The Florida State Seminoles stunned the college football world when they upset the Alabama Crimson Tide as 13.5-point underdogs to open the season.
But we haven’t heard much from the Seminoles since then, as they’ve rolled a couple of overwhelmed opponents. They’ll get their first real test since Week 1 as they hit the road to take on an underrated Virginia Cavaliers team to open ACC play on Friday, September 26.
My Florida State vs. Virginia predictions break down how the Hoos can keep this one close with college football picks highlighted by a player prop in Charlottesville.
Florida State vs Virginia prediction
Florida State vs Virginia best bet: Trell Harris Over 54.5 receiving yards (-114)
There’s no doubt that Florida State has looked impressive. The win over Alabama as 13.5-point underdogs was one of the best wins in college football this season.
But the Seminoles are in an interesting spot on Friday night. To start, it’s a short week, and the team is a bit banged up. On top of that, this is a classic look-ahead spot, with No. 3 Miami on deck next week.
And a rapidly improving Virginia team is one you can't safely disregard. The Cavaliers are 3-1 and would probably be 4-0 if not for a second-half collapse against NC State.
Virginia looks like a well-rounded team, but it’s QB Chandler Morris who leads this group. He’s thrown for 1,050 yards with eight touchdowns and just one interception. That passing attack has the Cavs ranked 26th in offensive success rate, and he has a chance to keep that going in this matchup, or at least, enough to cash this best bet.
For that, I’m taking Trell Harris Over 54.5 receiving yards. Harris has become Morris’ favorite target, catching 18 balls for 321 yards and three scores.
Florida State allowed Alabama wideout Germie Bernard to go for 146 yards on eight catches. And while they held Ryan Williams to 30, that number is probably much higher if not for a case of the drops. As a result, the Seminoles rank a middling 52nd in opponent EPA per dropback.
Morris will have success moving the ball through the air against a Florida State team that may be overlooking this Viginia team a bit, finding Harris more than enough times to send him over this number.
Florida State vs Virginia same-game parlay
Florida State has been impressive this season, and a big part of that has been because of QB Tommy Castellanos, who is thriving in Gus Malzhan’s offense, which is all about running the football.
In fact, the Seminoles have the fourth-highest run-play percentage so far this season. Castellanos has rushed the ball 27 times for 139 yards and three scores.
Virginia’s defense is solid, but we saw them give up 44 yards to NC State QB CJ Bailey back in Week 2. He should clear this number in this one and for the third time in four games.
That said, Florida State’s propensity for running the football and the potential for looking past Virginia here means this game could be closer than casual college football fans might realize, and I like taking the points with the home team.
Florida State vs Virginia SGP
- Trell Harris Over 54.5 receiving yards
- Thomas Castellanos Over 45.5 rushing yards
- Virginia +6.5
Our deep-ball SGP: Harris is the headline act
Let's add Harris to find the end zone to turn this from a regular SGP to a lotto ticket. He's already scored three times this season.
Florida State vs Virginia SGP
- Trell Harris Over 54.5 receiving yards
- Trell Harris anytime TD
- Thomas Castellanos Over 45.5 rushing yards
- Virginia +6.5
Florida State vs Virginia odds
- Spread: Florida State -6.5 | Virginia +6.5
- Moneyline: Florida State -250 | Virginia +202
- Over/Under: Over 59.5 | Under 59.5
Florida State vs Virginia trend to know
Florida State and Virginia are a combined 7-0 to the Over this season. Find more college football betting trends for Florida State vs Virginia.
How to watch Florida State vs Virginia
| Location | Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, VA |
| Date | Friday, September 26, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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