Florida vs Kentucky Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Gators Suffocate Wildcats' Rushing Attack

It’s a massive weekend in Kentucky, as sports betting went live on Thursday for the first time. And it’s perfect timing, as the unbeaten Kentucky Wildcats welcome the Florida Gators to Lexington in an important SEC showdown.

Wildcats fans will be paying more attention to college football odds than ever before and will hope to bet on their team pulling off a third straight victory against a Florida team that terrorized them for decades. A win would move them to 5-0 ahead of a meeting with Georgia and would be a massive step forward for the team.

But Florida’s a huge step up in talent compared to who they’ve played this season. The Gators rebounded from their season-opening embarrassing defeat to Utah with three straight wins, including a victory over Tennessee. Florida will hope its defense can continue their impressive play while the offense does just enough to win.

Our college football picks and predictions for Florida vs. Kentucky explain why there's great value in a particular player prop. 

Florida vs Kentucky best odds

Florida vs Kentucky picks and predictions

There are few things more enjoyable than a big play in a football game, and Kentucky’s offense has had plenty of those this season.

The Wildcats rank seventh in the country in runs of 30 or more yards, busting off five such plays. They also rank 11th in runs of 20-plus yards. 

And it’s not just the run game that’s busted big plays. Only four teams have more pass completions of at least 50 yards than Kentucky, as the Cats have already notched four of them this season.

Their defense and special teams have also been involved in the fun. Last week, cornerback Maxwell Hairston took two interceptions back for touchdowns, and receiver Barion Brown took a kickoff 99 yards in the season opener against Ball State.

Big plays are great, but you need to also be able to grind out consistent gains in order to win close games against good opponents. That’s where Kentucky’s fallen short — which is why we’re taking running back Ray Davis to fall short of his 79.5-yard rushing total on Saturday.

Davis has rushed for 314 yards on 50 carries this season, averaging 6.3 yards per run. While that initially sounds impressive, there are reasons for concern when you dive a bit deeper into the numbers.

Three of those carries have accounted for 123 yards, including a 55-yard dash against Akron. If you take those out of the equation, the average drops to just over four yards per rush.

Kentucky’s offensive line is also generating just 2.6 yards per rush, which is equal to Kentucky’s open field yards per rush. Having those two numbers be equal is an indicator that the Wildcats are not generating strong runs without the big plays.

This is why when you look at how many runs they have of 10 or more yards, Kentucky is no longer close to the top of the list. The Wildcats rank 74th in college football in run plays that have generated double-digit yardage, despite having played a very weak schedule consisting of games with Ball State, Eastern Kentucky, Akron, and Vanderbilt.

Now they’re going to face a Florida defense that has allowed just 12 carries of 10 yards or more. The Gators have also given up just four runs of 20-plus yards, and only once have they surrendered a 30-yard run.

The front seven for the Gators are allowing just 2.2 offensive line yards per rush, and have done an exceptional job at limiting open field and second-level rushing yards. Even against a Top 25 team like Utah, they held the Utes to just 105 rushing yards on 30 carries.

There are two other aspects to keep in mind as well. First, Davis’ rushing total of 79.5 yards on the ground is a bit high. Even with his big runs, Davis has topped 80 yards just once this season. 

Davis is also not a high-volume guy, with 17 carries last week being his season-high. I also expect Kentucky to rely a bit more on JuTahn McClain, a back who can provide more physicality between the tackles than Davis, as they look to sustain drives. 

I'm all over Under 79.5 rushing yards for Davis, a number that is far too high when all factors are taken into account. 

My best bet: Ray Davis Under 79.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)

Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Florida vs Kentucky same-game parlay

Ray Davis Under 79.5 rushing yards (-115)
Tayvion Robinson Over 74.5 receiving yards (-115)
Devin Leary Over 0.5 interceptions thrown (-160)

Trevor Etienne anytime touchdown (-138)

+800 at bet365

Our same-game parlay offers the best odds over at bet365, which just went live in Kentucky as their newest state! And at +800, we have a terrific parlay for you to profit from.

Kentucky receiver Tayvion Robinson has been the most reliable target for quarterback Devin Leary. He’s also a player they like to use on jet-sweep toss plays, and I expect to see him get one or two opportunities to make plays with his legs. With Brown and Dane Key occupying attention downfield, I like Robinson to top 50 yards in this one.

Meanwhile, Leary’s already thrown five interceptions this season. It’s hard to see him breaking that trend against a very athletic Florida secondary.

Finally, Florida’s going to need a strong game from running back Trevor Etienne if they hope to end their two-game losing streak to the Wildcats. Kentucky’s defense has adopted a “bend but don’t break” style thus far, so I anticipate Etienne to get a few carries near the goal line.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Florida vs Kentucky spread and Over/Under analysis

After being bet to as much as a 3-point favorite, the Wildcats sit at either -1.0 or -1.5 heading into the weekend. The Gators are reaching as high as +102 on the moneyline, and it’ll be interesting to see if any late money pushes them into favored status.

Florida will need Graham Mertz to continue his consistent play over the past few weeks to be present on Saturday, rather than reverting to the quarterback we saw at Utah. However, this will be a tough environment for him to step into, especially behind an offensive line that hasn’t protected him well this season.

For me, that’s the reason Kentucky will win. While its offensive line hasn’t been great, the Florida defensive line hasn’t been able to create pressure or sack the quarterback on a consistent basis either. It’ll be a tight game, but give me the team that can keep their quarterback upright more often while creating negative plays on the other side of the ball.

That’s also why I’m leaning Under in this one. The total reflects that view, having moved down quickly from an opening number of 47.5 to the 44.5 total, where it currently sits. The Wildcats are averaging 38 points per game, but their defense and special teams have accounted for multiple scores. 

Florida has failed to reach 30 points in their three games against FBS teams, and each of the last three meetings between these two programs has 44 points or less. Both of these defenses should make enough plays to keep the number low once again.

Florida vs Kentucky betting trend to know

The Under is 11-2 in Kentucky’s last 13 games. Find more college football betting trends for Florida vs. Kentucky.

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