Marathoners are idiots. The concept is based on a story of a Greek messenger, Philippides, racing to Athens to relay a claim of victory, only to die as soon as he said, “We have won!”. And yet, running even further than Philippides did is now seen as a rite of passage for many in their 20s, 30s, and 40s.
Idiots.
However, idiots often make the world go round. Exhibit A: The Alabama fan who earlier this season said if she ever won the lottery, she would use the hundreds of millions to donate enough to Alabama to fire head coach Kalen DeBoer. Of course, the Tide now have the third-shortest national championship odds at FanDuel, sitting at +650, behind only Ohio State (+430) and Oregon (+550).
Any marathoner who can walk up the stairs the day after their 26.2 miles has undoubtedly built a massive training base before venturing into truly longer runs. They took the longest view in the room.
Similarly, this weekly process does not need to think about the whole 16-week season in one fell swoop. Three straight winning weeks have now run the season’s log to four winning weeks and three losing weeks, that latter grouping unfortunately yet more dramatic, but chipping away at it should yield success before the finish line.
Last week’s 3-2 record for +1.17 units raises the season’s record to 16-19 and -2.85 units. Week 7’s college football predictions can further help this cause …
College football predictions Week 7
Alabama -3 (-110 at DraftKings)
TCU -1.5 (-106 at FanDuel)
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Navy at Temple Under 54.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
Will Pauling Touchdown (+200 at DraftKings)
Arizona moneyline (+105 at FanDuel)
Alabama -3
Speaking of the Alabama Crimson Tide, they have not only won all four games since their season-opening loss at Florida State; they have also gone 4-0 ATS since that debacle. For the sake of genuine numbers, let’s ignore Alabama’s 73-0 win against UL-Monroe as 34-point favorites. In the last three games, all against Power Four opponents, the Tide have exceeded bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 5.5 points per week.
Alabama very well may be the power we thought it was in the preseason. That Week 1 loss simply gained too much meaning in our minds, given its national stage and Week 1 emphasis, when we all were most starved for football.
Against the Missouri Tigers, the Tide should be able to put up some points, inherent to what has become the nation’s best passing offense in terms of expected points added (EPA) per dropback, per CFB-graphs.com.
More notably, the Tide should shut down this Tigers offense. Missouri leans on the run at a rate in the top quarter of the country, but that methodical approach will eventually crack against Alabama.
Simply enough, while there may not be a clear way to beat the Tide, relying on a rushing offense is not the way to victory, given Alabama’s offense is going to produce so much more reliably.
With this spread so short, that edge alone is enough justification to back the Tide even if Paul Finebaum and some Alabama fans have been trying to jump ship all season.
TCU -1.5
It sure sounds like Kansas State Wildcats running back Dylan Edwards may be limited by a foot/ankle worry for some time, an acknowledgement from Wildcats head coach Chris Klieman after Kansas State was robbed of a win at Baylor last weekend.
I have quipped Every Man A Dead Wildcat this season, but ... Kansas State lost this game because there was almost a dead Wildcat.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 5, 2025
Instead of this being a clear and easy touchdown, the "lost helmet" stoppage halted it and Kansas St settled for a FG.
Need a clear path rule. https://t.co/zYdyMXFMnn pic.twitter.com/KR8tvlJVbN
If Edwards is at all limited, this Wildcats offense struggles immensely. And TCU’s offense is simply too good not to take advantage of any such lapse on the other side of the ball.
The TCU Horned Frogs throw the ball 9.4% more often than would be expected from an average team in a given game state, the 15th-highest rate in the country. That urgency eventually breaks through.
Against FBS opponents this season, TCU is 3-1 against the spread, with the lone loss coming by only a hook, exceeding bookmakers’ expectations by an average of — know what? Let’s remove the 48-14 win at North Carolina as 3.5-point favorites; clearly, too much of the world did not recognize how much more difficult it is to coach in college football’s chaos compared to the sterilized environment of the NFL — in TCU’s last three games, it has exceeded bookmakers’ expectations by an average of just 1.5 points per game.
However, that slim margin somewhat underscores how this passing offense always eventually breaks through. As Kansas State has struggled to prevent explosive pass plays this season, Horned Frogs quarterback Josh Hoover should pad his stats with some impressive touchdowns.
This short spread should be easily covered by a few such highlights.
Navy/Temple Under 54.5
Few things are more important to the Navy Midshipmen than beating Air Force. Frankly, there may be only one thing more important to Navy than beating Air Force: Beating Army.
That showed last weekend, the Midshipmen most notably springing a 59-yard touchdown run from quarterback Blake Horvath by faking a handoff to backup quarterback Braxton Woodson. Yes, you read that correctly.
Navy should dial back the offensive aggression this week. That is natural when not facing Air Force. The Midshipmen should beat the Temple Owls, but it will not be easy.
That Air Force and Navy barnburner yesterday?
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 5, 2025
It was by design.
Do not expect that pace to continue. https://t.co/QTBJlOKKAU pic.twitter.com/NQ28wGk2sS
The Owls hold up well against the pass, perhaps not something you normally expect to care about against Navy, but very much an explosive concern these days. Removing chunk pass plays from the Midshipmen's quiver will slow this game down and turn it into a more typical slog against a service-academy option attack.
Do not be shocked if both teams enjoy only eight or nine possessions, far below the national average of 12+ per game. This total does not reflect such a shortened game.
Will Pauling Touchdown
The Wisconsin transfer slot receiver has caught a touchdown pass in each of the last two games, seeing nine of his 14 targets this season in just those two games.
Fellow slot receiver Jaden Greathouse missed last week’s win against Boise State and is officially questionable this week. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish may be cautious with his hamstring worry, prioritizing full health before asking Greathouse to take off downfield.
That will lead to more opportunities for Pauling, and he's made the most of them.
He should get plenty more chances against one of the worst passing defenses in the country, even if the stats do not outright betray that. NC State cannot trust its defense.
Irish quarterback CJ Carr is slowly gaining more attention. Connecting with Pauling for a third week in a row against an overmatched pass defense will only further that trend.
Arizona moneyline
A few trusted thoughts all line up with the short home underdog against the BYU Cougars.
First of all, never trust a short road favorite that struggles to turn quality drives into points. BYU ranks No. 3 in the country in quality drive rate, but No. 85 in points per quality drive. Squandering a couple such opportunities will be costly, and the Arizona Wildcats will likely force such botched moments where it matters most, ranking No. 23 in the country in points per quality drive against.
Secondly, side with the team with the higher ceiling of an offense when the margins are as close as these seem to be, especially when that is the home team. By passing the ball 9.3% more often than would be expected from an average team in a given game state, the Wildcats raise their ceiling, certainly when compared to the Cougars who pass the ball nearly 5% less often than expected, the 25th-lowest rate in the country.
Lastly, Arizona is 4-0 ATS at home this season, exceeding bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 12.4 points in those four home games.
Some Wildcat has to win this weekend, right? Looking around, it certainly will not be Northwestern (at Penn State) or Kentucky (idle). And we have already spent too much time doubting Kansas State.
My weekly CFB best bets column is 16-19 this season for -2.85 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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