One of the best bowl matchups, outside of the College Football Playoff, will take place tonight as the Missouri Tigers take on the Ohio State Buckeyes in the Cotton Bowl at AT&T Stadium, in Dallas.
Ohio State nearly made the CFP itself before a loss to Michigan doomed its chances. Missouri may not have been in the playoff picture but went an impressive 6-2 in SEC play to put together a 10-win season.
I’ve taken a look at the bowl game odds and found my top three college football picks and props for the Tigers vs. the Buckeyes on Friday, December 29.
If you want to dig deeper into the Cotton Bowl, be sure to read our Missouri vs. Ohio State predictions for a complete analysis of this matchup.
Missouri vs Ohio State props for Cotton Bowl
- Cody Schrader anytime touchdown (-120 at DraftKings)
- TreVeyon Henderson Under 113.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
- Brady Cook Under 1.5 passing TDs (-165 at bet365)
Picks made on December 28 at 9:53 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Missouri vs Ohio State player props
Prop bet #1: Carry on Cody
There’s nothing in college football quite like having a dependable running back. The Missouri Tigers know this as well as anyone, as they’ve been able to consistently lean on senior back Cody Schrader to deliver big plays — and big scores — when they’ve needed him the most.
Schrader has scored 13 touchdowns this year and found the endzone in each of his last nine games. He’s also rushed for over 110 yards in each of his last five outings, showing that this production is more than the result of opportune goal-line carries or luck on a few touches.
What impresses me most is that these streaks have largely come against SEC competition, meaning Schrader has performed against some of the best teams in the country; he has touchdowns on the road against Georgia and Kentucky, as well as at home against Tennessee.
None of those teams has a defense quite like that of the Ohio State Buckeyes, which has held opponents to just 11 points per game this season, but the Buckeyes can at least be hurt on the ground, where opponents were able to get 112.5 yards per game on 3.4 yards per carry.
Those are hardly impressive numbers, but they at least represent production, and Schrader is much better than the average back Ohio State faced this season.
This will be a tough, defensive-minded game, and Missouri will need to utilize all its weapons to stay in touch with the Buckeyes. Schrader will be a key part of that gameplan, and I expect him to find the endzone at some point in this contest.
Cody Schrader prop: Anytime touchdown (-120 at DraftKings) 25% live boost available
Prop bet #2: Henderson’s high expectations
It looks like TreVeyon Henderson will suit up for the Buckeyes in the Cotton Bowl. That’s good news for Ohio State fans, who will be happy to see at least one star on the field.
With quarterback Kyle McCord out via the transfer portal and Marvin Harrison Jr. unlikely to play, Henderson is the best player remaining on the Buckeyes offense — and he'll make an impact on this game as he is a more-than-capable runner.
He has averaged 6.2 yards per carry and scored 11 times this year, despite playing in just nine games. However, I think we have to be realistic about what his production will look like tonight.
Currently, it appears as if Henderson will play, but we don’t know if HC Ryan Day might limit him to protect him from injury as he prepares to jump to the NFL draft. Even if he does get a full workload, college football odds have Henderson's rushing total at 113.5 yards — and he's only hit the 110-yard mark three times this year.
The Missouri defense isn’t the brick wall that the Buckeyes are, but it has more than held its own against the run this year: The Tigers are allowing just 3.8 yards per rush and 124.2 yards per game on the ground, both of which are favorable numbers when you consider the strength of their schedule.
Missouri won’t stop Henderson completely, but it will know that he’s the key man to stop in the Ohio State attack. Based on that, and how we’ve seen Henderson play all year long, his rushing yardage prop is simply too high. I’m taking the Under.
TreVeyon Henderson prop: Under 113.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Prop bet #3: Cooking on low
Junior quarterback Brady Cook put together a fine season for the Tigers, throwing for 3,189 yards and 20 touchdowns against just six interceptions. However, his production slowed down a bit once Missouri got into the meat of its SEC schedule.
Over his last six games, Cook has thrown for just seven touchdowns and two interceptions. He has only thrown for two or more touchdowns once in that stretch, coming in a blowout win over Arkansas in the regular-season finale.
Cook is solid and dependable, and also contributes with his legs, but he’s not going to strike fear into the heart of an elite defense... which is exactly what he’ll be facing off against in the Cotton Bowl.
The Buckeyes have shut down opposing quarterbacks all year long, holding them to a national-best 4.9 yards per attempt and a 97.2 quarterback rating, which is third in the nation. Ohio State allows just 147.5 yards per game through the air, despite teams often having to throw the ball against the Buckeyes when they fall behind.
Cook may be able to play it safe and avoid mistakes against Ohio State, and that’s likely what he’ll be coached to do, but that’s not an approach that’s likely to lead to him finding the endzone multiple times tonight.
Even if the offense does open up, the Buckeyes will be ready, and Cook hasn’t shown an ability to put up huge numbers, even against lesser defenses.
Brady Cook prop: Under 1.5 passing TDs (-165 at bet365)
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