The San Diego Padres will look to get a series win at home as they host the New York Mets in this pick'em affair this afternoon.
These offenses are putrid, but New York should have more success against Randy Vasquez, which is why I’m taking the visitors to win a low-scoring game in my Mets vs Padres predictions. Let’s take a closer look at this matchup as I share my free MLB picks for Sunday, June 7.
Who will win Mets vs Padres today: Mets moneyline (-108)
Randy Vasquez’s base stats (5-3, 3.31 ERA) look solid, but those numbers are hiding concerning trends. Vasquez has an xERA of 6.16, is allowing batters to barrel up on 13.1% of their swings, and is only generating ground balls on 36.4% of swings.
Huascar Brazoban will open for the New York Mets. It’s been nearly impossible to get good contact off of him this year, with batters averaging an exit velocity of 83.3 MPH. That’s rough for a San Diego Padres offense putting up 3.78 runs per game. I’m backing the Mets to win at odds of -125 or better.
COVERS INTEL: The Mets whiff on just 24.8% of their swings, and with Vasquez only generating a 22.2% whiff rate, we can expect New York to make plenty of solid contact against him.
Mets vs Padres Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (+100)
I’ve been all over the Under in this series, and that’s not changing today. The Mets might have some success against Vasquez, but New York hasn’t been great at pounding his favorite pitches — fastballs and cutters — pulling them in the air just 17.5% of the time against righties.
Sean Manaea will get the bulk of the innings for the Mets, and he’s been better as of late, posting a 2.70 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in his last five appearances. These are arguably the two worst offensive teams in MLB, so I’m taking the Under at -110 or better.
- ML/RL bets: 11-16, -5.66 units
- Over/Under bets: 9-16, -7.47 units
Mets vs Padres odds
- Moneyline: Mets -110 | Padres -110
- Run line: Mets -1.5 (+158) | Padres +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Mets vs Padres trend
The Under is 5-1 in San Diego's last six games. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Padres.
How to watch Mets vs Padres and game info
| Location | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date | Sunday, June 7, 2026 |
| First pitch | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNY, Padres.TV |
| Mets starting pitcher | Huascar Brazoban (3-1, 2.25 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher | Randy Vasquez (5-3, 3.31 ERA) |
Mets vs Padres latest injuries
Mets vs Padres weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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