Mississippi vs Penn State Prediction: Today's Peach Bowl Odds and Picks

A compelling matchup between two contrasting styles awaits us when the No. 11-ranked Mississippi Rebels and No. 10-ranked Penn State Nittany Lions meet in today's Peach Bowl.

Penn State's season ended as a disappointment — at least for now. The Nittany Lions had aspirations of a Big Ten title and, by and large, beat the teams it should have but lost to the teams it should.

Mississippi had a similar season, although the Rebels did at least get one notable win against LSU late in the season. Both teams will be looking for a win in the bowl game odds to validate seasons that have left each empty. That means we should be in store for a highly competitive matchup.  

What's the best bet? Find out when we look at the college football odds and give it in our college football picks for Saturday, December 30. Be sure to also check out our Peach Bowl player prop picks.

Mississippi vs Penn State best odds

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Mississippi vs Penn State picks and predictions

The central story of this game is the new approach to the Penn State Nittany Lions offense. It changes everything about how you view this matchup and how you handicap it. 

The Nittany Lions are now over a month removed from old offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich, who — rightly or wrongly — received a bulk of the criticism for Penn State's offensive woes.

Since then, it's played just one game. That game came against Michigan State, where the offense was refreshing. It moved up the field with pace and did it often, racking up over 500 yards along with 42 points.

How much do you weigh this here? Sparty was awful this season, but Penn State's offense showed something we hadn't seen in nearly two years. Can it be replicated? I'm thinking enough for our best bet and grabbing the Over of 48.5 at FanDuel.

Let's start with the Mississippi side of things. This offense has been prolific against average to good defenses but struggled against the physical, great defenses.

You would have thought Penn State would fit the latter, and for the most part, it does. However, there's something that's being discounted. That's the absence of potential NFL first-round pick and cornerback Kalen King. This is an excellent defense with excellent numbers, but how much he means to the passing defense must be considered. 

King played in every game this season and posted modest stats because the ball was rarely thrown in his direction. However, he did see a course of games where he was limited: Indiana was one.

Fittingly, Penn State gave up its most points of the season. It's a one-game sample, but it adds credence to what my eyes have told me: King covers some issues for Penn State. This is still an elite unit, but without him, the Rebels (and its elite offense ranked Top 25 in EPA per play) can exploit it enough to do their part on the Over.

On the other side of the ball, I already hinted at the improvements of Penn State's offense simply because of a coaching change and a tempo increase, but this is really about how bad the Rebels defense is. Though it's an improved unit, it still has issues similar to those of Lane Kiffin's teams in the past. 

It'll also be without leading pass rusher Cedric Johnson for this matchup. The Rebels come into this game ranking average in defensive EPA per game. Though it's been solid against the pass and struggled against the run, it's had issues against both when facing the better teams on its schedule. Ask Penn State quarterback Drew Allar, and he's finally playing confidently under the new offensive leadership.

"Coach Seider and Coach Howle have done a great job of giving us simple rules to follow, not giving us too many looks or too many rules," Allar said. "That makes my job a lot easier because the timing and communication got on a different level because I was able to anticipate more of what everybody was doing out on the perimeter."

That's highly significant here. The eye test all year said Allar could be better and that his confidence was an issue. This quarterback has all of the prerequisites and is undoubtedly capable of punishing a defense that's never been good all season. 

This won't be a breeze, but this number is too short, especially with a Penn State offense playing faster than ever, which will match closely to the speed of its counterpart.

My best bet: Over 48.5 (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Mississippi vs Penn State same-game parlay

Over 48.5

Jaxson Dart Over 200.5 passing yards

Kaytron Allen anytime TD

+320 at bet365

The first addition to the SGP is Jaxson Dart Over 200.5 passing yards. I expect Penn State to grab an early lead, forcing Mississippi to put the ball in the air.

We've mentioned some of the openings in the secondary for Penn State without its star corner. Dart is more than capable of surpassing this number, just like he did against an elite defense such as Alabama.

The last leg is Penn State's Kaytron Allen to cash in for six. Mississippi's defensive issues have come defending the run, where they're one of the worst in success rate and EPA per play. I expect Allen to have a high volume of touches around the goalline to get this one cashed.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Mississippi vs Penn State spread and Over/Under analysis

I lean towards Penn State to get the job done, but there will likely be better opportunities in the game to cash on the Nittany Lions. 

Penn State has struggled against the physical type modes that closely resemble Penn State. Though they don't have some of the skill sets and talents that Alabama and Georgia had, they're similar to those teams in the trenches, and Mississippi lost those battles this season.

With a month of planning, I expect Kiffin to have schemed up an offense that can hurt Penn State's defense — especially early. However, I'd eventually expect Penn State's superiority in the trenches to win out.

If Ole Miss can grab an early lead, I'll look to hold the Nittany Lions at plus money live. If not, I'll pass on a position. 

We're on the Over; it's our best bet. These two teams have never played each other and are on a streak of combined Unders. However, there's a lot of change for both programs and bowl season. With a bowl game this late, it's almost like a new season altogether.

I expect both offenses to find enough points to push this one Over on Saturday afternoon. 

Mississippi vs Penn State betting trend to know

Penn State has won nine of its last 11 games (+7.00 units / 4% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Mississippi vs Penn State.

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