Making college football predictions in September (and August) has become more and more difficult with the advent of immediate eligibility upon transferring. The increased roster turnover leaves far less to be enjoyed in terms of preseason priors, not to mention the furthered parity of the sport as the top teams can no longer stockpile talent knowing young reserves are less likely to leave when needing to sit out a year elsewhere.
The two keys to best surviving this stretch are:
- Do not stray from your process.
- Learn with every bet and every game.
Going 1-4 in this column last week is unquestionably frustrating, as is losing 3.3 units. But a 4-6 start to the season (-2.0) units is entirely manageable if each of those bets taught a lesson.
Lessons like the Marshall-to-Southern Miss mass transfer executed by head coach Charles Huff may not be as turnkey as expected, though the Golden Eagles should still make it into October without being an underdog in Sun Belt play.
Lessons like Clemson’s offensive line does not look the part of a national title contender. And lessons like Kent State is every bit as bad as expected, even if notching its first win in its last 22 games. A punt return for a touchdown cost that delightful Merrimack +195 moneyline, but it confirmed how bad the Golden Flashes are.
Do not overreact to such a lost bet. Not ever, but certainly not in September. We have five months in this dive bar of college football. We pace ourselves, now looking at some college football picks for Week 2.
College football predictions Week 2
Mississippi -8.5 (-110)
WIU/NW 
u51.5 (-110)
Navy -21 (-110)
NC State -3 (-110)
Arkansas State +23.5 (-110)
Mississippi -8.5 vs. Kentucky
Yours truly did not bet last week’s Toledo vs. Kentucky game in any way. There was some early-week thought to taking the Kentucky Wildcats at -7.5, the entire logic being, “This is too obvious an upset spot; Mark Stoops has had time to prepare.” By the time I was convinced in that logic, the line had moved toward -10, and staying away became prudent.
The lesson here is not to bet earlier in the week (though you should), and the lesson here is not that every one of those thoughts was spot on (though they were).
The lesson is in what Kentucky failed to do against Toledo: Pass the ball with any sense of success.
The Wildcats put together one of the absolute worst passing performances conceivable no matter how you want to look at it. For the layman: Zach Calzada went 10 of 23 for 85 yards and an interception. For the analytical: Kentucky averaged -0.75 expected points per designed dropback, the kind of number that ranks in the lowest measurable percentile.
This was not working out the kinks. This was a lost cause.
Enter the Mississippi Rebels. The Rebels have not received as much hype as usual this season, in part because their quarterback is such an unknown. But Austin Simmons averaged 11.0 yards per attempt in his starting debut. Two interceptions were worrisome, but he has an adept handle of Lane Kiffin’s offense.
That discrepancy alone would assure confidence in Mississippi covering this spread, but realize the Rebels’ defense has actually become their strength in recent days. It may hold Kentucky off the scoreboard. Some further value might be found in a Wildcats team total Under 14.5 at +196 at FanDuel.
Western Illinois vs Northwestern Under 51.5
Welcome back to the shores of Lake Michigan. That is not simply a marketing ploy from Northwestern University. For the first two months of another season, the Northwestern Wildcats’ home games are within yards of Lake Michigan.
The temporary stadium is a delight. There may not be a more scenic stadium between Seattle and Boone, N.C. But it also impacts the game.
For the unfamiliar or those who think the cookie-cutter stadiums of the NFL are the norm, here is Northwestern's setup this fall.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 1, 2024
Still waiting on a shanked punt to find the water. pic.twitter.com/zbaZa1Kic2
Of five games there last season, four went Under their totals in regulation. Only facing Indiana prompted an Over, and some may remember the Hoosiers’ offense feasted on every inferior defense it saw last season.
The four Unders cashed in regulation by an average of 12.25 points.
Some may worry Northwestern could run up the score on the FCS-level Western Illinois Leathernecks to threaten this total. Sure, that is possible, but these Wildcats are probably incapable of scoring more than 35 points, and that would still leave three scores worth of cushion from the Leathernecks.
