Missouri vs Ohio State Prediction: Cotton Bowl Odds and Picks

It’s becoming increasingly difficult to figure out who’s in or out of each bowl game during the age of the Transfer Portal and opt-outs. But unlike many of the other New Year’s Six bowl games, tonight's Cotton Bowl is in good shape to have many of the best players taking the field.

That sets up well for this Top-10 duel between Missouri and Ohio State to be one of the better games of bowl season, and the college football odds agree with the Buckeyes as just 3-point favorites against this 10-win Tigers team.

Find out where my best bets lie in my free college football picks for the Cotton Bowl between Missouri and Ohio State tonight.

For more Cotton Bowl bets, check out our best Missouri vs. Ohio State player props, and be sure to check out our bowl game odds page to keep up to date with every other matchup!

Missouri vs Ohio State best odds

Missouri vs Ohio State picks and predictions

On paper, Missouri is missing very little in this game and theoretically playing for more than Ohio State. A win would give the Tigers just their fourth 11-win season since 1901, and clearly, head coach Eli Drinkwitz’s team understands the stakes.

Almost all the Tigers starters are expected to suit up with just two — Ty’Ron Hopper and Ennis Rakestraw — set to miss the game due to injury. However, those are two key pieces to a Missouri defense that showed some leaks throughout the season and has a tough task against the Buckeyes' explosive offense.

Taking the Buckeyes to cover the spread is risky business given their roster attrition. Ryan Day’s program lost two starters on offense to the portal — quarterback Kyle McCord, who landed at Syracuse, and receiver Julian Fleming, who’s expected to end up at Penn State.

But there’s been a collective shrug in Columbus about the loss of McCord, who never quite looked like the guy under center, and the way Brian Hartline’s recruited receivers to the scarlet and grey, there’s plenty of five-star recruits waiting in the wings to replace Fleming.

The more immediate concern is how much NFL Draft talent the Buckeyes possess, but surprisingly the program has only seen one player confirm he won’t be taking the field, RB Miyan Williams, who had little impact this season. However, potential top-three pick Marvin Harrison Jr. hasn’t been practicing at the Cotton Bowl and isn’t expected to play.

So while not having Harrison Jr. out there hurts, if the rest of the Buckeyes take the field then Day’s squad still has the advantage because of their depth. It’s already been confirmed Emeka Egbuka, TreVeyon Henderson, Denzel Burke, Cade Stover, Donovan Jackson, Jack Sawyer, Tyleik Williams, and Jordan Hancock — all likely NFL Draft picks if they declare — will be playing.

The real question is how competent will Devin Brown be stepping in for McCord. Since Day became co-offensive coordinator for the Buckeyes in 2017, he’s gotten the most out of whoever is starting at QB.

McCord had the team scoring just 32.8 per game — 32nd in the country — and the Buckeyes still managed to rank 16th in EPA per play and eighth in EPA per pass. So while Brown, a former Top 50 recruit, is inexperienced, Day has been impressed with him in bowl practices and the infrastructure around him should allow him to get after this Missouri defense.

“The first thing you notice is his command of the huddle, his command of the offense,” Day said. “He's done a nice job of that. He has a charisma about him that I think the guys appreciate.”

The Tigers rank just 66th in EPA per play on defense and 94th in EPA per pass, and defensive coordinator Blake Baker will be without his tone-setting linebacker, Hopper, and second-best cornerback, Rakestraw. That sets Brown up nicely to utilize Egbuka, Henderson, and Stover, each a potential top prospect at their position in the NFL Draft, to take advantage of Missouri in the passing game.

With the Buckeyes expected to have most of their defensive starters too, they should be able to slow this explosive Missouri offense enough to cover. While the Tigers are 10th in EPA per play, 10th in EPA per pass, and 45th in EPA per rush, Jim Knowles' defense has been shutting teams down this season.

Ohio State has held teams to just 11 points per game and 259.9 total ypg. Knowles’ unit is also seventh in EPA per play, sixth in EPA per pass, and 16th in EPA per rush. The defenses are what will make the difference.

My best bet: Ohio State -3 (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Missouri vs Ohio State same-game parlay

Ohio State -3.5

Over 49.5

+275 at bet365

These are two of the best offenses in college football and even without McCord and Harrison Jr., Day’s Buckeyes should be able to hang points. Not only do they have Henderson, Egbuka, and Stover playing, but underclassmen Carnell Tate and Dallan Hayden have proven to be talented in limited action.

For the Over to hit though, Missouri’s going to have to score on this dominant Ohio State defense. Luckily for Drinkwitz, he has a future first-round receiver of his own in Luther Burden and an All-SEC running back in Cody Schrader.

Burden has 1,197 receiving yards this season and has drawn comparisons to Deebo Samuel while Schrader, a former walk-on, turned himself into an NFL Draft prospect after rushing for 1,499 yards.

The Tigers averaged 34.1 points per game this season, 25th in the country, and scored at least 21 points in every game.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Missouri vs Ohio State spread and Over/Under analysis

It’s been a wild ride tracking the line movement for the Cotton Bowl. Books that had a line early opened with the Buckeyes anywhere from two to 6.5-point favorites. The line then slowly swung and books that opened about a week later had Missouri as two to 2.5-point favorites.

At one point, a few books had it as a pick’em, but now most have Ohio State favored by between two and three points. That’s the fun of bowl betting in the portal and opt-out era, you never know what you’re going to get.

This season, the Buckeyes are 7-4-1 ATS and 1-2 ATS out of conference. The Tigers are 8-4 ATS and 2-2 ATS out of conference.

The total was a lot more tame with most books opening between 48.5 and 51.5 and most settling in between 48.5 and 49.5. The Buckeyes are just 3-9 betting the Over this season, thanks to its defense, while the Tigers are 8-4 betting the Over.

Missouri vs Ohio State betting trend to know

Missouri has only hit the game total Under in four of their last 12 games (-4.80 Units / -36% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Missouri vs Ohio State.

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