College Football Best Bets and Returning Experience Buy, Sell, or Hold: Turtle Power!

In my most recent column, I broke down the transfer portal players that will have the most impact on the 2026 season. Today, I'm taking a look at the teams with returning experience (or lack thereof) that bettors should buy, sell, or hold on.

My college football best bets tell you why you shouldn't sleep on the Maryland Terrapins this year.

College football returning experience best bets

Pick	Odds
Georgia Over 9.5 wins	-145
Maryland Over 4.5 wins	-120
Iowa State Under 5.5 wins	-115
Georgia Tech Under 6.5 wins	-115

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College football returning experience teams I'm buying

Buy: Georgia Bulldogs

The Georgia Bulldogs return 12 starters this season and rank No. 8 in Bill Connelly's returning production, which is the best mark in the Kirby Smart era.

Speaking of Smart, he returns for his 11th season in Athens along with both of his coordinators, who have been there several seasons. The Bulldogs also return starting QB Gunner Stockton, as well as 16 of their 21 defenders who logged at least 150 snaps last year.

Thanks to this returning experience, my power ratings project Georgia to be favored in all 12 regular season games this year.

Best Bet: Georgia Over 9.5 wins (-145 at bet365)

Buy: Maryland Terrapins

The Maryland Terrapins return 14 starters this season, which is tied for the most in college football. The Terrapins also rank No. 2 in Bill Connelly’s returning production.

Malik Washington returns at QB after starting all 12 games as a true freshman. Maryland also returns their leading rusher in DeJuan Williams, their leading tackler in LB Daniel Wingate (102 tackles), and DE Sidney Stewart, who notched 10.5 TFLs.

My power ratings currently project Maryland to be favored in six games.

Best Bet: Maryland Over 4.5 wins (-120 at bet365)

College football returning experience teams I'm selling

Sell:  Iowa State Cyclones

The Iowa State Cyclones return not a single starter from last season, the only Power 4 conference school to do so. While new head coach Jimmy Rogers brings in 15 transfers from his former school Washington State, only two of those players were full-time starters.

Iowa State ranks only No. 102 overall in Bill Connelly’s returning production, which accounts for incoming transfers. My power ratings project Iowa State as a clear favorite (more than three points) in only two games (SE Missouri State and Bowling Green).

Best Bet: Iowa State Under 5.5 wins (-115 at BetMGM)

Sell:  Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets return only eight starters from last year. The Yellow Jackets lost QB Haynes King, who threw for 2,967 yards while also leading the team in rushing with 953 yards and 15 TDs.

On defense, Jordan van den Berg, who led the team in sacks and TFLs, departs. Most overlooked will be the loss of both hot-shot coordinators, as OC Buster Faulker left for Florida, and DC Blake Gideon left for Texas.

The Yellow Jackets play 11 Power 4 opponents this year, tied for most in the country.

Best Bet: Georgia Tech Under 6.5 wins (-115 at BetMGM)

Hold: Iowa Hawkeyes Over/Under 7.5 wins

The Iowa Hawkeyes return only seven starters from last year. The Hawkeyes added only one transfer who was a full-time starter at the FBS level last year and rank No. 104 in Bill Connelly’s returning production (second-lowest in Power 4).

So why am I not selling the Hawkeyes in 2026?

First, Iowa brings in eight quality starters from the FCS level, led by South Dakota RB LJ Phillips, who ran for 1,920 yards and 19 TD’s last year.

How will those players transition to the Power 4 talent level? I’m unsure right now.

Plus, Iowa under Kirk Ferentz has been remarkably consistent, winning at least seven games in 12 of the last 13 seasons, with the only exception being the shortened COVID season.

A season win total of 7.5 seems fair even with the inexperience at the FBS level.

More about returning experience in college football

Many bettors place wagers in the college football off-season utilizing returning experience.

For many years, returning experience in college football basically meant how many returning starters did you have. This was calculated typically by looking at participation charts in school media guides. There were no snap counts and advanced returning production formulas at the time.

Schools typically returned 13 starters on average out of 22 possible starters (11 on offense and defense). Experienced teams typically returned 16 or more, while inexperienced teams returned 10 or less. This pretty much held true for several years.

Average number of returning starters in CFB per school since 2015:

• 2015: 13.3
• 2016: 13.3
• 2017: 13.2
• 2018: 13.5
• 2019: 12.9
• 2020: 13.0
• 2021: 16.2 ("Super Seniors" due to COVID-19)
• 2022: 12.3
• 2023: 12.1
• 2024: 11.5
• 2025: 8.6
• 2026: 8.1

As you can see, the number of returning starters has decreased significantly in recent years. Last year, that number dropped below 11 for the first time, and this year it is down to only eight.

Obviously, the transfer portal is the big reason for the drop, especially at Group of Six schools where quality starters are extremely likely to leave for greener pastures in the Power Four conferences.

Power 4 schools with the most returning starters in 2026:

• Maryland: 14
• Minnesota: 14
• Notre Dame: 14
• Oregon: 14

Power 4 schools with the fewest returning starters in 2026:

• Iowa State: 0
• Oklahoma State: 2
• West Virginia: 3
• Colorado: 3
• Penn State: 3

While the transfer portal has led to decreased returning experience, there are a few schools that have taken advantage of the portal to load up their roster year after year with starters from other schools. Texas Tech is good example of that this year, where the Red Raiders return 12 starters from last year and then added 11 more full-time starters from the FBS.

Power 4 schools with the most returning starters in 2026 (including FBS transfers):

• Texas Tech: 23
• Tennessee: 22
• Texas: 22

Power 4 schools with the fewest returning starters in 2026 (including FBS transfers):

• North Carolina: 7
• Iowa: 8
• Iowa State: 10

Returning starters is just one way to account for returning experience. One of the more popular and much more advanced methods used today is Bill Connelly’s returning production rankings. Connelly accounts for everything in these rankings, including OL snaps, rushing, receiving, and passing yards, defensive snaps, tackles, and TFLs — and now he also factors in transfers.

Highest Returning Production in 2026 (Power 4):

• Notre Dame: 72%
• Maryland: 71%
• Nebraska: 69%

Lowest Returning Production in 2026 (Power 4):

• Vanderbilt: 44%
• Iowa: 44%
• North Carolina: 44%

Note the bottom 32 schools in Bill Connelly’s returning production rankings were all Group of Six schools.

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