Not many predicted that the Texas Longhorns would be unranked heading into the 2025 edition of the Red River Rivalry. But Arch Manning has not only not lived up to the hype, he’s been downright bad.
Now, Arch and the Longhorns have to face what is arguably the best defense in the country when they take on the Oklahoma Sooners.
But will they catch a break in avoiding Sooners QB John Mateer, who is still recovering from surgery on his thumb just a few weeks ago?
My Oklahoma vs. Texas predictions and college football picks breakdown this epic rivalry game.
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Oklahoma vs Texas prediction
Oklahoma vs Texas best bet: Arch Manning Over 21.5 rushing yards (-114)
Arch Manning was never going to live up to the hype. But I’m not sure anyone thought his play was going to be this bad.
The Texas Longhorns QB has looked lost throughout the season, and it all came to a head when they travelled to the Swamp to take on the Florida Gators.
Manning and the suddenly suspect-looking Longhorns' offensive line had no answer for the Gators' defensive front. Florida pressured Arch all game long, forcing him into multiple bad throws, including two interceptions while completing just 55% of his passes in what finished as a 29-21 loss for Texas.
He is now completing just 60% of his passes for the season and has thrown at least one pick in all but one game. And now, he must face what looks like the best defense in the country in the Oklahoma Sooners.
Brent Venables’ defense has been a nightmare for opposing QBs this season. The Sooners lead the nation in defensive success rate. They are first against the run and first on dropbacks, and also lead the nation in sack rate.
Now, Arch is still a great athlete and can make things happen with his legs. Well, I think he’s going to have to be here as the Sooners might have him running for his life. Something similar happened in the Florida game, and he ended up with 37 rushing yards. I expect more of the same here.
So, with a modest rushing total sitting at 21.5, let’s take the Over for a number Arch has gone Over in all but one game this season.
It’s Manning’s first taste of the Red River Rivalry, and he may hope it’s his last.
Oklahoma vs Texas same-game parlay - if John Mateer plays
The big question heading into the Red River Rivalry this week is whether or not John Mateer plays. He will be just 17 days removed from surgery on his hand this Saturday, but it sounds like he’s making a push to play, particularly if you ask the local Chipotle employee.
If Mateer plays, he’s going to have a huge impact on this game. Texas has a strong defense; we just saw what happens when they get no support from the offense, as DJ Lagway was able to throw it all over them.
Mateer was the Heisman favorite before getting hurt, throwing for 1,215 yards and six touchdowns, while adding another 190 yards and five scores on the ground. He makes you respect his arm just enough. But when you drop back in coverage, he’s ready to rumble towards that goal line.
Simply put, if he’s playing, not only does he find the end zone, but I don’t know how Texas keeps up with Oklahoma here. So take Mateer to find the end zone while leading the Sooners to a win.
Oklahoma vs Texas SGP
- Arch Manning Over 21.5 Rushing Yards
- John Mateer TD
- Oklahoma moneyline
Oklahoma vs Texas SGP - if John Mateer is out
But of course, we have a contingency plan if Mateer goes through warmups and the Oklahoma staff decides he can’t go.
Oklahoma’s backup is Michael Hawkins Jr., another dual-threat QB whose arm isn’t as scary as Mateer’s. But he started a handful of games for the Sooners last season, and took care of business against Kent State in his last start.
His favorite target in that game was Isaiah Sategna, who has stepped up as the Sooners' best wideout this season. He’s been targeted 25 times, catching 20 of them for 299 yards and three touchdowns over the last three games. I like him to find the end zone again this week.
That said, with no Mateer, expect Oklahoma to commit to the run. And with the struggling Texas offense going against this top-rated Sooners defense, the Red River Shootout may not live up to the name this time around.
Oklahoma vs Texas SGP
- Arch Manning Over 21.5 Rushing Yards
- Isaiah Satenga TD
- Under 43.5
Oklahoma vs Texas odds
- Spread: Oklahoma +1.5 | Texas -1.5
- Moneyline: Oklahoma -104 | Texas -112
- Over/Under: Over 43.5 | Under 43.5
Oklahoma vs Texas trend to know
Texas has only hit the Team Total Over in 1 of their last 5 games for -3.85 Units and a -66% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Oklahoma vs Texas.
How to watch Oklahoma vs Texas
| Location | Cotton Bowl, Dallas, TX |
| Date | Saturday, October 11, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
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