These two universities, both from the state of Colorado, will meet for only the second time since 1974 when the Colorado Buffaloes head to the Air Force Academy to take on the Air Force Falcons on Saturday.
These two teams are coming into Saturday off opposite ends of the spectrum of Week 1 results. Colorado got manhandled by TCU, while Air Force made light work of Northern Illinois. However, were those results more of a result of the level of competition from their opposition?
Find out in our free college football betting picks and predictions for Colorado vs. Air Force on Saturday, September 10.
Colorado vs Air Force best odds
Colorado vs Air Force picks and predictions
It can be dangerous to look solely at Week 1 performances and determine that as a reason to pick a side in Week 2 of college football. However, there is so much more at play in this pick than just Week 1 results, which happens to also support the play.
Air Force is a heavy run offense using the triple-option style. Last season, it was the top rushing offense in the country at 325.2 rushing yards per game. It continued that into this season by rushing for 582 yards and 9.4 yards per carry in its 48-17 win over Northern Illinois. The Falcons returned their starting quarterback and their four best rushers from the previous season.
Colorado, on the other hand, struggled mightily to stop the run in its 38-13 loss to TCU last week. They allowed 275 rushing yards and 9.2 yards per carry. Last season, Colorado ranked 100th in rushing defense, allowing 193.1 yards per game. The Buffs only returned eight of their Top-15 tacklers from a mediocre season last year.
The positive for Colorado is a graduate transfer from West Virginia, linebacker Josh Chandler-Semedo. He was third-team All-Big 12 last year, and he was the second leading tackler last week for Colorado. He will likely continue to see more time and he will be key for this matchup against the triple option.
If Air Force had a bad defense, I would be less confident in this pick, but the Falcons are returning nine of their Top-12 tacklers from a team that ranked 16th in the country in points allowed per game. They forced two turnovers last week and only allowed two touchdowns late in the game after already being up 48-3.
The Falcons will dominate the ground game and there will be little that Colorado can do offensively to keep up with the scoring pace. This spread has moved from 14 to 17.5 for good reason and I would be willing to take any number below 21.
My best bet: Air Force -17.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
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Colorado vs Air Force betting preview
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•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Spread analysis
Another good reason to like Air Force on the spread here is the question marks at the quarterback position for Colorado. You know the old saying, "when you have two quarterbacks, you actually have none".
Last week, returning starting quarterback from last year Brendon Lewis started the game before being pulled for backup J.T. Shrout. Lewis was 13-for-18 for only 78 yards passing to go with eight carries for 42 yards. Meanwhile, Shrout came in and went 13 of 23 for 157 yards and a score. However, Shrout is not a rushing threat like Lewis.
Colorado has not announced who will start this game and will keep it a game-time decision. Shrout will be better for trying to score quickly, but Lewis will be better for keeping the defense fresh for longer drives.
Either way, this spells trouble for Colorado against an Air Force team that thrives on wearing down defenses and stopping opponents from scoring.
Colorado started last year 2-5 against the spread and failed to cover Week 1 against TCU. Air Force covered the last four games of last year and the first game of this season. The Falcons will continue their hot streak this Saturday against the Buffs.
Over/Under analysis
Much like the spread, the total has moved quite a bit since opening. The total opened at 45.5 but has moved all the way up to 49.5. This is understandable given that Air Force just scored 48 points and Colorado just allowed 38 points.
However, both teams are going to lean on the run game and even though they have some big play potential, there will be little clock stoppage. If either defense makes it difficult on the opposing run game, there is a major likelihood of an Under. It's going to be difficult for Colorado to move the ball on Air Force.
While I am big on the Air Force run game to have their way on the Colorado defense, I do not see them scoring well over 40 points again. I definitely do not like Colorado to put up points outside of maybe some garbage time scoring.
If I had to predict a final score, I would go with a 35-10 Air Force win. I would lean on the Under here with little confidence.
Colorado vs Air Force game info
• Location: Falcon Stadium, USAF Academy, CO
• Date: Saturday, September 10, 2022
• Kick-off: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
Colorado vs Air Force key injuries
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Colorado vs Air Force weather
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Colorado vs Air Force betting trend to know
The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against a team with a losing record. Find more NCAA betting trends for Colorado vs. Air Force.
