Oregon State vs Stanford Odds, Picks and Predictions: Beavers Bounce Back

OSU faces off against one of the worst defenses in the country on Saturday night, and being a seven-point road favorite shouldn't be an issue against a Cardinal team that has lost three in a row. Read more in our Oregon State vs. Stanford betting picks.

JD Yonke - Contributor at Covers.com
JD Yonke • Contributor
Oct 6, 2022 • 08:14 ET • 4 min read

Week 6’s nightcap sees the Oregon State Beavers (3-2) travel to Palo Alto to do battle with the Stanford Cardinal (1-3).

If this were any other school, head coach David Shaw would be on the hot seat after another poor start for this Stanford football team. The program has shown no signs of malcontent, however, so it’s straight ahead as normal for the Cardinal.

Meanwhile, Oregon State has had two tough games in a row — narrowly falling to USC at home before getting trounced on the road by Utah.

Will they get right on Saturday? Check out our college football picks and predictions for Oregon State vs. Stanford on Saturday, October 8 to find out.

Oregon State vs Stanford best odds

Oregon State vs Stanford picks and predictions

This should be a get-right spot for Oregon State after two straight losses. Whether Stanford is compliant with this being a bounceback spot will require some further exploration, but there’s a reason the Beavers are favored by a touchdown on the road.

Jonathan Smith’s squad was off to a 3-0 record and feeling confident. They nearly pulled off the upset over USC in Week 4, but four untimely turnovers ultimately ruined their chances in a 17-14 defeat. Last week they had to travel to Salt Lake City to play yet another top team in the conference. It was an obvious letdown spot, and it was — the Beavers fell 42-16 while handing out four more turnovers and losing starting quarterback Chance Nolan to injury.

Nolan’s status is considered “day-to-day”, but this program needs better quarterback play regardless of who is under center. They’ve now thrown a whopping eight total interceptions (six from Nolan and two from backup Ben Gulbranson) in the last two games. That simply isn’t going to cut it for a team that is otherwise pretty good.

The good news in this one is that Stanford has also struggled with turnovers, sitting -11 on the year in turnover margin, while forcing just two turnovers defensively all year. The team’s best cornerback, Kyu Blu Kelly, will miss Week 6’s clash with the Beavers. I expect the Beavers to be able to move the ball in a bounce-back spot against a lifeless Stanford squad that is only being saved from the cellar of the Pac-12 thanks to Colorado’s utter implosion.

Things have gone south quickly yet again this season for the Cardinal, whose lone win this year is against Colgate. Stanford ranks 125th in Defensive Predicted Points Added (PPA). This is a woeful defense now dealing with an injury to arguably its most talented player.

Oregon State thrives when they’re able to run the ball, and that should be the case against a Stanford defense that ranks 130th in Rushing Success Rate.

My best bet: Oregon State -7 (-105 at DraftKings)

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Oregon State vs Stanford spread analysis

This spread opened under a touchdown at some books but quickly moved to -7. There’s a strong possibility the line continues to move in that direction, as finding enough bettors who believe in Stanford at this juncture will be difficult.

The Cardinal are struggling on both sides of the ball, especially in the trenches. For a program that used to pride itself on playing physical football, the Cardinal rank in the Bottom 10 nationally on both lines of scrimmage in many statistics that judge line play.

Stanford is riding the struggle bus, going just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games and 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall. They simply haven’t been able to compete with good teams, going 0-7 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning record.

The Beavers have been undervalued in the betting market, going 4-1 ATS this season. They have typically rebounded well in this spot, going 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up loss. The favorite is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings between these two schools.

Oregon State vs Stanford Over/Under analysis

The Cardinal currently have one of the worst statistical defenses in the nation. To be fair, it must be pointed out that aside from Colgate, they’ve played three very good offenses in USC, Washington, and Oregon.

While Oregon State isn’t quite the offensive juggernaut as some of those teams, Jonathan Smith is a bright offensive mind and the Beavers should consistently field an offense that averages over 30 points per game as the coach finds his groove in Corvallis. The Beavers are averaging a robust 6.6 yards per play and have not been held below 5.3 yards per play in any game this season.

The passing game has been able to move the ball all year, ranking 25th in Passing PPA, but it’s the turnovers that will need to stop. Expect the rushing attack to move the ball against a Stanford defense that ranks 131st in Rushing PPA. Stanford has a very talented quarterback in Tanner McKee, but the issue has been giving him time to pass with multiple offensive linemen injured.

The good news is that the Beavers rank just 92nd in Havoc created by the front seven, so McKee could have more time than usual to find a talented crop of receivers. The Beavers rank just 105th in Rushing Success Rate defensively, while Stanford checks in at 22nd in Rushing Success Rate offensively despite facing a difficult level of competition.

Both teams should be able to move the ball in this contest and the total is set at a manageable 56.5.

Oregon State vs Stanford betting trend to know

Stanford is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games against a team with a winning record. Find more NCAA betting trends for Oregon State vs. Stanford.

Oregon State vs Stanford game info

Location: Stanford Stadium, Stanford, California
Date: Saturday, October 8, 2022
Kickoff: 11:00 p.m. ET

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