New Mexico State Conference USA0-0

Florida State ACC0-0

7:00PM ET 7:00PM ET · Aug 29, 2026

New Mexico State vs Florida State Picks & Props

NMSU vs FSU Picks

NCAAF Picks

Game Prop

u11.5 Team Total (-139)

Best Odds

u42.5 -110

Pick made: yesterday

u42.5 -120

u42.5 -115

u42.5 -125

u42.5 -112

u11.5 -127

u42.5 -110

u42.5 -125

New Mexico State has played two P4 opponents during Tony Sanchez's tenure, in combined to score 12 points in those games. The Aggies have finished ranked outside the Top 100 in PPG in both of Sanchez's seasons. And Florida State has a projected Top 30 defense by SP+ and should apply plenty of pressure on Furman transfer QB Trey Hedden.

Rushing Yards

AD Ashton Daniels o38.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Best Odds

o39.5 -111

Pick made: yesterday

o39.5 -115

o39.5 -111

o40.5 -114

o39.5 -125

o39.5 -114

Daniels has gone Over this number in 10 of his last 12 starts. He averaged 81.7 rushing yards in his three starts for Auburn last year and this is a soft matchup, as NMSU ranked 96th in PFF's rush defense grade and 106th in front-seven havoc and now checks in at 117th in returning defensive production.

Score a Touchdown

SS Samuel Singleton Jr. Score a Touchdown (Yes: +145)

Best Odds

+125

Pick made: yesterday

+105

+125

+117

Samuel Singleton Jr. is the forgotten man in FSU's backfield despite being the best blocker and posting effective rush numbers (7.1 yards per carry, 3.8 yards after contact per attempt). The coaching staff has been talking him up all offseason, and he should capitalize on an advantageous matchup and see an uptick in usage with backfield mate Quintrevion Wisner banged up.

Total

u53.5 (-111)

Best Odds

u54.5 -110

Pick made: 2 days ago

u54.5 -112

u53.5 -116

u53.5 -108

u54.5 -115

u54.0 -110

u54.0 -114

u53.5 -106

u54.5 -110

u54.5 -125

New Mexico State's offenses have been among the worst in the country under head coach Tony Sanchez. Against a Florida State defense that's projected to be Top 30 by SP+, scoring even double digits will be tough. And Florida State's offense could be clunky to start, with so many transfers on the O-line.

Total

u53.5 (-121)

Best Odds

u54.5 -110

Pick made: 4 days ago

u54.5 -112

u53.5 -116

u53.5 -108

u54.5 -115

u54.0 -110

u54.0 -114

u53.5 -106

u54.5 -110

u54.5 -125

Will New Mexico State score at all? They averaged 2.6 yards per rush and won't find room on the ground against a solid FSU run defense. Transfer QB Trey Hedden has more career turnover-worthy passes than big-time throws. The Seminoles likely score plenty, but I'm not sure they reach 50+ against a solid NMSU defense (40th in EPA per play) that held a high-powered Tennessee offense 53.3 total yards below their season-long average

Spread

FSU -30.5 (-116)

Best Odds

-32.5 -105

Pick made: 4 days ago

-32.0 -108

-31.5 -122

-31.5 -112

-32.5 -105

-31.5 -110

-32.5 -108

-31.5 -115

-31.5 -120

-31.5 -105

If Mike Norvell ever needed to win by margin, it's now. He'll rack up margin in a favorable matchup, just as he's done in the past: East Texas A&M (77-3) and Kent State (66-10) a year ago; Southern Mississippi (66-13) and North Alabama (58-13) in 2023; and Duquesne in 2022. He's got an improved roster to work with, and while it might not show over the course of a challenging schedule, it will in Week 0 against New Mexico State, which had one of the worst offenses in the country a year ago.

Read Full Analysis

3 LEG PARLAY

FSU -31.5

Spread

FSU 1st Half -17.5

1st Half Spread

u53.5

Total

Bet now

+550

Pick made: yesterday

Ashton Daniels will hit the tantalizing receiver duo of Duce Robinson and Macahi Danzy early and often, leading to a large first-half lead. From there, the Seminoles' edge in the trenches should allow them to possess the ball for the majority of the contest.

