The Nevada Wolf Pack finally found a team as bad as they are. The cellar-dweller in the Mountain West Conference’s West Division will host the winless Colorado State Rams of the Mountain West’s Mountain Division on Friday.
Both teams are coming off bye weeks and definitely needed the rest. In their last game before the break, the Rams got hammered by Sacramento State 41-10, while the Wolf Pack were manhandled by Air Force, 48-20.
Will the off-week benefit CSU or Nevada? Find out in our free college football picks and predictions for Colorado State vs. Nevada on October 7.
Colorado State vs Nevada best odds
Colorado State vs Nevada picks and predictions
Though Nevada has lost its last three games, the Wolf Pack did start the season 2-0. They beat New Mexico State on the road by 11 points, then clobbered Texas State at home, 38-14.
Those weren’t exactly marquee wins, but they were underdogs to Texas State. That’s why it is so hard to figure out the loss to FCS school Incarnate Word back in Week 2.
Now with a week of rest, they are hosting a Colorado State team that hasn’t won all year. The Rams lured away head coach Jay Norvell from Nevada last year and he took several players with him, but so far it hasn’t paid off with a win.
To make matters worse for Norvell, it's likely he is going to have to pull off the upset without his starting quarterback Clay Millen. The redshirt freshman suffered an AC sprain in his shoulder during the team’s 41-10 loss to Sacramento State.
Norvell said Millen is day-to-day but it looks like backup Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi will get the start. In the Sacramento game, Fowler-Nicolosi went 6 of 15 passing for 116 yards and one touchdown.
The Rams are last in the FBS in rushing yards per carry, tackles for loss allowed, and first downs. They are also next to last in yards per play and sacks allowed.
Nevada’s offense isn’t much better, but they do have a decent running back in Toa Taua, who leads a unit that is 92nd in rushing offense. Taua is averaging more than four yards a carry.
With CSU’s porous run defense, this is where Nevada will attack. I like Taua to lead the way and the Wolf Pack to win by a touchdown.
My best bet: Nevada -3.5 (-109 at FanDuel)
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Colorado State vs Nevada spread analysis
The two times Nevada did successfully cover actually came in the first two games of the season. They were laying seven points to New Mexico State and prevailed by a score of 23-12. They were then 2.5-point underdogs to Texas State and won outright.
I think the CSU game will be closer to those results. The Wolf Pack are only 3.5-point favorites against a Rams team that has little to no offense and will be severely disadvantaged if their starting quarterback can’t play.
Besides, CSU hasn’t covered all season. They got 31 points at Michigan and lost by 44. They were 14.5-point favorites to Middle Tennessee and fell 34-19. They got 17 points at Washington State and lost by 31. They also got 4.5 points against Sacramento State and were blown out 41-10.
The Rams are 1-5 ATS against a team with a losing record and are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 overall. The Wolf Pack are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss and 3-0-1 ATS in their last four following a bye week.
I like Nevada to cover their first game ATS since Week 2.
Colorado State vs Nevada Over/Under analysis
The total opened at 46.5 but was quickly bet down to 44. This might be a good opportunity to bet the Over.
It's true that CSU has hit the Under in all of their games this season, but they also are 4-0 on the Over in their last four conference games.
That pairs nicely with Nevada, as the Wolf Pack have hit the Over in three of their five games this season. They are also 4-0 on the Over in their last four in the conference. While the deficiencies of the defense have been well-chronicled, the offense might be able to get some scores to send the game over the total.
The Rams will be the key, as they haven’t scored more than 19 in a game this season. In three of their losses, they could only put up 10 or fewer points. The Wolf Pack are going to have to make up the difference.
Nevada has scored 20 or more points in four of their five games. If they can do that again, the Over should cash.
Colorado State vs Nevada betting trend to know
Colorado State is 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings with Nevada. Find more NCAA betting trends for Colorado State vs. Nevada.
Colorado State vs Nevada game info
|Location:||Mackay Stadium, Reno, Nevada|
|Date:||Friday, October 7, 2022|
|Kickoff:||10:30 p.m. ET|
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