The vast majority of the college football world agrees that the James Madison Dukes have little chance of springing an upset on the Oregon Ducks.
The best way to capitalize on that likelihood isn’t available among FanDuel’s player prop offerings as of Friday afternoon, simply because it’s unclear which Ducks wideouts will be available after two have been hampered by injury recently.
Despite my James Madison vs. Oregon player props leaning away from Oregon’s receiving arsenal, I’m still expecting a productive game from Ducks quarterback Dante Moore.
Read more in my college football picks for Saturday, December 20.
James Madison vs Oregon props for CFP First Round
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Kenyon Sadiq |
Under 57.5 receiving yards | -114 at FanDuel |
| Dante Moore |
Over 228.5 passing yards | -114 at FanDuel |
 Alonza Barnett |
Under 25.5 rushing yards | -114 at FanDuel |
Kenyon Sadiq Under 57.5 receiving yards
Let’s assume Oregon wideout Evan Stewart will not make a huge impact if he debuts in the Playoff. Stewart suffered a knee injury in June and has not yet played this season, but he is considered questionable for the first-round matchup.
Dakorien Moore and Gary Bryant Jr. are also listed as questionable. Moore has missed the last four games, while Bryant has missed the last three. Will either play against James Madison? I suppose that is the point of the injury report listing them as questionable.
Moore, in particular, would be an asset. His top-end speed would make touchdown props quite desirable. The first thought in this props article was Moore to score at least two touchdowns.
If that was the thought, then logic views this Kenyon Sadiq yardage prop as too high. Some of his targets should go to Moore and/or Bryant. The tight end is a clear NFL talent who should find success against the Dukes, but he has been held in check plenty this season, including by Washington and Wisconsin in his last four games.
There is defensible value in doubting Sadiq, even if neither Moore nor Bryant plays. But if either or both of them do, then this Under will suddenly look quite shrewd.
Dante Moore Over 228.5 passing yards
Dante Moore has not needed Moore and Bryant to stack up stats. He cleared this prop in each of the last three games, averaging 283 yards per game. Those were not exactly close games, each at least a two-touchdown win, and the Ducks winning by an average of 18.7 points.
But if Moore and/or Bryant do play, that will further Moore’s odds of jumping this yardage prop. Even if it becomes a blowout of James Madison, as expected, reestablishing his rhythm with those receivers will hold long-term value.
James Madison has a quality passing defense, but it has not faced an offense like Oregon’s. Faith in Moore is warranted no matter the skill players available to him, but there will be a bounty of value on this prop if Moore and/or Bryant suit up.
Alonza Barnett Under 25.5 rushing yards
James Madison likely has some trickery up its sleeve, but also expect Bob Chesney to try to shorten this matchup. The Dukes already run better than they throw, and they run often to start with the 23rd-highest relative rate in the country, per CFB-graphs.com.
However, that should not be via quarterback Alonza Barnett, at least not extensively. Opponents rarely run their quarterbacks against Oregon due to the quality of the Ducks’ defensive front.
Nonetheless, the Dukes’ focus on the run early would keep the ball out of Oregon’s hands a bit, at which point James Madison can hope variance breaks its way.
Eventually, the Ducks should find success. Once the Dukes are down multiple scores, they will have little choice but to drop back and pass. In those same moments, Oregon’s defensive line will know to do nothing but pursue the passer.
The Ducks conjure pressure on more than 40% of opposing dropbacks, the 10th-highest rate in the country. Those pressures should yield sacks against Barnett, and each sack will count against his rushing total.
Both aspects of this likely game state work against Barnett cracking this prop.
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