Passing Yards

Ashton Daniels o224.5 Passing Yards (-140)

Projection 274.7118 (Over)

Best Odds

o224.5 -120

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o224.5 -120

o239.5 +104

o231.5 -114

o224.5 -140

o249.5 +112

o230.5 -114

Passing Yards

Trey Hedden o174.5 Passing Yards (+105)

Projection 195.7564 (Over)

Best Odds

o174.5 +105

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o174.5 +105

o179.5 +106

Rushing Yards

James Jones o29.5 Rushing Yards (-105)

Projection 35.933 (Over)

Best Odds

o29.5 -105

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o29.5 -105

Rushing Yards

Ousmane Kromah u77.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Projection 68.89 (Under)

Best Odds

u77.5 -114

Pick made: 2 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u77.5 -114

Rushing Yards

Ashton Daniels o40.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Projection 42.3032 (Over)

Best Odds

o39.5 -111

Pick made: 11 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o39.5 -115

o39.5 -111

o40.5 -114

o39.5 -125

o39.5 -114

Receiving Yards

Duce Robinson o79.5 Receiving Yards (+100)

Projection 95.9206 (Over)

Best Odds

o79.5 +100

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o79.5 +100

o80.5 -117

o79.5 -114

o79.5 -115

o79.5 -109

o89.5 +115

Receiving Yards

TK King o39.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

Projection 52.0722 (Over)

