Michigan needed a little luck to escape Week 1 and promptly dropped out of the Top 25, but two weeks later, the Wolverines are 3-0, ranked No. 18, and laying nearly a touchdown at home against unbeaten No. 17 Iowa.
That makes Saturday's Big Ten opener in Ann Arbor one of the more fascinating games on the Week 4 board. My early Iowa vs. Michigan predictions focus on whether the Wolverines' defense can expose Iowa's offense and whether either team can generate enough scoring to push this game Over the total.
Check out all of our college football picks for Week 4.
Iowa vs Michigan predictions
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Early Iowa vs Michigan spread pick: Michigan -4.5
Iowa's offense has finally shown some life, but this is where I expect it to hit a wall. The Hawkeyes are averaging 7.4 yards per rush, but their success rate drops from 56.1% on standard downs to just 23.6% on passing downs, ranking 117th nationally.
That's the matchup Michigan can exploit. The Wolverines are allowing only 3.8 yards per play and have nine sacks through three games, so Iowa can't live in second-and-long and third-and-long.
Make Hank Brown consistently beat this defense through the air in Ann Arbor, and I'll happily lay the points with Michigan.
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Early Iowa vs Michigan total pick: Pick
This total is microscopic, but both defenses are built to keep it there. Iowa leads the country in defensive success rate at 24.1% and is allowing just 2.2 yards per rush and 4.4 per pass attempt.
Michigan isn't exactly built to attack that strength, averaging only 5.5 yards per play while running just 59 plays per game, 125th nationally.
I don't see either offense consistently sustaining drives in this matchup. Michigan should force Iowa into uncomfortable passing downs, while the Hawkeyes can choke off a Wolverines rushing attack averaging only 148 yards per game.
This has 20-13 written all over it.
Iowa vs Michigan odds
- Iowa vs Michigan spread: Michigan -5.5
- Iowa vs Michigan moneyline: Iowa 36%, Michigan 66%
- Iowa vs Michigan Over/Under: 38.5
How to watch Iowa vs Michigan
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026, 3:30 p.m. ET
- City: Ann Arbor, Mich.
- Venue: Michigan Stadium
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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