One of the premier matchups in Week 1 of the college football season sees the Clemson Tigers hosting the LSU Tigers in prime time on Saturday night.
Both teams will be looking to establish their offensive identities, which has me expecting big things out of Caden Durham and Antonio Williams, but less production through the air for LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier.
Let’s take a closer look at my top three player prop bets for this game in my free college football picks for August 30.
LSU vs Clemson props for Week 1
Nussmeier u284.5 passing yards (-114)- Durham o62.5 rushing yards (-114)
Williams o5.5 receptions (+112)
Prop bet #1: Garrett Nussmeier Under 284.5 passing yards
LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier is coming off a huge year through the air, throwing for 4,052 yards and 29 touchdowns in 2024. If we relied only on those numbers, the Over looks almost trivial on his passing yardage prop, as he went for 285+ yards in the air nine times in 13 games last season.
But LSU has signaled that they plan to balance the offense this year, with the running game perhaps even being a bit of a priority. That’s a particularly smart decision in Week 1, as Clemson brings a talented defensive line to bear against an LSU offensive line that’s featuring several new blockers in its rotation and will need some time to settle in.
Clemson was poor against the run in 2024, giving LSU even more reason to try and mix things up offensively. Brian Kelly may also want to control the time of possession a bit against an explosive Clemson offense.
It’s not as though Nussmeier won’t get to throw the ball, but the Under is the smart play on a big total.
Prop bet #2: Caden Durham Over 62.5 rushing yards
If LSU does switch to a more balanced offense or even prioritizes the running game, then Caden Durham stands to benefit the most. After running for 753 yards and six touchdowns last year, Durham should get even more of the ball in his sophomore year, especially as we saw his usage become more consistent down the stretch in 2024.
We know Durham can be effective, averaging 5.4 yards per carry, and he’s a fundamentally safe option, as he didn’t fumble the ball once in his freshman season. He’s also going up against a Clemson defense that allowed a concerning 4.71 yards per rush last year.
An obvious but sensible game plan for LSU would be to use Durham as much as possible to force Clemson to stack the box a bit, at which point Nussmeier and the receiving corps can look to spring some big plays.
Who knows how long LSU will stick to the running game, but it won’t take much for Durham to hit his Over, which is where I’m putting my money.
Prop bet #3: Antonio Williams Over 5.5 receptions
Cade Klubnik was one of the most efficient quarterbacks in college football last year, throwing for 3,639 yards and 36 touchdowns against just six interceptions.
He looked better as the season went along as well, throwing a combined seven touchdowns and completing 50 total passes in his last two games: the ACC Championship against the SMU Mustangs and his College Football Playoff appearance against the Texas Longhorns.
I don’t see any reason why Clemson won’t continue to air out the ball in 2025, and Antonio Williams should get a ton of targets. Williams caught 75 balls for 904 yards in his sophomore season, and should be Klubnik’s No. 1 option this year.
LSU ranked 76th against the pass last year, and struggled to contain talented quarterbacks, especially when they also had to deal with a rushing threat from the signal caller, which Klubnik brings to the table as well.
LSU’s secondary issues will only be exasperated with starting safety AJ Haulcy serving a suspension in the first half of Saturday’s game. I expect Klubnik to feed Williams the ball early and often in Week 1, leading Williams to hit the Over on his receptions total.
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