Nevada vs Hawaii Odds, Picks and Predictions: Wolf Pack Have Edge in Ugly Mountain West Matchup

Two of the Mountain West's worst squads — Nevada and Hawaii — go to-toe-to in a late-night matchup to close out Week 7 of college football action. Which bottom-feeding side has the ATS edge? Read our college football betting picks below to find out.

JD Yonke - Contributor at
JD Yonke • Contributor
Oct 15, 2022 • 07:48 ET • 4 min read
Toa Taua Nevada Wolf Pack
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Week 7 looks to be one of the best weekends of the year, featuring two separate matchups between Top-10 teams and six matchups overall between ranked teams.

If you’re looking to extend what forecasts to be a thrilling day of football, consider staying up late for the nightcap on the island of Hawaii, where Nevada and Hawaii kick off just before midnight eastern time. 

What’s the best bet for the last game of the weekend? Read our college football picks and predictions for Nevada vs. Hawaii below to find out.

Nevada vs Hawaii best odds

Nevada vs Hawaii picks and predictions

Let’s be clear: this is a matchup between two of the worst teams in college football.

Nevada saw nearly its entire coaching staff leave for Colorado State in the offseason and has lost four straight games, most recently falling 17-14 to that CSU squad in a game in which the Rams failed to score an offensive touchdown. Hawaii, meanwhile, also saw a coaching change in the offseason and is now 1-5 while failing to notch a single win over an FBS team.

Neither team is in a good spot right now, but Hawaii in particular is in for a long rebuild. Todd Graham was let go in the offseason in a tumultuous time for the program that saw many of its star players — and most of its roster in general — leave via the transfer portal.

Most notably, it must sting for Hawaii fans to see former quarterback Chevan Cordeiro excel for the new Mountain West conference favorite San Jose State Spartans, while Hawaii still searches for any positive signs on the field. 

These teams have one common opponent in New Mexico State. Hawaii was blown out 45-26 by a bad Aggies team, while Nevada notched a 23-12 victory buoyed by five turnovers. Nevada may be bad, but Hawaii has been much worse.

The Rainbow Warriors have one of the worst defenses in college football, surrendering 40.5 points per game to rank 126th in the nation. They rank 126th in success rate while failing to stop the run (128th in rushing success rate) or the pass (114th in passing success rate). 

It’s not like they’ve been much better on the other side of the ball, ranking 127th in predicted points added (PPA) offensively. In other words, they’re one of the worst teams in the nation on both sides of the ball.

Nevada’s defense will be the best unit on the field — which isn’t saying much, but they rank 91st in success rate defensively. The secondary ranks 30th in passing success rate allowed, which gives them an advantage in this matchup. Plug your nose and play the Wolf Pack.

My best bet: Nevada -6.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

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Nevada vs Hawaii spread analysis

The spread in this contest is set at -6 in favor of Nevada. It will be the third time this year that the Wolf Pack have been favored, and they’ll look to reverse the trend started by the first two occurrences. First, they lost outright to Incarnate Word 55-41 as 4-point favorites and a week ago, fell 17-14 as 3.5-point faves to a previously winless Colorado State team.

Still, that doesn’t automatically make Hawaii the side. Both of those teams are likely better than Hawaii is, with Incarnate Word certainly offering more firepower offensively. They also outgained the Rams by 103 total yards but fell victim to two defensive touchdowns after a few unwise and untimely turnovers. 

Hawaii's lone win this season came against a 1-5 FCS school, the Duquesne Dukes. To make matters even worse, Hawaii was outgained by a whopping 178 total yards in that matchup. The Dukes notched 24 first downs compared to Hawaii’s 13 and dominated the time of possession 37:02 to 22:52 but tossed await three turnovers.

Timmy Chang has a very long rebuild on his hands. Hawaii is 16-33-2 ATS in its last 51 home games and 19-40 ATS against a team with a losing record.

Nevada vs Hawaii Over/Under analysis

The Over/Under has been set at 49.5 in this Mountain West clash. If Hawaii’s defense continues its moribund play, a look at Nevada’s team total might be worth your time.

It’s difficult to trust the Wolf Pack’s offense, but Hawaii's defense has allowed over 410 total yards to every FBS team it has played. Nevada’s team total is set at 27.5 at -102 to the Over at FanDuel.

The Wolf Pack have played to the Over in this spot, going 7-2 in their last nine games following a straight-up loss and 4-1 in their last five against a team with a losing record. 

The weather will be something to monitor here, as current forecasts call for winds of up to 17.9 miles per hour at kickoff. That could potentially impact the two passing attacks in this game — neither of which are anything to speak of in the first place. 

Hawaii is 4-1 to the Under in its last five games and 15-5 to the Under in its last 20 conference games. The offense ranks 112th in rushing PPA and 127th in passing PPA, so they’ve struggled mightily on that side of the ball.

Nevada vs Hawaii betting trend to know

Hawaii is 16-33-2 ATS in its last 51 home games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Nevada vs. Hawaii.

Nevada vs Hawaii game info

Location: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, Honolulu, HI
Date: Saturday, October 15, 2022
Kickoff: 12:00 a.m. ET
TV: Spectrum Sports

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Nevada vs Hawaii weather

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