The Indiana Hoosiers have lived up to expectations for an emerging program, but to shed the “upstart” label, Curt Cignetti needs a signature win over a true top-10 opponent.
In Week 7, the Oregon Ducks fit that bill perfectly—ranked No. 3 in the latest polls and holding the second-best national title odds at FanDuel.
My Indiana vs. Oregon predictions see the Hoosiers starting strong, but not quite pulling off the upset.
Read more in my college football picks for Saturday, October 9.
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Indiana vs Oregon prediction
Indiana vs Oregon best bet: First half Over 27.5 points (-105)
There may not be five more openly competitive coaches at the FBS level than Curt Cignetti and Dan Lanning. They each seethe with intensity on Saturdays, though they act on it differently.
Cignetti boasts all week long about his team and about his successes as a coach, while Lanning riles up his locker room in Saturday’s pregame. Both approaches should help this early Over.
While Indiana has scored touchdowns on just two of its five opening drives this season, failing on a first-and-goal from the one in the season opener is actually an encouraging sign. The Hoosiers have mounted quality possessions on three of their opening drives this season and scored touchdowns on the second drives of their other two games.
Cignetti dials up a solid script, and when it clicks, he has confidence in his game plan for the rest of the game.
In 3 outta 5 games, Indiana has opened w/ a quality drive.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 9, 2025
In all five, Indiana had at least one quality drive on its first two possessions.
Oregon has cleared the first half Over in 3 of 5 games. The two exceptions: the shores of Lake Michigan and at Penn State.
1H O 27.5 https://t.co/6fHP0vieoI pic.twitter.com/KoQALRgIEN
Meanwhile, Lanning likes to run up the score in the first half for Oregon. Deion Sanders and Mike Gundy have both learned that the hard way.
Cignetti has not publicly appalled Lanning like those two, but the Ducks head coach will still undoubtedly find some grievance to voice in his locker room.
Oregon has cleared the first-half total in three of its five games this season, the exceptions coming on the shores of Lake Michigan at Northwestern’s temporary stadium, where Unders are a matter of form, and at Penn State in an absolute slugfest.
Cignetti’s script and Lanning’s urgency should combine for at least four touchdowns before Saturday’s break.
Indiana vs Oregon same-game parlay
Indiana boasts the No. 2 pass defense in the country in terms of expected points added (EPA) per dropback, a flex that led to the blowout of Illinois a few weeks ago.
However, Oregon is already better at running the ball than throwing it, so expect the Ducks to lean on freshman running back Dierre Hill Jr. just as they did at Penn State two weeks ago, when he took 10 carries for 82 yards.
That is, until the Hoosiers have committed to slowing Hill, and thus Dakorien Moore finds a mismatch on the perimeter.
Indiana vs Oregon SGP
- First Half Over 27.5 points
- Dierre Hill Jr. Over 45.5 rushing yards
- Dakorien Moore anytime touchdown
Our deep-ball SGP: Reaching the Mendoza Line
Either Oregon has built a lead and Indiana needs to chuck to try to catch up, or Indiana has found some success through the air and should keep chucking.
Whichever way the game unfolds, it's likely Fernando Mendoza clears this prop for the fifth straight game.
Indiana vs Oregon SGP
- First half Over 27.5 points
- Dierre Hill Jr. Over 45.5 rushing yards
- Dakorien Moore anytime touchdown
- Fernando Mendoza Over 229.5 passing yards
Indiana vs Oregon game predictions
Indiana vs Oregon moneyline prediction
Indiana is 0-2 outright as an underdog in Cignetti’s year-plus, falling to Ohio State last regular season and then Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff.
Two such stumbles to the teams that eventually met in the national championship game are hardly something to fret over, but every opportunity missed will embolden Cignetti’s critics.
Yours truly is not bold enough to bet on the Hoosiers on Saturday, but there should be some acknowledgement that Indiana’s defensive line warrants more faith than most realize.
If the Hoosiers find an upset, this may be that line’s coming-out party.
Indiana vs Oregon spread prediction
As long as this spread lingers past a full touchdown, one may wonder if Indiana will emphasize a backdoor cover.
Fernando Mendoza has thrown at least two touchdowns in every game this season, and the Hoosiers have a few receivers more than capable of making big plays.
Indiana vs Oregon Over/Under prediction
While Oregon has cashed just 12 Overs in 23 home games during Lanning’s tenure, the Ducks hit the Over in all three of their notable matchups at home last season, clearing those totals by an average of 12.8 points.
Indiana vs Oregon odds
- Spread: Indiana +7.5 (-110) | Oregon -7.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Indiana +225 | Oregon -275
- Over/Under: Over 54.5 (-110) | Under 54.5 (-110)
Indiana vs Oregon trend to know
Oregon is 3-1-1 against the spread this season, including 2-0-1 at home. Find more college football betting trends for Indiana vs Oregon.
How to watch Indiana vs Oregon
| Location | Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR |
| Date | Saturday, October 11, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 3:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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