Best Odds

o39.5 -120

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o39.5 -120

Spread

65% picking Florida State

35% 35%

65% 65%

Total Picks NMSU 97, FSU 181

Spread

NMSU

FSU

Spread

+32.5 -115

-32.5 -105

Total

67% picking New Mexico State vs Florida State to go Over

67% 67%

33% 33%

Total PicksNMSU 110, FSU 55

Total

Over

Under

Total

53.5 -112

54.5 -110

NMSU vs FSU Props

GAME & PLAYER PROPS	PROJECTIONS				ANALYSIS	BEST ODDS
SPREAD NMSU +31.5 spread 31.00 PROJECTION -0.5 DIFFERENCE 1.71% EV Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5 Best odds FanDuel Best Odds +32.5 -115 +32.0 -110 +31.5 -110 +31.5 -108 +32.5 -115 +31.5 -110 +32.5 -115 +31.5 -105 +31.5 +100 +31.5 -115 NMSU +31.5 spread PROJECTION 31.00 PROJECTION -0.5 DIFFERENCE 1.71% EV ANALYSIS There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later. +32.5 -115
TOTAL Under 53.5 Total 52.98 UNDER PROJECTION -0.5 DIFFERENCE 2.33% EV Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5 Best odds theScore Bet Best Odds u54.5 -110 u54.5 -112 u53.5 -116 u53.5 -108 u54.5 -115 u54.0 -110 u54.0 -114 u53.5 -106 u54.5 -110 u54.5 -125 Under 53.5 Total PROJECTION 52.98 UNDER PROJECTION -0.5 DIFFERENCE 2.33% EV ANALYSIS There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later. u54.5 -110
MONEYLINE FSU -10000 moneyline FSU PROJECTION - DIFFERENCE 1.18% EV Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5 Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook Best Odds -9000 -12500 -10000 -10000 -20000 -9000 - - -50000 -10000 FSU -10000 moneyline PROJECTION FSU PROJECTION - DIFFERENCE 1.18% EV ANALYSIS There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later. -9000
PASSING YARDS AD A. Daniels (QB) o224.5 Passing Yards 274.71 OVER PROJECTION +50.2 DIFFERENCE 27.2% EV Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5 Best odds bet365 Best Odds o224.5 -120 - o224.5 -120 o239.5 +104 o231.5 -114 o224.5 -140 o249.5 +112 o230.5 -114 - - AD A. Daniels (QB) o224.5 Passing Yards PROJECTION 274.71 OVER PROJECTION +50.2 DIFFERENCE 27.2% EV ANALYSIS There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later. o224.5 -120
PASSING YARDS TH T. Hedden (QB) o174.5 Passing Yards 195.76 OVER PROJECTION +21.3 DIFFERENCE 25.95% EV Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5 Best odds bet365 Best Odds o174.5 +105 - o174.5 +105 o179.5 +106 - - - - - - TH T. Hedden (QB) o174.5 Passing Yards PROJECTION 195.76 OVER PROJECTION +21.3 DIFFERENCE 25.95% EV ANALYSIS There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later. o174.5 +105
RUSHING YARDS JJ J. Jones (RB) o29.5 Rushing Yards 35.93 OVER PROJECTION +6.4 DIFFERENCE 24.42% EV Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5 Best odds bet365 Best Odds o29.5 -105 - o29.5 -105 - - - - - - - JJ J. Jones (RB) o29.5 Rushing Yards PROJECTION 35.93 OVER PROJECTION +6.4 DIFFERENCE 24.42% EV ANALYSIS There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later. o29.5 -105
RUSHING YARDS OK O. Kromah (RB) u77.5 Rushing Yards 68.89 UNDER PROJECTION -8.6 DIFFERENCE 21.71% EV Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5 Best odds FanDuel Best Odds u77.5 -114 - - - u77.5 -114 - - - - - OK O. Kromah (RB) u77.5 Rushing Yards PROJECTION 68.89 UNDER PROJECTION -8.6 DIFFERENCE 21.71% EV ANALYSIS There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later. u77.5 -114
RUSHING YARDS AD A. Daniels (QB) o40.5 Rushing Yards 42.30 OVER PROJECTION +1.8 DIFFERENCE 20.92% EV Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5 Best odds DraftKings Best Odds o39.5 -111 - o39.5 -115 o39.5 -111 o40.5 -114 o39.5 -125 o39.5 -114 - - - AD A. Daniels (QB) o40.5 Rushing Yards PROJECTION 42.30 OVER PROJECTION +1.8 DIFFERENCE 20.92% EV ANALYSIS There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later. o39.5 -111
RECEIVING YARDS D. Robinson (WR) o79.5 Receiving Yards 95.92 OVER PROJECTION +16.4 DIFFERENCE 26.01% EV Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5 Best odds bet365 Best Odds o79.5 +100 - o79.5 +100 o80.5 -117 o79.5 -114 o79.5 -115 o79.5 -109 - o89.5 +115 - D. Robinson (WR) o79.5 Receiving Yards PROJECTION 95.92 OVER PROJECTION +16.4 DIFFERENCE 26.01% EV ANALYSIS There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later. o79.5 +100
RECEIVING YARDS TK T. King (WR) o39.5 Receiving Yards 52.07 OVER PROJECTION +12.6 DIFFERENCE 25.45% EV Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5 Best odds bet365 Best Odds o39.5 -120 - o39.5 -120 - - - - - - - TK T. King (WR) o39.5 Receiving Yards PROJECTION 52.07 OVER PROJECTION +12.6 DIFFERENCE 25.45% EV ANALYSIS There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later. o39.5 -120

SPREAD

NMSU +31.5 spread

31.00 PROJECTION

-0.5 DIFFERENCE

1.71% EV

Rating:

+32.5 -115

+32.0 -110

+31.5 -110

+31.5 -108

+32.5 -115

+31.5 -110

+32.5 -115

+31.5 -105

+31.5 +100

+31.5 -115

TOTAL

Under 53.5 Total

52.98 UNDER PROJECTION

-0.5 DIFFERENCE

2.33% EV

Rating:

u54.5 -110

u54.5 -112

u53.5 -116

u53.5 -108

u54.5 -115

u54.0 -110

u54.0 -114

u53.5 -106

u54.5 -110

u54.5 -125

MONEYLINE

FSU -10000 moneyline

FSU PROJECTION

- DIFFERENCE

1.18% EV

Rating:

