The Battle Line Rivalry continues on Black Friday as the 9-2 Missouri Tigers look to avoid an upset to end their stellar season against the 4-7 Arkansas Razorbacks. This will be the 15th meeting of the history of this rivalry with the Tigers holding a 10-4 series lead.
The Tigers won another game thanks to a late kick by Harrison Mevis — the thicker kicker — as they took down Florida at home last week. The Razorbacks won at home last week against FIU and have now won two of their last three games.
Will the Tigers complete their first 10-win season since 2014 and cover in the college football odds this week?
Here are our free college football picks for Missouri vs. Arkansas in Fayetteville, Arkansas on Friday, November 24.
Missouri vs Arkansas best odds
Missouri vs Arkansas picks and predictions
Last season, the Missouri Tigers held on late to upset the Arkansas Razorbacks at home. However, this Arkansas team is not as good as that 20th-ranked version. Not only are the Tigers just 4-7, but they only have one conference win, which was a 39-36 win at Florida three weeks ago.
A big reason for the Tigers' success this season has been the vast improvement of the passing game. Brady Cook is averaging 279.7 passing yards per game with 18 touchdowns to only six interceptions. He's found two favorite targets in Luther Burden and Theo Wease, who have combined for 121 catches for 1766 yards and 14 touchdowns.
The Razorbacks defense has been solid against the pass, but also extremely inconsistent. It allows only 211.0 passing yards per game (ranked 42nd nationally) and has forced 12 interceptions — four of which have been returned for touchdowns. However, top passing offenses in the SEC have been able to exploit this defense.
Jayden Daniels from LSU threw for 320 yards and four touchdowns, Jalen Milroe from Alabama threw for 238 yards and two touchdowns, and Graham Mertz from Florida threw for 282 yards and three touchdowns. The Razorbacks rank 101st in pass efficiency defense despite their solid counting stats.
Another area in which the Razorbacks defense struggles is in the redzone. The Razorbacks have allowed 22 touchdowns and 13 field goals in 40 red zone attempts for opponents. That ranks 102nd in the nation in scoring percentage. It's a big reason why they've allowed 34+ points to four SEC opponents this season.
Only top-ranked Georgia was able to hold these Tigers to under 33 points in the SEC this season, yet we're getting it at 31.5 here. That's just too low for this offense with its ability to find the endzone.
My best bet: Missouri team total Over 31.5 (-113 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Missouri vs Arkansas same-game parlay
Missouri team total Over 30.5
Brady Cook Over 1.5 passing TDs
Luther Burden III Over 89.5 receiving yards
Theo Wease Over 47.5 receiving yards
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Liking the team total Over for Missouri will also give us some great opportunities to build a nice same-game parlay for Missouri's offense.
Starting with the team total, we're looking at least 3-4 touchdowns for the Tigers. It's extremely likely that at least two of those will come through the air from Cook. The Razorbacks have allowed only 10 rushing touchdowns, but 24 passing touchdowns.
Finally, we will add the receiving yardage Overs for both Burden and Wease. Burden is a target hog and will likely see plenty of opportunities to get his 90+ receiving yards. Wease doesn't see as many targets but is the No. 1 deep threat. He had one catch for 77 yards last week against Florida and only needs 48 yards to hit this mark.
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Missouri vs Arkansas spread and Over/Under analysis
The Razorbacks will be without both of their top rushers in Raheim Sanders and Rashad Dubinion. That puts a lot of pressure on quarterback K.J. Jefferson, who's already under immense pressure from opposing defenses. The Razorbacks have allowed 42 sacks this season and 7.3 tackles for loss per game (115th).
The Tigers will look to have linebacker Ty’Ron Hopper back from injury after missing the Florida game — where he was dearly missed. If he's back, I like the Missouri defense to be able to make enough plays to keep the Razorbacks at bay, leading the Tigers to cover this 7.5-point spread.
The 54.5-point total is dependent on Arkansas keeping the game close. While I like the Tigers to score into the 30s, the Razorbacks still need to get into the 20s for the total to go Over. Since, I think we'll see Hopper return, I would shy away from taking this total and have a slight lean toward the Under.
Missouri vs Arkansas betting trend to know
Missouri has gone Over its team total in two of its last three games. Find more college football betting trends for Missouri vs Arkansas.
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Missouri vs Arkansas game info
|Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, AR
|Friday, November 24, 2023
|4:00 p.m. ET
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