If you're trying to make sense of college football bowl game best bets this winter, Brad Powers argues the rules have changed. In a landscape reshaped by the transfer portal, NFL opt-outs, and coaching churn, he says the sharpest edges come from information and timing more than spreadsheets.
From his blunt take on Fernando Mendoza's Heisman ceiling to targeted positions on unstable bowl teams, Powers outlines a pragmatic playbook for bettors who want to profit in a postseason where availability, motivation, and market movement matter more than ever.
Check out his NCAAF picks and analysis below.
Frisco Bowl: 
UNLV vs 
Ohio best bet
Pick: UNLV -4.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Powers makes this play primarily on program turbulence at Ohio, where uncertainty at the top can ripple through the locker room. In bowl season, he argues, off-field unknowns are on-field liabilities. UNLV's relative continuity and a clearer prep runway tip the equation.
"Ohio's coach was put on administrative leave," he explains. "What's up in the air? He's been on leave now for two weeks and there's got to be a lot of uncertainty for the players"
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Arizona Bowl: 
Miami (OH) vs 
Fresno State best bet
Pick: Fresno State -3.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
The edge here is timing. Powers notes that certain college football opt-outs or transfers take longer to get fully priced into lines. That lag can leave a point or more of value on the table early in bowl week, particularly when the market is still reconciling depth chart changes.
In the case of Miami, their top offensive player, Kam Perry, and their top defensive player, Adam Trick, are both in the transfer portal.
"Usually two weeks out of a bowl game, some of these key transfers or opt-outs aren't totally priced in unless you're talking about a starting quarterback," he says. "So you know, those two guys combined are probably worth a point or so. Let's take advantage."
The subtext is clear: don't wait for game day if the informational edge exists now. Conversely, if a headline departure hits late, be ready to pivot, either by buying back at a better number or passing entirely when certainty evaporates.
Cramton Bowl: 
Troy vs 
Jacksonville State lean
Pick: Troy -2.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Cure Bowl: 
Old Dominion vs 
South Florida lean
Pick: Old Dominion +3.5 (+100 at FanDuel)
The Cure Bowl could have been a hum-dinger of a game, but both teams will be missing key personnel.
"South Florida's head coach is leaving, their offensive coordinator is not going to be there, they have a skeleton crew on the offensive side of the ball and, by the way, their starting quarterback is also opting out of this game," Powers says. "In a game with a lot of moving pieces, I'll go with the stable program that has their head coach."
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Why skepticism around Fernando Mendoza matters
Awards set narratives, and narratives move markets. That's why Powers' candid assessment of Fernando Mendoza's Heisman season is more than a hot take — it's a reminder that name recognition can distort pricing. He doubts the long-term projection and the immediate hype, a signal to separate the ceremony from the scoreboard when assessing bowl and futures markets.
"I think he's the weakest Heisman winner probably since Sam Bradford," he says. "That's going back 15 years and maybe even weaker than him."
Powers extends that skepticism to the NFL, warning that context often matters more than raw talent in determining a quarterback's trajectory. His biting quip about a certain NFL destination underlines how fragile projections can be once the draft reshuffles the deck.
"You can have all the talent in the world until you get drafted to the New York Jets and your career will be absolutely ruined," he says.
For bettors, the Mendoza discourse has a practical lesson: beware of halo effects. A Heisman bump can inflate lines, props, or offseason sentiment. Powers' approach is to fade overreactions and anchor on team-level realities like supporting cast, play-calling, and opponent strength rather than assuming an award winner automatically tilts the field in December or beyond.
What really drives bowl betting now
The spreadsheet era gives way to the availability era in bowl season. Powers emphasizes that November power ratings can become obsolete by mid-December because the rosters behind them are in flux. Attrition via opt-outs, transfers, early draft entries, and even minor injuries creates a moving target that models built on season-long data struggle to hit.
"Almost no team has everybody playing uh in a bowl game," he states.
With that, line interpretation becomes an information hunt. If a number looks off compared to your priors, Powers advises tossing out priors until you've audited who is actually suiting up, which coaches are calling plays, and how the portal has reshaped the two-deep. The market's edges are now informational, not purely mathematical.
Motivation also shifts the calculus. Some teams treat bowls like spring practice; others arrive galvanized by a chance at a statement win. While it's difficult to quantify, Powers' framework treats motivation as a tie-breaker once availability and coaching are known. In short: confirm who's playing, who's coaching, and then ask why this team wants this game.
Coaching changes, opt-outs, and the portal: the new bowl calculus
Powers says one of the cleanest angles in modern bowls is fading teams with interim coaches. The coaching carousel now triggers a cascade as assistants leave, star players follow them or hit the portal, practices become disjointed, and game-planning slips. What used to be a motivational bump for a locker room can now be a reliability red flag.
"I like generally fading teams with interim coaches," he says. "Wasn't always the case 10-15 years ago, but it is now."
This instability compounds roster uncertainty. When play-callers change, roles change; when position coaches exit, development stalls; when captains opt out, cohesion suffers. Powers connects these dots before he commits to a side, arguing that coaching stability often predicts fewer late-breaking absences and a higher floor on execution when the bowl spotlight hits.
