The final regular season ACC matchup for the Miami Hurricanes and the Boston College Eagles on the gridiron kicks off Friday afternoon at Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts.
Both schools enter this matchup on multi-game losing streaks, but both have already earned bowl eligibility for the upcoming bowl season. The college football odds favor the visiting Hurricanes, while the 47-point total indicates a possibly high-scoring affair. Join me as I break it down and give my best free college football picks and predictions for Miami and Boston College on Friday, November 24.
Miami vs Boston College best odds
Miami vs Boston College picks and predictions
Regular season finales can be dicey, especially when the two teams involved don’t have much to play for except putting an end to their losing streaks. The Miami Hurricanes have lost three straight games and just one touchdown separated them from losses to Florida State and Louisville. The Hurricanes struggled to score at NC State to begin the skid, and it's the same story for Miami — the defense shows up, but the passing game has been inconsistent. As a result, Miami is 6-5-0 with a 6-5-0 Over/Under record to the Over.
Turnovers have been the Hurricanes' undoing, and as good as the ‘Canes' defense has been this season, 20 turnovers through 11 games have made winning more frequently difficult for the Hurricanes. Miami quarterbacks alone are responsible for 13 turnovers, and opposing teams have made a very good habit of scoring off of those mistakes.
As for Boston College, the Eagles have dropped two straight and have given up 82 points in losses to Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh.. They have a limited pass rush and have difficulties stopping the rush, but they have one of the best passing defenses in the country.
These schools have solid defenses, but turnovers usually place these defensive groups in challenging situations. Miami has the 55th-most takeaways yet has one of the worst turnover margins among FBS schools. Boston College is 64th in takeaways but has one more turnover than they’ve gained, so it’s not as big an issue for the Eagles as it is for Miami.
High-scoring affairs are the norm with these two groups; Miami has an Over/Under record of 6-5-0 to the OVER, while Boston College is 8-3-0 to the Over this season.
On Friday, I expect two teams likely better than their record to get after it. Miami quarterback Tyler Van Dyke can sling it and has three Hurricanes with 500+ receiving yards alongside three running backs with 400+ rushing yards.
Boston College QB Thomas Castellanos is a one-man wrecking crew with a solid back in Kye Robichaux, and those two have accounted for 30 of the Eagles' 34 touchdowns. Wideout Lewis Bond has 500+ receiving yards, and five other Eagles have 150+ receiving yards. Finally, both teams are difficult to trust in covering the spread. Miami has allowed 65 points over their past two, Boston College 72 points, and with the common theme for both groups being higher-scoring tilts, the 47-point total offered at Caesars is too low for this matchup.
My best bet: Over 47 (-110 at Caesars)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Miami vs Boston College same-game parlay
I like this two-leg parlay; it correlates well with the best bet and how I see this game ending.
These teams are going to score points against each other. There are far too many highly skilled offensive players from both groups, and the respective offenses are much better than the opposing defenses.
Miami covers the spread the same way they are going to score points. The Hurricanes boast seven big plays of over 50 yards with an additional seven plays of 60+. Miami will get off a couple of big plays, and the defense will likely make a play or two. The ‘Canes' defense will get enough stops for the offense to outscore Boston College and cover the -8.5.
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Miami vs Boston College spread and Over/Under analysis
Some money has come in on Boston College. Caesars opened the Eagles at +275, and that number has dipped to +240. BetRivers and Superbook have the best prices for Boston College (+270), while FanDuel has the best price for Miami (-255).
Boston College opened +7.5 (-110) at Caesars, and that number rose to +8.5 (-110). The one-point jump is average after a 35-point moneyline move, but I believe more strongly than the public that Miami will find a way to cover the spread.
Caesars opened the Over at 48.5 (-110), and that number dipped to 47 (-110). I don’t know why that is either, but I have read somewhere that many feel Miami won’t be able to perform in cold weather. Van Dyke is from Connecticut, and it’s colder there. He’ll be fine, and the Hurricanes will roll to victory in a high-scoring affair.
I don’t have a lean for this contest. I like to watch the game with my odds screen open, look for the favorite to trail early, and maybe take advantage of any overreaction on the money line or spread. I’m looking for plus-money on Miami and playing anything -4.5 or better in-game.
Miami vs Boston College betting trend to know
Miami (FL) has hit the Game Total Over in eight of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI), and Boston College has hit the Game Total Over in nine of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 43% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Miami vs Boston College.
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Miami vs Boston College game info
|Alumni Stadium, Chestnut Hill, MA
|Friday, November 24, 2023
|12:00 p.m. ET
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