Duke and Miami meet up for an ACC affair in a matchup that contrasts two teams with very different views on their season thus far.
For Duke, there is excitement around the program for the first time in a while. While they are riding a two-game losing streak, the Blue Devils are off to their best start in a few years. They come into this one off a heartbreaking loss to arch-rival North Carolina.
On the other hand, Miami has been a disappointment. As usual, the Hurricanes had high aspirations in the preseason and failed to reach them. They have lost two of their last three, including a blowout to Middle Tennessee State a few weeks ago.
How will this one shake out? Find out in our free college football picks and predictions for Miami vs. Duke on October 22.
Duke vs Miami best odds
Duke vs Miami picks and predictions
The two tones surrounding these two programs couldn't be more different. It seems impossible to back Miami to cover a double-digit number with any confidence, so I'm not going to do it. In fact, I will take things further and pick the Blue Devils to pull off the outright win.
Even though they've lost two of their last three, Duke has played well. The program has lost its previous two games by a combined six points, signaling a team very close to getting over the hump. The Blue Devils were unlucky against North Carolina, and a few better breaks could have resulted in a different outcome.
They'll win this game because they are a team that doesn't make many mistakes and are going up against one that makes tons of them. The Hurricanes had a mind-blowing 17 penalties in its last game, which indicates what they've been most of the season. Miami is the highest-penalized team in the ACC, and Duke commits the third-fewest.
Besides being unable to overcome the sloppiness, Miami can't stop what Duke wants to do the most, and that's to run the ball. Duke has the second-best rushing attack in the ACC, and they are getting yardage in bulk at a clip of 5.5 per carry. Based on the numbers, Miami's rushing defense has been stout, but I'm not sure its front four can match Dukes.
I'm getting a pretty attractive price on a team that should control the line of scrimmage. I'm not a believer in Miami QB Tyler Van Dyke on the other side of the ball. He's been beloved by analysts and draft scouts alike, but he doesn't pass the eye test for me. He will have openings against a shaky Duke secondary, but I'm not sold he can make them pay for it.
Van Dyke's numbers are pretty pedestrian, with a QBR of 56.6 and questionable completion rates like the game against MTSU when he finished at a measly 50%. I expect Duke to control the line of scrimmage and to drop players back in coverage, forcing Tyler Van Dyke to beat him.
Unfortunately for Miami, I don't think he can.
My best bet: Duke moneyline (+255 at FanDuel)
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Duke vs Miami spread analysis
I'm all about the Blue Devils in this one. However, if you're not inclined to take the outright moneyline, I'd definitely recommend taking them and the points. Some markets are still hanging 10 with Miami as of publication, and that's far too many.
This market opened up -9 and has seen some variety across the board. No matter where you look, it's pretty clear that there is no real consensus amongst the betting public. Something that wasn't mentioned at the onset is one of the significant parts of its rushing attack: dual-threat QB Riley Leonard. He's averaging 6.6 yards per attempt on the ground this season.
Miami has yet to see many mobile quarterbacks this season, so it's anybody's guess how the Hurricanes will react to one. However, another unknown aspect makes me feel like a Duke win is possible here.
Duke vs Miami Over/Under analysis
On paper, Miami's passing attack should be able to also have success as the Hurricanes rank 20th in passing yards per game (321.7). In addition, I've told you why Duke will have a good day on the ground. If both offenses can take advantage of the angels they have, then obviously, the Over is the right play.
On the other side of the ball, maybe I've underestimated Miami's front seven, and it stifles the run, which could lead to the clock continuously running and the game going Under.
It's hard to pick which one of these scenarios will occur, so I won't touch this market.
Duke vs Miami betting trend to know
The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams. Find more NCAA betting trends for Duke vs. Miami.
Duke vs Miami game info
|Location:||Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL|
|Date:||Saturday, October 22, 2022|
|Kickoff:||12:30 p.m. ET|
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