Like all great college football traditions, my Triple Option column is back for another season, and for my Week 1 edition, I bring back a classic with an Alabama bet.
Plus, a player prop in a matchup of Heisman hopefuls, and there’s no doubt about it, I’m ready to get hurt again with Utah.
Here are my college football picks for Week 1, and check out my guy Doug’s college football predictions while you’re at it.
College football best bets Week 1
Alabama -13.5 (
Cade Klubnik o260.5 passing yards (
Utah -5.5 (Alabama -13.5
Picking the Alabama Crimson Tide ATS in Week 1 of the Triple Option had been a great tradition, like so many others in college football.
However, it was associated with Nick Saban and his unmatched ability to prepare for an opponent when given that much time. So, the bet got a break last season.
But it’s Year 2 of the Kalen DeBoer era in Tuscaloosa and … We’re back, baby!
And for those unfamiliar with the situation, DeBoer’s teams have taken big leaps forward in his second season at the helm. In 2021, he led Fresno State to a 10-3 record, and then he famously took Washington to the national championship game in his second season in Seattle.
Now, he has Alabama set up to do something similar.
The Crimson Tide went 9-4 last season, which included humbling losses to Vanderbilt and a rebuilding Oklahoma squad. And let me tell you, four losses in Tuscaloosa, and it feels like the sky is falling.
But there are brighter days ahead. While last year’s QB Jalen Milroe was talented, he was also volatile, resulting in uneven results. This year’s starter Ty Simpson should actually fit DeBoer’s system better.
Additionally, this is going to be one of the better Alabama defenses we’ve seen in a while.
That doesn’t bode well for Mike Norvell and a Florida State Seminoles team with a lot of question marks. It will be interesting to see Thomas Castellanos running Gus Malzahn’s offense behind a completely reworked offensive line.
This Alabama defensive line will blow up the Seminoles' offense before it can get started, and will be backed up by one of the best secondaries in the country. Lay the nearly two touchdowns with Alabama. Roll Tide.
Cade Klubnik Over 260.5 passing yards
The Clemson Tigers are my pick for the national championship this season. I’m also laying the 3.5 points with the Tigers in this season-opening matchup against LSU.
And there are more similarities between them than the fact that they have the same nickname and both play in a “Death Valley.”
This year, they are also led by Heisman hopeful quarterbacks Cade Klubnik and Garrett Nussmeier. Those QBs also have great wide receiver rooms to throw to. However, I believe Klubnik is better positioned for success in this Top 10 matchup on Saturday.
Klubnik looked like he improved with each game he played last season, showing a great touch on his deep balls and developing great chemistry with both Antonio Williams and Bryant Wesco, who are both back this season.
He’ll also be playing behind a line that should be up for the Joe Moore Award this season.
On Saturday, he’ll face an LSU defense that ranked 75th in success rate vs. the pass and must replace all four starters on the defensive line. To make up for that, LSU will likely try to blitz Klubnik to create pressure, and he has proven more than capable in those situations.
Klubnik will have an excellent opportunity to attack this LSU defense down the field. His passing yard prop is sitting at 260.5. He went over that number in six of his final nine games last season, including in the ACC conference championship and in the CFP vs. Texas.
Klubnik gets his Heisman campaign off on the right foot and goes Over this number.
Utah -5.5
There’s no doubt about it. I’m ready to get hurt again.
The Utah Utes were one of my ride-or-dies in college football last season, and it got off to a solid start until the Baylor Bears ran QB Cam Rising into a Gatorade table, breaking his hand and essentially ending his and Utah’s season.
Now, Rising has finally moved on, and in comes the OC-QB combo of Jason Beck and Devon Dampier Jr. from New Mexico to rework the Utes offense. Dampier threw for 2,768 yards and rushed for 1,116 more with 31 total scores.
This new offense will be on display when Utah opens its season at UCLA.
The UCLA Bruins made waves this offseason when Nico Iamaleava abruptly left Tennessee in an NIL dispute and decided to move closer to home.
Iamaleava is talented but still has a lot of room for growth after struggling in the Vols' biggest games, which included an embarrassing effort in the first round of the CFP to eventual national champion Ohio State.
Now, he must learn a completely new system, playing behind an offensive line composed entirely of transfers, and going up against a defense that is one of the best in the country year in and year out in college football.
After being a big Nico fan a year ago, I’ll happily fade him in this spot.
Triple Option Parlay for Week 1
Alabama -13.5
Cade Klubnik o260.5 passing yards
Utah -5.5
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
