The ethos of a college football rivalry often shows up in an unexpected spread.
That is the only explanation for the Iowa Hawkeyes being only 2.5-point underdogs against the Iowa State Cyclones this weekend.
My Iowa vs. Iowa State predictions understand the ethos of the rivalry called "El Assico", but they are also willing to embrace the value of the short home favorite.
Read more in my college football picks for Saturday, September 6.
Iowa vs Iowa State predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Iowa vs Iowa State spread pick: Iowa State -2.5 (-120)
An easy argument could be made that Iowa State should be favored by a touchdown against Iowa, if not 7.5 points. Look at ESPN.com’s SP+ ratings and realize the Cyclones should be 4-point favorites on a neutral field, yet they are at home.
Why is the spread thus so short? Welcome to one of the most comical rivalries in college football. These two do not know how to play lopsided games.
Since Matt Campbell’s debut season at Iowa State in 2016, only two of eight games have been settled by more than one possession. One of those came in his first season, losing 42-3 as he tried to rebuild the Cyclones, so that leaves six one-score games out of the last seven, and that one exception was all but a 10-point Iowa victory.
These two simply play each other tight. Knowing this game is nearly predestined to be within one score, a spread of -7.5 would be laughable.
But recognizing the value in Iowa State, despite this rivalry’s clear mandates, makes the best bet a quick decision.
Early Iowa vs Iowa State total pick: Under 41.5 (-115)
If this matchup being a close game is as inevitable as death, taxes, and Deion Sanders mishandling timeouts late in the game, then an Under is nearly as inevitable, simply given the existence of Iowa.
And indeed, six of the eight matchups since Campbell’s arrival have gone Under their totals. Four of the last five have also stayed below this modest number.
More pertinently, the world is overlooking Iowa State’s defense, even after it held Kansas State in check in Dublin in Week 0. The Cyclones’ defense was riddled with injuries last season, somewhat contributing to it remaining underappreciated.
That unit against Iowa’s trademarked defense could keep this game in the teens.
Iowa vs Iowa State odds
- Iowa vs. Iowa State spread: Iowa State -3.5
- Iowa vs. Iowa State moneyline: Iowa +125, Iowa State -150
- Iowa vs. Iowa State Over/Under: 41.5
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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