Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State Picks and Predictions: Can Sooners Continue Their Bedlam Series Domination?

Oklahoma looks to continue its Bedlam Series winning ways against Oklahoma State in Stillwater Saturday, with first place in the Big 12 on the line. Read more in our Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State picks and predictions.

Last Updated: Nov 27, 2021 3:34 PM ET Read Time: 5 min
Caleb Williams Oklahoma Sooners college football
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We'll get the annual Bedlam rivalry on Saturday, as the Oklahoma Sooners and Oklahoma State Cowboys meet in Stillwater. The stakes are even higher this year, as the winner will move atop the Big 12. 

Find out if the Sooners will continue to dominate this series on the road with our Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State picks and predictions.

Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

A majority of the bets in this game are coming in on the Cowboys, who opened as 3.5-point favorites and are now laying either 4 or 4.5 nearly everywhere. The total, which opened at 51.5, is now down to anything from 49.5 to 51, despite a healthy number of bets coming in on the Over. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.

Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State predictions

Predictions made on 11/23/2021 at 8:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State game info

Location: Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, OK
Date: Saturday, November 27, 2021
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ABC

Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State betting preview

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.

Key injuries

Oklahoma: Mike Woods WR (Questionable) Theo Wease WR (Questionable), Jeremiah Criddell S (Questionable), Cody Jackson WR (Questionable), Kendall Dennis CB (Questionable), Nathan Rawlins-Kibonge DE (Questionable), Woodi Washington DB (Out).
Oklahoma State: Langston Anderson WR (Questionable), Braden Cassity DE (Questionable), LD Brown RB (Out), Braydon Johnson WR (Out), Tre Sterling S (Out) Trace Ford DE (Out).

Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Oklahoma is 12-3-1 against the spread in its last 16 games as a road underdog. Find more NCAA betting trends for Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State.

Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

The Sooners have been rather dominant in the Bedlam Series recently, as Oklahoma is 16-2 SU and 13-5 ATS in its last 18 meetings with Oklahoma State. That record includes marks of 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in games played at Boone Pickens Stadium. 

Not only does Oklahoma have the edge over Oklahoma State recently, but this year’s Sooners squad also happens to be more talented than the Pokes. Caleb Williams, who has had his ups and downs since taking over for preseason Heisman Trophy favorite, Spencer Rattler, is one of the most dangerous dual-threat quarterbacks in the nation. Oklahoma is 4-2 ATS since Williams took over under center, and the youngster should see some more open field in this game than he did against the Baylor Bears or Iowa State Cyclones. The Cowboys have been elite defensively this year, but they haven’t had a very difficult schedule. They also haven’t faced a player with Williams’ ability to make plays through the air and on the ground.

Another thing to keep an eye on in this game is that this is very much a matchup of strength versus strength. Oklahoma State has the nation’s fourth-best rushing defense, as the Pokes are giving up just 82.6 rushing yards per game. Oklahoma, however, is rushing for 175.2 yards per game this year, and both Kennedy Brooks and Eric Gray are capable of having big games here. Two years ago, Brooks rushed for 160 yards and a touchdown against this Cowboys defense, and the Sooners are going to feel good about their offensive line in a matchup with this defensive front. 

Defensively, Oklahoma has had its struggles throughout the year, but the Sooners are giving up just 23 points per game over the last four games. The Sooners have really turned it on as of late, but it was the offense that was the reason this team suffered its first defeat of the year a few weeks ago. This Oklahoma State offense also relies way too heavily on the run game, where any number of players can go for 100 yards on any given Saturday. However, expect defensive coordinator Alex Grinch to have his Sooners be aggressive in pursuing the ball in the backfield, as he should feel good about his corners in coverage against the arm of Cowboys quarterback Spencer Sanders. 

Despite what should be an electric home-field advantage for Oklahoma State, Oklahoma is the team that is more likely to cover. And the Sooners actually should end up winning this one outright. 

Prediction: Oklahoma +4.5 (-115)

Not only is the sharp money in this game on the Under, but there’s also a lot of factors that favor a lower-scoring game this weekend. One of the things that’s worth noting is that each of the last two meetings between these teams has gone Under the total. Last year, these two combined to score just 54 points in a game with a total of 60, and they scored only 50 points in a game with a total of 67.5 the year before. That’s a huge difference from the 95 these two scored in Bedlam back in 2018, and both of these teams have improved drastically on the defensive side of the ball since then. 

The Under is also surprisingly 14-4 when Oklahoma State has faced teams that complete 62 percent of their passes or better since the start of the 2019 season. That means that games haven’t exactly been high-scoring when high-powered passing offenses face this Cowboys defense. And considering both of these teams want to run the ball frequently in this game, it wouldn’t be surprising if that one holds up. 

Prediction: Under 51 (-110)

It’s surprising to see Oklahoma getting more than a field goal in a game that the Sooners should be able to win outright. Since the start of last season, Lincoln Riley’s team is 11-3 ATS when coming off back-to-back Big 12 games, and the Sooners won those games by an average margin of 18.7 points. Oklahoma has also played only two games as a road favorite since Riley became the team’s head coach, and the Sooners won both of those games outright. 

Overall, it’s not crazy to see why the public might be down on an Oklahoma team that blew its perfect season — and College Football Playoff hopes — in a loss to Baylor on November 13. However, Dave Aranda has that Bears team playing some great football this year, and it’s not as bad of a loss as it seems. The Sooners are still the team with the more explosive offense in this matchup with the Cowboys, and their defense is good enough to keep the Pokes’ passing game in check. I'm taking the points with the Sooners.

Pick: Oklahoma +4.5 (-115)

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