Both the Tennessee Volunteers and the Illinois Fighting Illini were considered College Football Playoff dark horses entering the season. Both then stumbled to 8-4 seasons, unable to upset any of the blue bloods they faced.
A Music City Bowl win would not entirely redeem either season, but my Tennessee vs. Illinois predictions recognize that a Music City Bowl loss would hurt, and thus should expose Josh Heupel’s Volunteers as the paper-thin operation that they are.
Read on for my college football picks for December 30.
Tennessee vs Illinois predictions for the Music City Bowl
Who will win the Music City Bowl?
Both Josh Heupel and Illinois head coach Bret Bielema have suffered one loss in a bowl game in their relatively short stints at these coaching stops. That equal footing removes one usual indicator in bowl-game successes.
In this moment, instead look at the two programs and ponder to which this win would mean more. Tennessee was in the College Football Playoff last year, while Illinois has a chance to win nine or more games in consecutive seasons for the first time in program history.
In 134 years, finding a first is a notable moment. That alone should have engaged better focus from the Illini in the last few weeks.
Tennessee vs Illinois best bet: Illinois moneyline (+116)
The Tennessee Volunteers at least admitted their defensive struggles, firing coordinator Tim Banks after five years in the role. Heupel is never going to consistently have quality defenses.
The Volunteers were particularly bad this season, in giving up quality drives on 44.9% of opposing possessions, a rate in the bottom third of the country. They also allowed 3.93 points per quality drive, No. 107 in the country.
Bad news gets worse when facing the Illinois Fighting Illini. Illinois ranks No. 23 in quality drive rate, managing quality drives on 50.9% of possessions, and then No. 46 in points per quality drive by scoring 3.70 points per opportunity, according to CFB-graphs.com.
With Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer pretty definitively playing in this game, those rates should hold up, and that should be the edge to an upset.
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Tennessee vs Illinois same-game parlay
Tennessee’s defense in 2024 was an anomaly. Heupel was not going to produce quality defenses in back-to-back years. And it is even more depleted in this moment.
Expect both offenses to find repeated successes in a Music City shootout.
Tennessee vs Illinois SGP
- Illinois moneyline
- Over 60.5
Tennessee vs Illinois odds
- Spread: Tennessee -2.5 | Illinois +2.5
- Moneyline: Tennessee -136 | Illinois +116
- Over/Under: Over 60.5 | Under 60.5
Tennessee vs Illinois trend to know
Of the 10 underdogs to cover the spread in bowl games through the weekend, eight won their bowl games outright. Find more college football betting trends for Tennessee vs Illinois.
How to watch Tennessee vs Illinois
| Location | Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN |
| Date | Tuesday, December 30, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 5:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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