It’s crazy to think we’re already at Week 7 of the college football season.
That also means it’s time for the Red River Rivalry. So, you know my Triple Option of college football best bets has a play for this epic matchup between Oklahoma and Texas.
While most of the headlines surround the availability of Oklahoma QB John Mateer, my bet is more of a fade of Arch Manning.
Plus, is this the week where we finally see a huge breakout from Ohio State star wideout Jeremiah Smith?
Find out in my college football picks for Saturday, October 11.
For even more bets, check out Douglas Farmer’s Week 7 college football predictions.
College football best bets Week 7
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Jeremiah Smith |
125+ receiving yards | +225 |
 Texas Longhorns |
Team Total Under 22.5 | -114 |
 Devon Dampier |
Over 50.5 rushing yards | -114 |
| 💲 All three parlayed | +1045 |
Jeremiah Smith 125+ receiving yards
The general consensus is that Jeremiah Smith is the best player in the country, even if the numbers don’t say that this season.
The star Ohio State Buckeyes wideout has been solid this season, but maybe just what we were expecting for a potential Heisman contender. Smith has caught 35 balls for 463 yards and six touchdowns, but he's on got 15 for 148 in the Buckeyes' first two conference games.
But I think this is the week he finally busts out.
For starters, Ohio State QB Julian Sayin has been very efficient this season. He has the Buckeyes’ offense leading the nation in success rate on dropbacks and seventh in EPA per dropback. Smith has also been targeted plenty, with at least nine in each of Ohio State’s last three games.
It feels like Smith just hasn’t been able to bust a big one the last couple of games. But don’t worry, the Illinois Fighting Illini are here to help him out.
The Illini have been torched by opposing passing attacks this season. Illinois enters this matchup ranked 121 in defensive success rate on dropbacks and 87th in opponent yards per attempt. In a recent meeting against USC, they allowed Makai Lemon to go for 152 yards on 11 receptions, including two scores.
Let’s back Smith to torment the Illini secondary all game and take his alternate receiving yards prop of 125+ at a tantalizing +225 payout.
Texas team total Under 22.5
The Chipotle tortilla presser had it right from the start. It sounds like John Mateer will play in this year’s edition of the Red River Rivalry. Just 17 days removed from surgery on his thumb. Incredible stuff.
I like Mateer, who has already scored five rushing touchdowns in the four games he’s played this season, to score an anytime touchdown in this matchup. But the price has come down a bit, so it doesn’t get the best bet treatment.
In this matchup, that’s reserved for something that isn’t reliant on Mateer. Instead, let’s focus on the best unit on the field in this matchup – the Oklahoma Sooners defense.
It took a couple of years, but Brent Venables has built the defense of his dreams in Norman. One that resembles those units he put together at Clemson for all those years.
The Sooners are a dominant force. They rush the passer, they stuff the run, they blitz you from exotic packages and they disguise coverages. Oklahoma leads the nation in defensive success rate, and sack rate, and is second in opponent EPA per play.
Simply, put, they are a nightmare for opposing teams.
So, I can’t imagine what they look like for Arch Manning and the Texas Longhorns. Arch was never going to live up the the massive hype that came along with his name. But I’m not sure many predicted it would be like this. He just looks lost at times. Slow to make reads, and the ball isn’t coming out well.
It all came to a head in last week's loss to Florida, where he completed just 55% of his passes with two interceptions. Texas now ranks 68th in offensive success rate, and 72nd on dropbacks.
To make matters worse, it sounds like running back CJ Baxter will at the very least be limited in this matchup.
Texas scored just seven points in its season-opening loss to Ohio State, and then 21 last week to Florida. There’s no way you can convince me with the way Arch and the offense looks that they’ll do better against what I think is the best defense in the country
Devon Dampier Over 50.5 rushing yards
The Utah Utes host the Arizona State Sun Devils in a massive Big 12 showdown. Utah can’t really afford another conference loss following their defeat against Texas Tech a few weeks ago, if they hope to get revenge in the conference championship.
Meanwhile, Arizona State is 4-1 with a 3-0 record in conference play. But you can make the case that the Sun Devils are a little lucky to have the record that they do.
They’ve needed some Jordyn Tyson heroics and some opponent blunders in order to escape with three-point wins over Baylor and TCU in consecutive weeks.
QB Sam Leavitt has played a little better lately, but he still hasn’t been up to the standard I expected heading into this season.
The Sun Devils defense has had some holes, particularly when it comes to stopping ground games. They enter this matchup ranked 83rd in defensive success rate and 113th in success rate vs. the rush. And they haven’t come across anything like the Utes' dual-threat QB Devon Dampier.
Dampier has been great for the Utes this season, throwing for 1,027 yards with 11 touchdowns and three interceptions while adding 258 yards and a couple more scores on the ground. He has a rushing prop sitting at 50.5. He’s topped that twice this season, and I like him to do it again here.
Dampier will use his arm to open up the Sun Devils' defense, and then tuck it and run to gash them on the ground. Give me the Over.
Triple Option Parlay for Week 7
Jeremiah Smith 125+ receiving yards
Texas team total Under 22.5
Devon Dampier Over 50.5 rushing yards
My weekly Triple Option column is 9-9 this season for -0.54 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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