Coming off an uneven Week 0 performance, Florida State takes on an SMU program ranked 19th in the preseason AP Top 25 at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee on Monday, Sept. 7 at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN).
The visiting Mustangs are a 3.5-point favorite, and my SMU vs. Florida State predictions and college football picks are backing Rhett Lashlee's team to turn up the heat even more on Mike Norvell's seat.
SMU vs Florida State predictions
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Early SMU vs Florida State spread pick: SMU -3.5
Before seeing Florida State play New Mexico State in Week 0, I would have had a harder time backing SMU to cover as a 3.5-point favorite in Tallahassee, but it looks like Mike Norvell is no longer a dead man walking ... he's already dead.
The Seminoles were up just 17-10 in the second half against an Aggies team that was ranked 123rd by SP+ last season and was starting an FCS transfer QB, Trey Hedden. Florida State's secondary was a mess, its passing game was ugly, and it was undisciplined. That won't fly against SMU.
The Mustangs are ranked in the Top 25 nationally in returning production (62%), and return star QB Kevin Jennings behind one of the ACC's most experienced offensive lines. And the defense is built to stop FSU's ground game — SMU was 12th in EPA per rush on defense last season.
With that said, I would shy away from taking SMU to cover a bigger spread than -3.5.
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Early SMU vs Florida State total pick: Under 53.5
Against a defense ranked 121st by SP+ last year, the Seminoles scored 17 points through the first two and a half quarters. That was with new starting QB Ashton Daniels at the helm, who has far more turnover-worthy plays in his career (42) than TD passes (25).
If SMU's defense hones in on stopping the three-headed running back room Norvell deployed last week and forces FSU to win with Daniels' arm, the Seminoles could struggle to score more than 23 points — a number they went over just twice in their final six games last year.
And Florida State's defense should be able to contain SMU enough to keep the Under in good shape. The Seminoles were ranked 38th on defense by SP+ last year and have a talented front seven capable of containing a Mustang's run game that's a far cry from the Pony Express.
While I'm projecting SMU to win 27-23, the Under becomes a tougher play for me if the game total drops below 53.5.
SMU vs Florida State odds
- SMU vs Florida State spread: Florida State +2.5
- SMU vs Florida State moneyline: SMU 61%, Florida State 39%
- SMU vs Florida State Over/Under: 53.5
How to watch SMU vs Florida State
- SMU vs Florida State matchup
- Date: Monday, Sept. 7, 2026, 7:30 p.m. ET
- City: Tallahassee, FL
- Venue: Doak Campbell Stadium
- TV: ESPN
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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