The Mississippi Rebels look to get revenge for a home upset loss last season when they visit the Kentucky Wildcats on Saturday afternoon.
I explain why fading both starting quarterbacks is likely to be profitable in my Mississippi vs. Kentucky props and college football picks for September 6.
Mississippi vs Kentucky props for Week 2
Calzada u157.5 pass yds (-114)- Dowdell o45.5 rush yds (-114)
Simmons u275.5 pass yds (-114)
Prop bet #1: Zach Calzada Under 157.5 passing yards
Zach Calzada threw his first passes at the FBS level in three years last weekend against Toledo. He completed just 10 of his 23 attempts for only 85 yards, with no touchdowns and an interception.
All eight of his throws that went 20+ yards in the air all fell incomplete — albeit two were waved off for pass interference penalties.
He overthrew his targets repeatedly, and completed only four passes to wide receivers for a total of 12 yards. While head coach Mark Stoops chalked it up to “nerves,” I’m not sure those nerves will be any calmer against the Mississippi Rebels.
The Kentucky Wildcats offensive line held up well against Toledo, but Zxavian Harris will be a much bigger challenge. The 6-foot-8 defensive tackle weighs 330 pounds, and is coming off an SEC Defensive POTW performance that included two hurries, 1.5 tackles for loss, an interception, and a blocked field goal attempt.
Georgia State was able to find success with the ground game, and Kentucky will look to do the same. Stoops’ best seasons have come when the Wildcats simply pounded the rock and shortened games. That recipe helped the Wildcats pull off the upset last year in Oxford.
Calzada will likely be asked to manage the game, and there’s the possibility he’s benched for backup Cutter Boley should he struggle again. Either way, the odds of him even reaching 150 passing yards are low.
Prop bet #2: Dante Dowdell Over 45.5 rushing yards
Stoops is thrilled to have not one, but two running backs he can rely on this season. It’s a luxury that he’s ridden to success in seasons past, being able to rotate and split carries while wearing down defenses and putting together clock-sapping drives in the second half.
Last week saw both Dante Dowdell and Seth McGowan carry the ball 14+ times. While McGowan struggled to get going, with a long run of just seven yards, Dowdell hit a 79-yard touchdown in the second half to break the game open.
McGowan is expected to start, but the carry split between the two wasn’t far apart. And with Dowdell’s rushing target in this game sitting 15 yards less than McGowan's, his prop provides value.
Georgia State ran the ball quite well against Mississippi last week. And prior to halftime, the Panthers rushed for better than four yards a carry, so these weren’t garbage-time numbers.
TJ Peyton picked up 55 yards on just four carries, busting a 49-yard run, and Rashad Amos had nine carries for 69 yards with a 29-yard scamper. And the Wildcats will look to run much more than the Panthers did.
Kentucky’s offensive line is vastly superior to Georgia State’s unit. If Dowdell gets double-digit carries here, he’ll eclipse his 45.5 yard total — a number he’s bested in 11 of his last 14 collegiate appearances.
Prop bet #3: Austin Simmons Under 275.5 passing yards
Lane Kiffin had nothing but praise for nearly all his players following the 63-3 win over Georgia State. The offensive line was the exception.
The interior of the Mississippi line has combined for fewer than 20 career starts, and Kiffin specifically called out both of the guards. The Panthers consistently put pressure on Simmons, and did so without blitzing.
One such situation led to Simmons’ second interception as he was hit while throwing. Those issues are likely to be exacerbated on Saturday.
The Wildcat defense looked impressive against Toledo, and PFF gave Steven Soles Jr. the top individual pass-rushing grade for Week 1. They also had the nation’s best team pass-rush grade according to PFF.
It’s also important to remember this will be the first road start for Simmons, and the Kentucky crowd will be ready to make noise with a mid-afternoon kickoff. The secondary will be a much-tougher test for him, and his decision-making was a bit suspect early against the Panthers.
It won’t surprise me to see Kiffin look to establish the run somewhat in order to help settle his young quarterback. Add in Kentucky’s desire to shorten the game, and Simmons may not have enough pass attempts in this one to reach his passing target.
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