SMU vs Florida State Cheat Sheet: Live Probabilities, TD Props & Expert Picks

C Jackson Cowart - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
C Jackson Cowart • Betting Analyst 10+ years betting experience
Updated: Sep 7, 2026 , 03:30 PM ET

Our SMU vs Florida State cheat sheet has everything you need for this college football Week 1 matchup, including live win probabilities, touchdown props, expert picks, and more.

SMU vs Florida State cheat sheet, Southern Methodist Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings (7) and wide receiver Roderick Daniels Jr. (13) in action against Florida State.
Photo By - Jerome Miron / Imagn Images via Reuters Connect. Southern Methodist Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings (7) and wide receiver Roderick Daniels Jr. (13) in action against Florida State.

College football Week 1 wraps up tonight with No. 19 SMU visiting Florida State at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) from Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Fla. The Mustangs are making their 2026 season debut, while the Seminoles are looking for a sharper performance after an uneven Week 0 win over New Mexico State.

Our SMU vs. Florida State cheat sheet is your one-stop shop for this Week 1 matchup, featuring live win probabilities via prediction market apps, the best touchdown markets, our college football expert picks, and more ahead of kickoff in Tallahassee.

SMU vs Florida State probabilities: Who will win in Tallahassee?

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SMU vs Florida State touchdown props

Market Kalshi
Probability
SMU SMU to score first TD 71%
Florida State Florida State to score first TD 47%
SMU SMU to score 2+ rushing TDs 75%
SMU SMU to score 2+ receiving TDs 75%
Florida State Florida State to score 2+ rushing TDs 75%
Florida State Florida State to score 2+ receiving TDs 75%

SMU vs Florida State expert picks

Expert pick Kalshi
Probability
SMU SMU -2.5 53%
SMUFlorida State Under 53.5 51%
SMU SMU ML 58%

SMU vs Florida State cheat sheet

SMU vs Florida State cheat sheet

Expert SMU vs Florida State picks

Here's everything you need to know to prepare for today's SMU vs. Florida State matchup in Tallahassee:

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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C Jackson Cowart
Betting Analyst

C Jackson Cowart is a content strategy consultant for Covers with a special focus on big events and research projects. In his seven years covering sports betting as a predictive analyst, features writer, and industry reporter, he has stayed true to "process over results" while specifically targeting futures betting and news-driven markets, where he can lean on advanced metrics and an understanding of market psychology to attack value before the number moves.

An award-winning writer and editor with a decade of experience in sports media, "C-Jax" has previously worked with ESPN, Forbes, theScore, and multiple large daily newspapers. He's a proud graduate of the University of North Carolina, where he covered the Tar Heels' championship run through the 2017 NCAA men's basketball tournament. He's cashed some big tickets over the years — including Lamar Jackson to win MVP (twice) — but he's still haunted by enough second-place slips to wallpaper his home office.

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