The top of the National Championship odds board hardly changed this week, a result of the top eight all avoiding any stress in Week 4, be it because they took the week off, because they played an FCS opponent, or because Florida is simply too inept offensively to stress Miami.
Five teams continue to sit apart from the rest of the field, but one move up into the second tier raises an eyebrow beyond that simple move.
Is it possible the Oklahoma Sooners are so good that they are why LSU’s title odds fell? That move certainly cannot be the result of the Tigers beating FCS-level Southeast Louisiana.
Latest College Football National Championship Odds
It's not hard to spot the Oklahoma Sooners moving up to +1800 at FanDuel to win the national championship from +2500 a week ago. And it's not hard to understand why the Sooners made the biggest move of the week, rivaled most by Miami now at +1600 compared to +2000 a week ago.
Oklahoma saw one of the best offensive lines in the country and proceeded to hold Auburn to 67 yards on 35 rush attempts, an average of 1.9 yards per carry. Even when removing sacks, the Sooners gave up just 111 yards on 25 rush attempts, a boost in average to 4.4 yards per carry.
That may sound more tenable, but Auburn succeeded on only seven of those 25 rush attempts, averaging 0.00 expected points added per rush. Effectively, handing the ball off neither helped nor hurt the Tigers.
This was a dominant defensive showing from Oklahoma while one of the Heisman frontrunners, John Mateer (at +900 at FanDuel, he trails only Fernando Mendoza at +800), continued to find a myriad of ways into the end zone.
Was it such an impressive 24-17 win that it knocked LSU’s title odds down to +1400 from +1100 a week ago? That was the biggest drop of any contenders not named Clemson.
LSU routed an FCS team, 56-10. That's preferable to any alternatives in that matchup, and the 35-0 halftime lead left little in doubt. While it may not have been an impressive result, it was also not a disappointing one and should not have diminished the Tigers’ chances of winning the national championship.
However, when realizing LSU finishes the season at Oklahoma, it seems quite possible the Sooners influenced those odds.
Simply enough, because LSU has to face Oklahoma, its path to the College Football Playoff and/or the SEC title game is that much more difficult. And national championship odds factor each team’s path to the Playoff as much as they do each team’s talent levels comparable to other title contenders.
Latest National Championship favorites
- Ohio State: +600
- Penn State: +650
- Georgia: +700
- Oregon: +700
- Texas: +750
- Alabama: +1200
- LSU: +1400
- Miami: +1600
- Oklahoma: +1800
- Texas A&M: +2200
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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