Kansas vs Kansas State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Defense Wins Rivalry Games

With a victory, Kansas State will earn a spot in the Big 12 title game for the first time since 2003. Earlier in the season, Kansas looked like it might be a worthy rival, but things have shifted. The Wildcats should beat the Jayhawks but by how much?

Last Updated: Nov 26, 2022 8:00 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Deuce Vaughn Kansas State Wildcats College Football
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Governor’s Cup will go back up for grabs on Saturday night when the Kansas Jayhawks will travel to Manhattan, KS to face the Kansas State Wildcats.

The Jayhawks are 6-5 after a crushing loss against Texas and have lost five of their past six games. Kansas State is 8-3 after winning three of four, including back-to-back victories. Will Kansas State continue its recent dominance in this intrastate rivalry?

Find out in our free college football betting picks and predictions for Kansas vs. Kansas State on Saturday, November 26. 

Kansas vs Kansas State best odds

Kansas vs Kansas State picks and predictions

This heated rivalry may get more attention in the basketball arena, but there are massive implications in this year’s football edition. If Kansas State wins for a 14th consecutive time in this rivalry, the Wildcats will be heading to the Big 12 title game for the first time since 2003.

The Wildcats will be without starting quarterback Adrian Martinez for the fifth time this season. While Martinez has had a fantastic year, backup Will Howard has more than held his own. In basically four complete games, Kansas State is 3-1 with the lone loss coming at TCU in a close contest. He has won all three games as a starter this year.

Howard has 1,011 passing yards for 11 touchdowns with only two interceptions to go along with 46 rushing yards and two more touchdowns in those four games. He also has plenty of weapons at his disposal. Kansas State has five different players with at least 25 catches, 300 receiving yards, and two touchdowns. This includes superstar running back Deuce Vaughn.

Vaughn has rushed for 1,148 yards with six touchdowns to go along with his 38 catches for 266 yards and three touchdowns. Last year, Vaughn ran for 162 yards and three touchdowns on only 11 carries to go along with six catches for 70 yards in a 35-10 road win vs. Kansas. He had 152 total yards and a touchdown two seasons ago in this same clash. 

The Jayhawks defense has struggled mightily this season despite a 5-0 start to the year. They rank 127th in total defense and 118th against the run. They will have plenty of issues on Saturday against this Kansas State offense, even without Martinez at quarterback. They have allowed 40.4 points per game in their five road games this season.

Kansas State will not only have its way on offense, but it also has a spectacular defense that only allows 18.7 points per game. The Jayhawks struggled to get anything going offensively last week against Texas and this week will likely be more of the same. Kansas State will continue its dominance in this rivalry and take home the Governor’s Cup for a 14th consecutive season while winning by a double-digit margin.

My best bet: Kansas State -11.5 (-110 at PointsBet)

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Kansas vs Kansas State spread analysis

Even though Kansas will have Jalon Daniels back at the helm and will be facing a backup quarterback on the other end, the junior QB struggled against a lesser defense last week. The Jayhawks do not turn the ball over often, but neither do the Wildcats. Kansas State ranks fifth in the country in turnover margin.

Kansas will likely be able to rack up some yards throughout the game but will struggle to find the end zone. Another weakness will come into play here for the Jayhawks on special teams, as kicker Jacob Borcila is only 7-for-13 on his field goal attempts this season.

Kansas State has both a blocked punt return for a touchdown and returned a punt for a score this season. Only two of the previous 13 matchups were decided by single digits and the Jayhawks have only covered three of those 13 against the spread. 

The Wildcats are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games played in the month of November and this game will likely continue that trend. They should have an advantage in all three phases of the game and they need this win to clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game. This could be an easy cover for Kansas State. 

Kansas vs Kansas State Over/Under analysis

If this game was played early in the season when Kansas was rolling, this would have been an easy Over. However, Kansas only has scored 25.5 points per game in its last four contests. Defenses seem to have figured the Jayhawks out. 

Kansas State has allowed some of the elite teams in the conference to put up big points but has completely shut everyone else down, allowing 16.8 points per game to unranked teams. 

The Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams. The Under is 5-1 in the Jayhawks’ last six games against a team with a winning record. Finally, the Under is 14-5-1 in the Wildcats’ last 20 games played in the month of November.  

Kansas State will likely light up the scoreboard early, but they will also shut down the Kansas offense. An early blowout will only help the Under as the Wildcats will slow down the game in that scenario. I must lean towards the Under here. 

Kansas vs Kansas State betting trend to know

The favorite is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings. Find more NCAA betting trends for Kansas vs. Kansas State.

Kansas vs Kansas State game info

Location: Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, KS
Date: Saturday, November 26, 2022
Kickoff: 8:00 p.m. ET
TV: FOX

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