-9000

-12500

-10000

-20000

-9000

-50000

-10000

PASSING YARDS

A. Daniels (QB) o224.5 Passing Yards

274.71 OVER PROJECTION

+50.2 DIFFERENCE

27.2% EV

Rating:

o224.5 -120

o239.5 +104

o231.5 -114

o224.5 -140

o249.5 +112

o230.5 -114

PASSING YARDS

T. Hedden (QB) o174.5 Passing Yards

195.76 OVER PROJECTION

+21.3 DIFFERENCE

25.95% EV

Rating:

o174.5 +105

o179.5 +106

RUSHING YARDS

J. Jones (RB) o29.5 Rushing Yards

35.93 OVER PROJECTION

+6.4 DIFFERENCE

24.42% EV

Rating:

o29.5 -105

RUSHING YARDS

O. Kromah (RB) u77.5 Rushing Yards

68.89 UNDER PROJECTION

-8.6 DIFFERENCE

21.71% EV

Rating:

u77.5 -114

RUSHING YARDS

A. Daniels (QB) o40.5 Rushing Yards

42.30 OVER PROJECTION

+1.8 DIFFERENCE

20.92% EV

Rating:

o39.5 -111

o39.5 -115

o39.5 -111

o40.5 -114

o39.5 -125

o39.5 -114

RECEIVING YARDS

D. Robinson (WR) o79.5 Receiving Yards

95.92 OVER PROJECTION

+16.4 DIFFERENCE

26.01% EV

Rating:

o79.5 +100

o80.5 -117

o79.5 -114

o79.5 -115

o79.5 -109

o89.5 +115

RECEIVING YARDS

T. King (WR) o39.5 Receiving Yards

52.07 OVER PROJECTION

+12.6 DIFFERENCE

25.45% EV

Rating:

o39.5 -120

Recent Form Trends

Under is 4-0 in Seminoles last 4 games as a favorite.
Under is 4-0 in Aggies last 4 games as a road favorite.
Under is 5-1 in Seminoles last 6 games overall.
Seminoles are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.
Under is 5-1 in Seminoles last 6 games on grass.
Under is 5-1 in Aggies last 6 games on grass.
Under is 4-1 in Seminoles last 5 games as a home underdog.
Under is 4-1 in Aggies last 5 games as an underdog.

ROI Trends

New Mexico State Trends

New Mexico State has hit the Team Total Over in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.80 Units / 32% ROI)

New Mexico State has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)

Over

Under

Game Line - Total - FT

Compare odds

New Mexico State have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.70 Units / 19% ROI)

NMSU

FSU

Game Line - Spread - FT

Compare odds

New Mexico State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.65 Units / 24% ROI)

Over

Under

Game Line - Total - 1H

Compare odds

New Mexico State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.55 Units / 16% ROI)

Over

Under

Game Line - Total - 1Q

Compare odds

New Mexico State have only covered the 1Q Spread in 3 of their last 12 games (-7.04 Units / -52% ROI)

NMSU

FSU

Game Line - Spread - 1Q

Compare odds

New Mexico State has only hit the Moneyline in 2 of their last 9 games (-5.00 Units / -52% ROI)

NMSU

FSU

Game Line - Moneyline - FT

Compare odds

New Mexico State has only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 1 of their last 10 games (-4.30 Units / -40% ROI)

NMSU

FSU

Game Line - Moneyline - 1Q

Compare odds

New Mexico State has only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 12 games (-3.05 Units / -22% ROI)

Over

Under

Game Line - Total - 1H

Compare odds

New Mexico State has only hit the Team Total Under in 3 of their last 9 games (-3.00 Units / -29% ROI)

Florida State Trends

Florida State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.85 Units / 66% ROI)

Over

Under

Game Line - Total - 1Q

Compare odds

Florida State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+5.90 Units / 1% ROI)

NMSU

FSU

Game Line - Moneyline - 1H

Compare odds

Florida State has hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 63% ROI)

Florida State has hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)

