This year’s edition of the Fiesta Bowl is a quarterfinal matchup of the College Football Playoffs between the Penn State Nittany Lions and the Boise State Broncos on New Year’s Eve.
Here are my favorite Penn State vs. Boise State player props for Tuesday, December 31, highlighted by an Ashton Jeanty Over.
Penn State vs Boise State props for the Fiesta Bowl
Ashton Jeanty Over 131.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Harrison Wallace III Over 41.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)- Kaytron Allen anytime TD (-135 at BetMGM)
Picks made on 12-30.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Penn State vs Boise State Fiesta Bowl player props
Prop bet #1: Ashton Jeanty Over 131.5 rushing yards
The Penn State Nittany Lions boast one of the best rushing defenses in the nation, allowing only 100.4 yards per game on the ground. They also just held SMU to only 58 rushing yards on 36 attempts in their first Playoff game. However, it should be noted that team rushing yards count sacks as negative rushing yards. The lead running back for SMU, Brashard Smith, still had 62 yards rushing on 18 carries.
Meanwhile, this line for Ashton Jeanty will likely never be lower. He averaged 192.1 yards per game on the ground and only finished below this number twice all year. Once was against an FCS opponent in which he only saw 11 carries, and the other was an October game at UNLV. He still got very close with 127 and 128 yards, respectively, in those two games.
This will be undoubtedly the best defense Jeanty has faced this season. However, Penn State still allowed 169 yards to Oregon’s two running backs on 35 combined carries in the Big 10 championship game. Jeanty will be there to show out, and my college football picks believe he will certainly get the volume to reach this number even if he doesn’t feast with big runs.
Prop bet #2: Harrison Wallace III Over 41.5 receiving yards
The Boise State Broncos' run defense is also very good, but they've had issues with their pass defense this season. They allow 246.8 passing yards per game, and only 25 FBS teams surrender more per game. They've allowed several receivers this season to rack up the yards in individual games.
That is why I want to target a wide receiver here instead of Tyler Warren from the tight end position. Harrison Wallace III seems to be the favorite target of quarterback Drew Allar outside of Warren. He has 43 receptions this season, which is second overall on the team and first amongst wide receivers by a large margin.
After a somewhat slow start to the season, Wallace has gotten at least two catches and at least 45 receiving yards in nine consecutive games. The Broncos have allowed at least one opposing wide receiver to surpass this number in all but two games this season, and one ex exception was an FCS opponent. I like Wallace to be the wideout that does it in this contest.
Prop bet #3: Kaytron Allen anytime TD
This is not a game that I want to look for a multiple touchdown scorer, and that is what you need if you want good odds on a touchdown scorer that is most likely to score like Jeanty. However, we have decent odds here on running back Kaytron Allen for Penn State to just find the end zone once.
While Allen did not finish the regular season strong with finding the end zone, he certainly has been that guy in their two postseason games. He had one rushing touchdown in the Big 10 Championship against Oregon, and then two rushing touchdowns in the first playoff game against SMU.
Allen has 10 total touchdowns this season across nine of his 14 games this season. That is very similar to Nicholas Singleton, who has scored in 11 of his 13 games, yet Singleton ATTD odds are -225. I will take the much better odds on the hot hand of Allen.
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