Welcome back, college football. Welcome back, Big 12 parity. Welcome back, chaos.
The Iowa State Cyclones travel all the way to Dublin to face off against the Kansas State Wildcats, even though the two are separated by just Nebraska back home. Kicking off the season in Ireland may be unusual, but this matchup carries real College Football Playoff implications. The Wildcats enter as Big 12 favorites, though they’re only 3.5-point favorites this weekend.
My Iowa State vs. Kansas State predictions and college football picks expect immediate Big 12 chaos.
Kickoff comes at noon ET on Saturday, August 23.
Iowa State vs Kansas State prediction
Iowa State vs Kansas State best bet: Iowa State +3.5 (-115)
Few things are more reliable in September (or, in this case, August) than a proven and experienced offensive line. Betting on an underdog of more than a field goal with the better offensive line is rarely a bad idea.
Add in the more veteran quarterback, and taking the underdog here makes even more sense.
That will be the most crucial matchup in Dublin, one of the top two defensive lines in the Big 12 facing an offensive line returning 106 starts. An unstoppable force vs. an immovable object is always a delight.
On the other side of the ball, it will be a stoppable force against an unknown object. And again, that is an edge to Iowa State. Kansas State returns just two starters along the offensive line, and while they are known for their development, they now have to find cohesion without longtime offensive line coach Conor Riley.
Iowa State defensive coordinator Jon Heacock is undoubtedly ready to test that offensive line. Some blitzes would not be a shock as he trusts his linebackers immensely, and the Iowa State defensive line is also underappreciated, diminished a bit in 2024 by injury.
The edge in the trenches lies with the Cyclones on both sides of the ball. Catching that hook past three with that edge is delightful value.
Iowa State vs Kansas State same-game parlay
Iowa State’s defense is the underappreciated piece of this game. It returns two defensive backs who will stress Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson. On a relatively cold day in Dublin — in the 60s in the evening, compared to 90 degrees of late in Manhattan, Kansas — Johnson may resort to running the ball even more.
He scored at least one rushing touchdown in six of his last eight games last year in his first year as a starter. It took a few weeks for offensive coordinator Matt Wells to best understand how to use his star quarterback, but once he did, Johnson became a scoring option.
Our deep-ball SGP: Cyclones bend but don't break
If expecting Avery Johnson to struggle in the passing game, and the Iowa State defense to encourage an Under in a game that traditionally starts slowly (three of the last four games in Dublin have gone Under their totals by an average of 8.67 points), then taking the moneyline on the short underdog is a savvy play when looking for a long shot.
Iowa State vs Kansas State game predictions
Iowa State vs Kansas State moneyline prediction
Iowa State was an underdog just twice last season, winning both games outright. And now the Cyclones are even more experienced as well as a touch better in terms of analytics.
Kansas State lost outright three times as a favorite last season, and now the Wildcats have some worries both up front and in their secondary.
Iowa State may be an underdog in Dublin, but it should win.
Iowa State vs Kansas State spread prediction
This spread should be no higher than +3. No one should turn down +3.5.
In a close game, there is hardly anyone better to trust than Rocco Becht. The Cyclones quarterback navigated his way to a 5-1 record in one-score games last season.
Iowa State vs Kansas State Over/Under prediction
This total ticked up a point this week. Let’s assume that is an influx of money ready for the season to start with a bang.
More likely, it is slow early. Matt Campbell and Chris Klieman are both the kind of coach happy to mind his time for a month, assess his opponent for any scheme changes.
Stress should not begin in Dublin until after halftime.
Iowa State vs Kansas State odds
- Iowa State vs. Kansas State spread: Kansas State +3.5
- Iowa State vs. Kansas State moneyline: Iowa State +134, Kansas State -162
- Iowa State vs. Kansas State Over/Under: 50.5
Iowa State vs Kansas State betting trend to know
Matt Campbell has gone 4-1 against the spread against Chris Klieman in the last five seasons, Klieman’s entire tenure with Kansas State. Find more college football betting trends for Iowa State vs Kansas State.
How to watch Iowa State vs Kansas State
| Location | Aviva Stadium, Dublin, Ireland |
| Date | Saturday, August 23, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Learn how to watch Iowa State vs. Kansas State with the help of our handy viewing guide.
Iowa State vs Kansas State latest injuries
Iowa State vs Kansas State weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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