Year 2 of Oklahoma's foray into the SEC went far better than the first.
What will the Sooners do for an encore? Let's just say expectations from the betting world are muted.
Oklahoma's 10-win 2025 season caught most people by surprise, but the Sooners shouldn't expect to sneak up on anyone in 2026 as they look to return to the College Football Playoff for the second year in a row. Last year's surge put a six-win SEC debut firmly behind them, but they'll need plenty to go right to get to double-digit victories again in 2026.
Here's a look at the recent history of Oklahoma win totals, along with predictions on whether the Sooners will surpass or fall short of their 2026 number of 7.5:
Oklahoma 2026 win total predictions
(Confidence legend: 🟢 = high, 🟡 = medium, ⚪ = low)
| Name | Outlet | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Powers |  |
OVER 7.5 | 🟢 |
| Rob Paul | |
OVER 7.5 | 🟢 |
| Colby Marchio | |
OVER 7.5 | 🟢 |
Covers betting predictions
Brad Powers
I think this year’s Oklahoma team is better than last year’s team that made the playoffs. The problem is the Sooners play the 2nd toughest schedule in the country per my power ratings. I do project them to be favored in nine games (exceptions: at Michigan, at Georgia, vs Texas).
Rob Paul
The key to Brent Venables winning 8+ games for the third time in four years at Oklahoma will be the offense, because his elite defense shouldn’t drop off much from last year.
OU returns several key cogs from last season’s top five defense, including All-SEC candidates in David Stone, Kip Lewis, Courtland Guillory, and the Bowen brothers, Peyton and Eli. And while Stone has the talent to be the best defensive tackle in the country, it won’t matter if John Mateer isn’t healthy.
If Mateer is healthy and takes a leap as a passer, Ben Arbuckle’s offense should be much more potent this season, especially with the Sooners ranking third in returning offensive production (75%). It helps that last year’s best big-play receiver Isaiah Sategna III is back, and that Venables added several pass catchers in the portal, including Trell Harris (Virginia) and Parker Livingstone (Texas).
Colby Marchio
I do not know why, but this feels like the season where, if the Sooners do not make a real impact in the SEC and the College Football Playoff, Brent Venables' seat is going to start warming up. No, it will not be anywhere close to Brian Kelly last year, but I think they at least turn the burner on.
That said, this may be one of the best Oklahoma teams we've seen in a long time. If this defense Venables put together had played alongside Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, or Jalen Hurts, they would have won a national championship.
With everything we saw from John Mateer before his injury last season, the Sooners should be able to make some noise in the SEC. If they can steal one against Georgia or Texas, they should be in great shape. That is much easier said than done, though.
Oklahoma win totals, odds and results (2005-25)
(Oklahoma historical win totals courtesy Sports Odds History)
| Year | Win Total | Over | Under | Actual Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7.5 | +110 | -135 | 10 | Over |
| 2024 | 7.5 | -120 | +100 | 6 | Under |
| 2023 | 9.5 | -105 | -115 | 10 | Over |
| 2022 | 9 | -135 | +110 | 6 | Under |
| 2021 | 11 | -120 | +100 | 10 | Under |
| 2019 | 10 | -150 | +130 | 11 | Over |
| 2018 | 10 | -120 | +100 | 11 | Over |
| 2017 | 9.5 | -130 | +110 | 11 | Over |
| 2016 | 10 | +120 | -140 | 10 | Push |
| 2015 | 8.5 | -135 | +115 | 11 | Over |
| 2014 | 10.5 | -120 | +100 | 8 | Under |
| 2013 | 8.5 | -140 | +110 | 10 | Over |
| 2012 | 10 | -120 | -110 | 10 | Push |
| 2011 | 10 | -130 | +100 | 9 | Under |
| 2010 | 10.5 | +120 | -150 | 10 | Under |
| 2009 | 10 | +110 | -140 | 7 | Under |
| 2008 | 10 | NA | NA | 11 | Over |
| 2006 | 10.5 | +125 | -145 | 10 | Under |
| 2005 | 9.5 | +130 | -160 | 7 | Under |
🔑 Key takeaways
- Hit big, miss big: Being a Sooners fan has been quite a ride in recent years. Oklahoma has a whopping six double-digit win results over the past eight years (going 6-1-1 to the Over on its win total in those seasons), while earning just six wins in each of the other two campaigns (and falling well short of its win totals).
- Strong value here: Oklahoma has zigged when sports bettors and bookmakers zag, and it has resulted in some nice profits for those fading the favored play. The Sooners have cashed the longer odds on five consecutive win totals, including a nice +110 payday on the O7.5 market last season.
- Far from the glory days: 2026 marks the fifth straight time the Sooners will carry a Vegas win total below 10 into the season. Oklahoma had only seen that happen four total times before the streak started.
How Oklahoma win totals are priced
On the surface, this feels like a weird one.
Oklahoma's moves to stabilize its roster paid immediate dividends, resulting in a four-win improvement and an easy cash on the O7.5. So why is the team total sitting at 7.5 for the third season in a row (although the O7.5 is the favored play at -170 compared to the U7.5 at +142)?
It likely comes down to how challenging the Sooners' schedule will be in 2026. They'll finish their 2025-26 home-and-home with Michigan at the Big House in Week 2, and face Georgia two weeks later. Road dates with Florida and Missouri will also be daunting, and Oklahoma also gets a date with Texas.
The margin is thin for this team, and the sportsbooks are keenly aware.
The Sooners are 8-1 SU (5-4 ATS) in nine non-conference games since joining the SEC, but have just three in 2026 – including their showdown with the host Wolverines.
Oklahoma win total FAQs
Will Oklahoma make the CFP?
The Sooners should be in the CFP mix, and sportsbooks have them listed at +210 to return to the postseason.
What is Oklahoma's projected win total?
The Sooners carry a 2026 win total of 7.5, with the Over at -170 and the Under at +142.
Who is Oklahoma's starting QB?
John Mateer is expected to have the Sooners' QB1 role for a second straight season; he threw for 2,885 yards and 14 touchdowns last year.
What is the most notable Oklahoma win total trend?
The Sooners are 6-5 SU (6-4-1 ATS) against ranked opponents since moving to the SEC.
What’s the best bet for Oklahoma this season?
Based on our expert consensus, bettors should be all about the OVER on the Sooners' 2026 win number.
