It is a mythical thought and one thrown around too often. College football diehards know it simply by hearing a number.
“2007.”
There is no need to be hyperbolic and say 2025 could be shaping up to look like 2007’s chaos.
For the uninitiated, let’s simply point out that 2007 saw the largest FBS vs. FBS upset in college football history, when Stanford took down No. 2 USC 24-23 in Los Angeles despite the Cardinal being a 41-point underdog, and that is not even recognized as the high-water mark of chaos that season.
South Florida rose to No. 2 in the rankings. So did Cal, Boston College, Kansas, and West Virginia.
This year will not be that. The top of college football is more set these days. But still, there is something in the air as fall rolls in early this year.
The bars barely made it to Labor Day with their windows open. It is already whiskey weather.
Layer up when it comes to your college football picks.
College football Week 2 preview and betting news
- Look at 2024’s Top
- You See It in the Title Odds
- Bonus Bet No. 1
- Appreciate The Covers Publishing Desk
- Bonus Bet No. 2
Look at 2024’s Top
Just for context, let’s look at the top of college football a year ago using ESPN.com’s SP+ ratings, broadly considered the best metric gauging the whole sport.
Entering Week 2 of the 2024 season, the top team in the SP+ ratings was Georgia, considered a touchdown better than Ohio State at No. 5.
Now, for this moment, do not race ahead to the end of the season and remember the Buckeyes’ dominant Playoff run. This is about what we knew at the time.
And we knew Georgia, Alabama, Texas, Mississippi, and Ohio State were a cut above the rest of the country, with the Bulldogs very much leading the way. They were 4.2 points better than Alabama in this math.
By the same metric right now, the top five teams are within 4.6 points of each other. The top two teams are tied, Ohio State and Georgia, just one point ahead of Oregon.
To find the full touchdown that separated No. 1 from No. 5 last year, you have to reach past No. 11 right now.
Why?
For one thing, as the universal pandemic eligibility waiver has finally come off rosters, there is less experienced talent in college football. Secondly, immediate eligibility upon transferring has spread talent further across the country.
But mostly, this may just be a fun year.
At this point last year, No. 6 Penn State was seen as significantly stronger than the average team — similar to how Ohio State and Georgia are viewed now. The top of the sport has moved toward the middle, and that has created a glut at the top.
You See It in the Title Odds
The top of the sport moving toward the middle is the exact reason FanDuel currently has no teams with national championship odds shorter than +600 (Georgia and Ohio State), while five are at +100 or shorter, and another four are at +1700 or shorter.
Do the simplest math and realize that it is suggesting nine teams have at least a 5.5% chance of winning the national championship.
How many fan bases in the country would jump at that kind of chance?
College Football Week 2 Preview with Douglas Farmer and Andrew Caley https://t.co/OlHOOkSvmW
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 3, 2025
Bonus Bet No. 1
This is not a normal bet from yours truly. Player props thrive in variance and flukes, especially the touchdown markets. This is the flaw of head-to-head fantasy football and why all fantasy football leagues should be season-long points battles.
That is also the reason I retired from fantasy football for eight years before my nephew called me on Sunday, inviting me to embarrass him this season.
Anyway, Kansas senior running back Daniel Hishaw’s usage stands out. He has 27 rushes through two games, more than double the next Jayhawk ballcarrier.
There may be a subtle Kansas emphasis to lean on Hishaw to lessen some of the oft-injured quarterback Jalon Daniels’s workload. Whatever the reason, Hishaw should see an abundance of chances in this renewed rivalry at Missouri, and his touchdown market is just a bit shorter than it should be.
🏈Bonus pick from Douglas: Daniel Hishaw anytime touchdown (-120 at BetMGM)🏈
Appreciate The Covers Publishing Desk
They have let yours truly throw some wild thoughts onto the site in the last week or two.
Comparing all of college football to a set of dive bar priorities was a particular brand of analogy; working Deion Sanders’s late-game clock mismanagement into articles about Iowa vs. Iowa State and FIU vs. Penn State was absolutely unnecessary, and then there was devoting a “Best Bet” to a Merrimack moneyline.
But perhaps the desk should have pushed back when arguing, “At some point, UAB will realize the best time to fire (Trent) Dilfer was yesterday, but the second-best time is today.”
Because that may not have been harsh enough.
How bad must things be at UAB that the Navy Team Total this weekend is set at 40.5 with the Over juiced to -122 at FanDuel?
This is not a bet. This is awe.
New Mexico threw the ball against Michigan with an alarming success rate, given it is New Mexico.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 5, 2025
That's enough reason for me to back Oklahoma this weekend, both via the Team Total Over and the -5.5 at @FDSportsbook. pic.twitter.com/Quyp4EJvdj
Bonus Bet No. 2
Let’s finish here with one more touchdown prop from the state of Kansas.
As bad as Kansas State’s offensive line is — and it is, if for no other reason than longtime offensive line coach Conor Riley now coaches the Cowboys’ offensive line — it should have no trouble pushing around Army this weekend.
And the Wildcats need a night to get right. On all fronts.
One can wonder which will be an uglier game, Navy wrecking UAB or Kansas State running up the score on Army.
With that in mind, realize Avery Johnson should be closer to -200 in the anytime touchdown market. Most books have not yet posted player props for this game, but -135 is available at DraftKings.
Johnson has rushed for at least one score in seven of his last 10 games against FBS opponents.
But when putting faith in Kansas State, be sure to find whiskey soon after.
🏈Bonus pick from Douglas: Avery Johnson anytime touchdown (-135 at DraftKings)🏈
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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