Expectations may be tempered for both teams, but this one doesn’t lack intrigue when two in-state schools open the college football season as Southern Miss and Mississippi State face off.
The Bulldogs finished last in the SEC a season ago and have been pegged there once again. Southern Miss is looking for any type of improvement after a one-win season last year under first-year head coach Charles Huff.
My Mississippi State vs. Southern Miss predictions break it down here as I bring you my college football picks when the two teams meet Saturday, August 30th.
Mississippi State vs Southern Miss prediction
Mississippi State vs Southern Miss Best bet: Blake Shapen Under 0.5 interceptions (-115)
A -115 line for a QB to not throw an interception against a non-Power Four school is unusual, but there are reasons for the discount worth understanding.
Southern Miss may have a moment or two in this matchup. Optimism is higher than you’d expect after a one-win season, thanks to a strong offseason hire.
Add in a blackout game with an in-state opponent, and the crowd should be as rabid as possible. Will it rattle the quarterback?
This is also Shapen’s first real action in nearly a year after his season ended early due to injury against Florida. Will rust be a factor?
I think not. Shapen is a fifth-year senior who has already faced tougher road environments. Though last season was cut short, he still managed an 8-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, following a 13-to-3 mark the year before. Southern Miss could make this game strange, but that’s more likely to come from their offense than from mistakes forced on the QB.
Mississippi State vs Southern Miss same-game parlay
I don’t see enough to back Mississippi State winning by two touchdowns. Southern Miss has talent, including QB upgrades and over 30 transfers—25 from Marshall—plus an impact wideout in Ole Miss transfer Micah Davis.
As for the total, both defenses were awful last season, each allowing over 34 points per game. Until proven otherwise, I’ll keep fading them.
Our deep-ball SGP: TEASER
- Mississippi State will use a committee backfield, but Davon Booth should lead the way. He finished last year taking most of the carries and, with a clear edge in the trenches, he’s well-positioned to score.
- For Southern Miss, Micah Davis looks like the top deep threat. His SEC pedigree and big-play ability give him separation upside, and spring reports point to heavy volume. He’s the best bet among their receivers to find the end zone.
Mississippi State vs Southern Miss odds
- Mississippi State vs. Southern Miss spread: Southern Miss +12.5
- Mississippi State vs. Southern Miss moneyline: Mississippi State -450, Southern Miss +350
- Mississippi State vs. Southern Miss Over/Under: 61.5
Mississippi State vs Southern Miss betting trend to know
Mississippi State has covered the spread in its last four road games (+4.00 Units / 91% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Mississippi State vs Southern Miss.
How to watch Mississippi State vs Southern Miss
| Location | M.M. Roberts Stadium, Hattiesburg, MS |
| Date | Saturday, August 30, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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