College Football Picks and Predictions Week 9: Night of the Demon Deacons

It’s a bit of an underwhelming week in college football. There is just one Top 25 matchup with a spread below double digits. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t betting value to be found on the schedule.

For instance, Wake Forest is a team being undervalued in its matchup against Louisville, and there is a total on the board that may appear low to the casual observer, but probably looks massive to the Big Ten teams involved. And finally, can Tennessee avoid the dreaded look-ahead spot by taking care of business against Kentucky with Georgia on deck next week?

I break it all down in my best college football picks for betting Week 9.

College football picks and predictions for Week 9

Wake Forest -3.5 (-110)

This line feels a little disrespectful to the Demon Deacons. 

Wake Forest is an overtime loss against Clemson away from being undefeated and Sam Hartman has been the best quarterback in the ACC this season. 

Since returning from a blood clot issue early in the season, Hartman has been cooking opposing defenses. The senior signal-caller has thrown for 1,755 yards with 21 touchdowns compared to just three interceptions. 

That includes tossing six touchdowns with no picks in that game against Clemson. A defense that, in theory, is much tougher than what he and the Deacs will face when they visit the Louisville Cardinals on Saturday afternoon. 

A quick glance at Louisville’s stats and you’ll see it appears the Cardinals do an OK job against the pass ranking 51st in yards per game. A deeper dive though tells us more. 

For starters, Louisville hasn’t played that many great passing teams. You can make the argument the last time the Cardinals faced a decent passing attack was back on Oct. 1 against Boston College where Phil Jurkovec went a crazy 18-for-21 for 304 yards and three TD passes. The Cardinals rank 90th in opponent yards per attempt and 80th in opponent completion percentage this season.

On top of that, the Deacons defense has stepped up as well. They have allowed just 46 points over their last three games and have been solid against the run all season long, giving up fewer than four yards per carry this season.

That should play well against Cards’ quarterback Malik Cunningham, who, while dynamic on the ground, has been an inconsistent passer this season. 

In the end, Louisville won’t be able to keep up with Hartman and Wake Forest, as the Deacs keep up their trend of cashing ATS bets.

Northwestern vs Iowa Under 37.5 (-110)

Northwestern visits Iowa in what might be the ugliest Big Ten matchup of the season. The total for this game is sitting at 37.5. Now, that may look like a rock-bottom number to some, but for these teams, it may as well be a mountain. 

Northwestern has lost six straight games since its season-opening win against Nebraska. That stretch includes embarrassing losses to FCS Southern Illinois and Miami (Ohio) with the Wildcats scoring just 13 points per game over their last four contests. 

And even though things in Iowa aren’t pretty at the moment, the Hawkeyes defense is still elite. They rank in the Top 10 in the country in total and scoring defense and have held opponents to 10 points or fewer five times this season. 

Then there is the Iowa offense. The best way to describe this unit has to be as a dumpster fire. 

Whether it is the awful quarterback play or the nepotism involved with head coach Kirk Ferentz and his son/offensive coordinator Brian, it’s just a mess. The Hawkeyes rank dead last in the country in total yards per game, 129th in yards per play, and 128th in scoring, putting up a minuscule 14 points per game.

Spencer Petras was finally bad enough against Ohio State last week that he forced the team’s hand to make a move. But backup Alex Padilla wasn’t any better, going just 5-for-10 for 32 yards and a pick. 

The Northwestern pass defense is good enough to keep those ugly numbers going, so expect the Hawkeyes to lean on their run game. That means milking the clock for an offense that already ranks 96th in seconds per play.

Both teams’ best offensive player is arguably their punter, which means long fields for bad offenses. Barring a slew of turnovers, this game may barely break 30 total points.

Tennessee -12 (-110)

Kentucky being overrated is a hill I’m prepared to die on this season. So, that’s definitely not going to change when they visit arguably the best team in the country. It’s still hard to believe that I'm referring to Tennessee, but welcome to college football in 2022.

Let’s start with the Kentucky fade. 

While Will Levis may be a first-round pick in the upcoming NFL Draft, he isn’t getting a ton of time to show it. The Big Blue offensive line is arguably the worst in the SEC. 

Levis has been sacked seven times over the three SEC games he's played. In fact, the Kentucky O-line ranks 129th in the country in sack rate. And while the return of Chris Rodriguez has helped the running game, the team is still averaging just 3.3 yards per attempt this season. 

Even when things are going well this is still a Wildcats offense that is averaging just 21.5 points per game against SEC. That won’t fly against this Tennessee team.

Because, speaking of flying, that’s exactly what this Volunteers offense is doing. They lead the nation in total yards and scoring, and quarterback Hendon Hooker has been outstanding. Like, Heisman Trophy outstanding. 

While Kentucky has a solid defense, it’s not like this is the first good unit the Vols have gone against. Pitt couldn’t slow them down. Neither could LSU. And Alabama sure as hell couldn’t, and that Crimson Tide team ranks fifth in opponent yards per play.

I have a hard time believing this Kentucky defense is going to be the one that finally slows Hooker down.

The bottom line is, Tennessee almost forces you to play in a shootout. That means more passing downs for Levis behind that suspect offensive line. And even though the Vols defense isn’t anywhere close to elite, they do a good job of forcing turnovers, ranking 29th in the country in takeaways when facing FBS opponents.

Oh, and did you see these bad boys the Vols are wearing for this matchup? 

???????????????????????????????? ????????????????????????#GBO ????#DICKSHouseofSportKNX pic.twitter.com/5sUrIG6uSq

— Tennessee Football (@Vol_Football) October 25, 2022

At home. At night. In front of 100,000 rabid Tennessee fans. I’m laying the points and feeling good about it.

Week 9 odds overview

Florida vs. Georgia (-22.5)

This year's edition of the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party could be more interesting than this big spread indicates. Anthony Richardson and the Gators have struggled but are they more than three touchdowns worse than a Georgia team that is 4-3 ATS and in a look-ahead spot with a huge matchup against Tennessee looming next week?

Colorado State at Boise State (O/U: 42.5)

Colorado State has played seven games this season. All seven games have landed below the total. That's thanks to an offense that is the second-lowest scoring in the country at just 12.9 points per game. This week they travel to Boise State to take on one of the best defenses in the country.

Ohio State at Penn State (O/U: 60.5)

This total just feels a touch too low. For my money, Ohio State has the best offense in the country. This team is averaging nearly 50 points per game and gets to face a Penn State defense that gave up a 40-burger to Michigan.

The other thing to like about the Over here is that Penn State's offense has been improving this season and goes against an untested Buckeyes defense. The Nittany Lions should put up 20-24 points and help send this game eclipse the total.

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