Navy -21 vs. UAB
Lesser Navy Midshipmen teams have covered this number each of the last two seasons against better UAB Blazers teams. Now, describing any UAB team as “better” during the Trent Dilfer Era is a bold thought, but things continue to devolve for the Blazers under one of the most uninspired hires in the 21st century.
Do not for a moment think UAB’s defense must have improved. It gave up 212 rushing yards on 39 attempts (sacks adjusted) against FCS-level Alabama State last weekend, an average of 5.18 yards per carry.
There should be no doubt that Navy and star quarterback Blake Horvath will gash the Blazers repeatedly. Service academy option offenses go as their quarterbacks go, and the mere fact that Horvath shows up on FanDuel’s Heisman odds (+35000) should emphasize that this Midshipmen offense will go far.
In the last two seasons, Navy has been a 4.5-point favorite at UAB and a 2.5-point home underdog. The Midshipmen won the former by 23 points and the latter by 25, averaging 36 points in the process. Combining the two games, Navy took 88 carries for 498 yards (sack adjusted), an absurd average of 5.66 yards per rush.
That might not sound all that absurd, but realize the sample size there is decently significant. Over two full games, the Midshipmen averaged a first down every other rushing attempt.
At some point, UAB will realize the best time to fire Dilfer was yesterday, but the second-best time is today. And Navy could push the Blazers administration toward that realization this weekend.
College Football Week 2 Preview with Douglas Farmer and Andrew Caley https://t.co/OlHOOkSvmW
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 3, 2025
North Carolina State -3 vs. Virginia
The Virginia Cavaliers absolutely dominated Coastal Carolina to open the season, a 48-7 win that may not have even been that close. But was that more about the Chanticleers being terrible or the Cavaliers being good?
This is a bet that Coastal Carolina is terrible.
What stands out about that rout is that Virginia struggled to create explosive plays and was, at best, an average rushing team. The North Carolina State Wolfpack defense should emphasize each of those issues, particularly given the Wolfpack forced East Carolina further from scoring position on its average rush last week.
The Pirates averaged -0.43 expected points per rush on 28 designed runs. Here, let’s put that more simply: East Carolina gained 35 yards on 28 rushes (sack adjusted). Everyone can see the problem there.
Without explosive play abilities and a run game that may go outright backward this weekend, there is no reason to believe in Virginia as a short road underdog, not even after that season-opening rout.
Arkansas State +23.5 vs. Arkansas
Shame on the Razorbacks. Lift up others. College football is a beautiful mess because it reaches to every corner of this country and within each state. Avoiding the Arkansas State Red Wolves for more than 100 years is nothing but cowardice.
Just because the worst-case scenario in this matchup is losing to your perceived little brother, do not run away. Rise to that challenge. Here’s a thought: Don’t lose.
They’ve been playing football for over a combined 200 years, but they’ve never played each other… until this week.
— Sickos Committee (@SickosCommittee) September 1, 2025
Arkansas vs Arkansas State at War Memorial Stadium in Little Rock. pic.twitter.com/JihUmBpmfR
Now, by no means should the Arkansas Razorbacks lose. They are, obviously, four-score favorites.
But the abstract stakes here establish this spread as too hefty. The Red Wolves have stared at this game all offseason; they did not fret much about Southeast Missouri State. While Arkansas will play not to lose, Arkansas State will play like lives depend on it.
Furthermore, the Razorbacks are 0-5 against the spread as at least three-score favorites vs. FBS teams in the last three years, and that does not even convey how bad that stat is.
All those pessimistic thoughts above about UAB? Arkansas beat the Blazers by just 10 points last year despite being a 22-point favorite. Note: UAB opened last season 1-4 against the spread against FBS foes, the one win being against Arkansas.
Kent State’s aforementioned 21-game losing streak began the week after it faced Arkansas in 2023, when the Razorbacks were 38-point favorites and won by just 22 points. Note: Kent State covered the spread just twice against FBS opponents in 2023, against Arkansas in Week 2 and against Northern Illinois in the final week of the season.
The Razorbacks are not built to win blowouts under head coach Sam Pittman, not even against the little brother they have run from for so long.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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