Thunderstorms are still possible when No. 19 SMU visits Florida State tonight at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN), but the latest forecast in Tallahassee, Fla., has turned less threatening ahead of kickoff from Doak Campbell Stadium.
The National Weather Service lowered rain chances this morning after overnight storms reduced the potential for widespread afternoon development. Lightning and brief heavy rain remain possible if a storm reaches the stadium, but that seems less likely than it did at first. Here's the latest SMU vs. Florida State weather report and what it could mean for the game and Kalshi prediction markets.
SMU vs Florida State weather forecast
The National Weather Service gives Tallahassee a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight, mainly after 5 p.m. That keeps a storm risk in the hours surrounding kickoff, but it's a notable downgrade from the more aggressive forecast overnight.
Forecasters said overnight storms left the atmosphere less favorable for another widespread round during the day, and short-range models remain split on how much new thunderstorm activity develops. If storms do form, the better chance comes late this afternoon or early in the evening.
Otherwise, conditions should be hot and humid. Temperatures are expected to reach the low 90s during the afternoon before falling into the 80s during the game. Background winds should remain light at around 5 mph.
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How weather could impact SMU vs Florida State
Lightning remains the biggest concern. Even an isolated thunderstorm near Doak Campbell Stadium could interrupt warmups or force a delay, like we saw with Clemson vs. LSU on Saturday, so the lower rain probability doesn't completely eliminate game-day weather risk.
If a storm crosses the stadium after kickoff, a quick downpour could make the natural-grass surface slick and affect footing, grip, and ball security. But the latest forecast suggests this likely won't be a "rain game" like it appeared to be at first.
Wind should be a minor factor unless it comes with a thunderstorm. Outside of individual cells, light winds are unlikely to have much effect on passing or kicking.
How weather could impact SMU vs Florida State prediction markets
Kalshi traders currently give SMU a 57% probability of winning Monday night, compared to 43% for Florida State. The updated forecast offers little reason to expect weather to favor either team.
The total is the more obvious market to watch. Kalshi currently prices the probability of more than 53.5 points at 50%, essentially a coin flip. A thunderstorm affecting several possessions could matter, but the reduced storm chances don't justify a major weather adjustment before kickoff.
The current forecast isn't enough to treat this as a rain game. Still, a storm moving directly over Doak Campbell Stadium around kickoff could change conditions quickly.
How to watch SMU vs Florida State
| Location | Bobby Bowden Field at Doak S. Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL |
| Date | Monday, Sept. 7, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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