Clemson vs Duke Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Protecting Their Stripes

Are the Clemson Tigers yesterday's news? According to reviews of their 2022 season, the Tigers ACC dynasty is all but finished, and Dabo Swinney is in store for massive disappointment. 

So they say. 

I believe tonight, against the Duke Blue Devils, the Tigers will prove they are far from dead. The Blue Devils are staring the regression bug right in the face, and with Clemson a 13-point favorite in the college football odds, sportsbooks believe in the Tigers too.

Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Clemson vs. Duke on Monday, September 4.

Clemson vs Duke best odds

Clemson vs Duke picks and predictions

The Clemson Tigers could have been a College Football Playoff team last season. If Dabo Swinney had strayed from DJ Uiagalelei toward the end of the season and given the reins to then-freshman Cade Klubnik, Clemson could have gotten by South Carolina in the regular-season finale — a game undone by Uiagalelei interceptions — and made the Playoff with the eventual win in the ACC Championship Game.

That would have been less fun for us, the football fans, because the Tigers would have pulled off that Playoff appearance at TCU’s expense, but nevertheless, Clemson would likely have been in the Playoff last season with one coaching decision that was apparent to the public in early November.

What would the Tigers’ storyline be right now if that had happened? There would be no talk of a demise. It would be only a conversation of that Playoff appearance preluding a possible title run.

That is not purely pixie dust. Clemson has one of the most dynamic running backs in the country in Will Shipley. Klubnik was a five-star recruit rated just a touch behind the likes of Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields. And now they are at new offensive coordinator Garrett Riley’s disposal. Finding a way to spark the Clemson offense is part of the push in endorsing the Tigers, and Riley should have that effect immediately. He had it in his one season at TCU.

The worry has always been Clemson’s offense. The defense never wavered. It ranked No. 10 in expected points added per play against, per cfb-graphs.com. And that was supposedly a down year, the first season without Brent Venables leading the Tigers’ defense in a decade. They now enjoy arguably the best linebacker duo in the country in Jeremiah Trotter Jr. and Barrett Carter. And the defensive line may finally feature sixth-year end Xavier Thomas, always tantalizing but usually injured.

Every one of these points speaks to the Tigers’ talent. It is still one of the most talented rosters in the country, ranked No. 5 in 247sports.com’s 2023 team talent composite.

Meanwhile, the Duke Blue Devils were plus-16 in turnover differential last season, and they faced four bowl teams in the regular season. Again, praise Elko. But a step back is on its way, and that should begin on Monday night against the Tigers in front of a national audience.

Shop around and this spread can be found at less than -13. It could hold value, in this handicapper’s opinion, up to -16.5, so imagine the joy to find the number four points better.

My best bet: Clemson -12.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

Clemson vs Duke same-game parlay

Clemson -12.5

Clemson TT Over 34.5

Cade Klubnik Over 1.5 pass TDs

+174 at FanDuel

The TCU coaching staff, including Riley, got away with a big mistake to start last season. Starting Chandler Morris over Max Duggan in the season opener did not cost the Horned Frogs only because they were fortunate to play the 2022 rendition of Colorado. Duggan attempted only three passes in that opener, and then he took over the starring gig that led TCU to the College Football Playoff.

In the eight subsequent games leading Riley’s offense (and keep in mind that was Duggan’s first action in Riley’s Air Raid, just like it will be Klubnik’s), Duggan threw for at least two touchdowns in each and 24 total scores.

This is an Air Raid offense. The ball will be in the air. Klubnik has shown the arm talent to dazzle, and Riley will want him to.

If looking for a bigger payday, incorporating a Shipley touchdown (-440) or two (+150) can serve as a further boost, given how much of the load he has carried for years for Clemson and how much Riley should use his speed now.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Clemson vs Duke spread and Over/Under analysis

We discussed the spread at length above, Clemson to cover is my best bet for Monday night.

This total of 55.5, down from 56 earlier in the week, is not giving proper respect to Riley’s offense. The tempo change at Clemson will be stark, no matter the new rules that keep the clock running after first downs outside of the final two minutes of each half.

The Tigers scored 34 or more points in seven of their 12 regular-season games last year while running a shuffling offense that was wildly considered to be a weak link.

Duke’s defense was weak against the pass, ranked No. 95 in EPA, presumably giving Riley’s Air Raid a delightful learning curve to open the season.

Clemson vs Duke betting trend to know

Clemson won the first half in five of its last six road games. Find more college football betting trends for Clemson vs Duke.

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