Over

Under

Game Line - Total - FT

Compare odds

Florida State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.90 Units / 58% ROI)

Over

Under

Game Line - Total - 1H

Compare odds

Florida State have not covered the 1Q Spread in any of their last 9 games (-11.20 Units / -100% ROI)

NMSU

FSU

Game Line - Spread - 1Q

Compare odds

Florida State has only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 1 of their last 9 games (-8.30 Units / -79% ROI)

Over

Under

Game Line - Total - 1Q

Compare odds

Florida State has only hit the Team Total Over in 1 of their last 8 games (-7.10 Units / -77% ROI)

Florida State has only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 2 of their last 8 games (-5.00 Units / -53% ROI)

Over

Under

Game Line - Total - 1H

Compare odds

Florida State has only hit the Game Total Over in 2 of their last 8 games (-4.60 Units / -52% ROI)

Over

Under

Game Line - Total - FT

Compare odds

There are no User Picks for this match up at the moment. Visit our Team Leaders to see all User picks.

New Mexico State Team Leaders

Rank	Leader	L10	Units
1	Hoosier	5-5-0	+5700
2	Jets73	6-4-0	+4800
3	Alexandr1966	7-3-0	+4750
4	pittsburghphil	6-4-0	+4700
5	ledbone	9-0-0	+4500
6	aront1	8-0-0	+4000
7	dwynf	8-2-0	+3850
8	Ollywood	6-4-0	+3700
9	JFT1010	6-4-0	+3700
10	Alfiekutya	6-4-0	+3650
All Aggies Money Leaders

Florida State Team Leaders

Rank	Leader	L10	Units
1	picus57	10-0-0	+6300
2	Batch9	7-3-0	+5250
3	burley	7-3-0	+5250
4	Jets73	8-2-0	+4800
5	sportsking157	6-4-0	+4700
6	any007	9-1-0	+4700
7	CCKILLA	7-3-0	+4700
8	tadlodz	9-1-0	+4450
9	sherriffics	7-3-0	+4350
10	goobero	8-2-0	+4300
All Seminoles Money Leaders

Top User Picks

New Mexico State vs Florida State Picks & Props

NMSU vs FSU Picks

NMSU vs FSU Consensus Picks

Consensus Picks

65% picking Florida State

67% picking New Mexico State vs Florida State to go Over

NMSU vs FSU Props

How is Value calculated?

Recent Form Trends

ROI Trends

New Mexico State Trends

New Mexico State has hit the Team Total Over in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.80 Units / 32% ROI)

New Mexico State has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)

New Mexico State have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.70 Units / 19% ROI)

New Mexico State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.65 Units / 24% ROI)

New Mexico State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.55 Units / 16% ROI)

New Mexico State have only covered the 1Q Spread in 3 of their last 12 games (-7.04 Units / -52% ROI)

New Mexico State has only hit the Moneyline in 2 of their last 9 games (-5.00 Units / -52% ROI)

New Mexico State has only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 1 of their last 10 games (-4.30 Units / -40% ROI)

New Mexico State has only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 12 games (-3.05 Units / -22% ROI)

New Mexico State has only hit the Team Total Under in 3 of their last 9 games (-3.00 Units / -29% ROI)

Florida State Trends

Florida State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.85 Units / 66% ROI)

Florida State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+5.90 Units / 1% ROI)

Florida State has hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 63% ROI)

Florida State has hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)

Florida State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.90 Units / 58% ROI)

Florida State have not covered the 1Q Spread in any of their last 9 games (-11.20 Units / -100% ROI)

Florida State has only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 1 of their last 9 games (-8.30 Units / -79% ROI)

Florida State has only hit the Team Total Over in 1 of their last 8 games (-7.10 Units / -77% ROI)

Florida State has only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 2 of their last 8 games (-5.00 Units / -53% ROI)

Florida State has only hit the Game Total Over in 2 of their last 8 games (-4.60 Units / -52% ROI)

NMSU vs FSU Top User Picks

User Picks

New Mexico State Team Leaders

Florida State Team Leaders

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