depth behind them. 

Plummer should be able to exploit the secondary. He will have time to pass since UNLV’s defensive line is small and should be easily handled by the Golden Bears. 

With little pressure, Plummer should be able to pick apart the UNLV secondary. The total for passing yards is 237.5 and I believe he will easily hit the Over.

My best bet: Jack Plummer Over 237.5 yards passing (-115 at DraftKings)

UNLV vs California betting preview

Jump to:
•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know

Spread analysis

UNLV was impressive against Idaho State last week but now they play a Power 5 team and this will be a true indication of how good this team is. They are 13.5-point underdogs to Cal, as the line moved from its opening of 12.5.

UNLV quarterback Doug Brumfield had insane numbers against Idaho State. He was 21 of 25 for 356 yards and four touchdowns.

There is no way he duplicates those stats against Cal on Saturday. The Golden Bears were 78th in the country last year in passing yards allowed, averaging 229.5 a game. 

UNLV's running game also won’t have the success it had against Idaho State as Cal is even better in terms of ground defense. The Bears averaged 137.2 rushing yards allowed per game, good for 44th nationally. 

Defense is going to be a concern for UNLV. Cal has a competent quarterback in Plummer who should have time to make throws. The Rebels were 21st in passing yards allowed but lost key players in the secondary that might stretch the remaining players. 

Cal had their warm-up game last week against UC Davis and, after a shaky start, the Bears cruised to a 34-13 victory. 

The Bears are 4-0 against the spread in their last four games and 6-2 ATS overall. UNLV is 4-1 ATS overall and 6-1 ATS in their last seven non-conference games. 

I think the Rebels will find it hard to keep up with Cal and the Bears will cover the 13.5 points.

Over/Under analysis

The total for this game opened at 51 points but has come down as low as 47.5 at FanDuel. Though both UNLV and Cal went Over in their season openers, the stats would hint that the Under might be the play. 

The Over is 6-1 in the Rebels’ last seven games, while the Under is 4-1 in Cal’s last five following an against-the-spread win. 

UNLV won’t score 35 points against the Bears. While its offense is improved, the Rebels have not faced a team like Cal since playing San Diego State in November 2021. They lost that game 28-20. The following week they faced Air Force and lost 48-14. 

Look for the Rebels to score in the 14-to-21 range. Cal’s defense is bigger and faster and should keep the UNLV offense in check. 

Cal’s offense, on the other hand, should go over last year’s average. They have upgraded at quarterback and with the UNLV secondary undermanned, and the defensive line undersized, they should put up anywhere from 28-35 points. 

No matter which side you take, the total of 47.5 is going to be a sweat. In cases like that, I opt for the Over.

UNLV vs California game info

• Location: California Memorial Stadium, Berkeley, CA
• Date: Saturday, September 10, 2022
• Kick-off: 4:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Pac-12 Now

UNLV vs California key injuries

Find our latest College football injury reports.

UNLV vs California weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.

UNLV vs California betting trend to know

The California Golden Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games. Find more NCAA betting trends for UNLV vs. California.

Pages related to this topic