Cal saw its chance and made the most of it. So did South Florida and Eastern Michigan.
Nebraska dropped the ball, as did Minnesota, but the Gophers were rewarded by their strong graduation rate in recent years, the last team to make a bowl despite being 5-7. And the fact that Minnesota is needed also means James Madison and Jacksonville State are going bowling despite the NCAA’s arcane ways.
By playing competitively yet losing to Michigan, Ohio State should have assured itself an Orange Bowl appearance, which kicks off a string of dominos that likely move Notre Dame into the New Year’s Day ReliaQuest Bowl and leave the Pop-Tarts Bowl looking at … North Carolina State?
Our final bowl projections …
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Updated college football bowl projections for November 27
December 16
Myrtle Beach Bowl: James Madison vs. Liberty
This will no longer be an unbeaten matchup, so the focus would tilt toward Liberty’s chase of a perfect 14-0 season.
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Troy vs. New Mexico State
Avocados from Mexico Cure Bowl: South Florida vs. Texas State
Isleta New Mexico Bowl: Boise State vs. Western Kentucky
LA Bowl: Utah vs. UNLV
One of the most consistent programs in the country against a 2023 upstart and probable conference champion could create a unique test for the Rebels.
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl: West Virginia vs. California
December 18
Bahamas Bowl: Jacksonville State vs. Ohio
Being held in Myrtle Beach for a year, the Bahamas Bowl needed to be rebranded and found its corporate partner last week.
December 19
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl: Rice vs Old Dominion
December 21
Roofclaim.com Boca Raton Bowl: Georgia Southern vs South Alabama
December 22
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl: Utah State vs. Georgia State
December 23
Camellia Bowl: Eastern Michigan vs. Appalachian State
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Miami (OH) vs. Air Force
68 Ventures Bowl: Bowling Green vs. Coastal Carolina
Birmingham Bowl: Wyoming vs. Arkansas State
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl: UCLA vs. Maryland
Projecting Memphis to the Hawai’i Bowl is an effort at a make-good, after the Tigers’ appearance in the game was canceled in 2021 after Memphis was already on the island because Hawaii, the football team, suffered a COVID outbreak. And bringing in the Spartans as the opponent could be a Mountain West effort to do right by the team left out of the conference championship game by vague computer rankings.
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: Central Florida vs. Marshall
December 26
Quick Lane Bowl: Minnesota vs. Toledo
It would be a letdown for 11-1 Toledo to face 5-7 Minnesota, but the MAC may also want to emphasize beating a Power Five team in a bowl game, and this is likely the only chance the conference will have.
Servpro First Responder Bowl: Syracuse vs. Texas Tech
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Northwestern vs. Iowa State
December 27
Military Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. UTSA
Duke’s Mayo Bowl: Boston College vs. Texas A&M
If Mike Elko leads Texas A&M to any future Mayo Bowl appearances, his tenure in College Station may be as doomed as Jimbo Fisher’s was.
TaxAct Texas Bowl: Kansas vs. Louisiana
DirecTV Holiday Bowl: Miami (FL) vs. Oregon State
December 28
Wasabi Fenway Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. SMU
Pop-Tarts Bowl: North Carolina State vs. Oklahoma
The Trojans have fallen too far to be sent to the Las Vegas Bowl, no offense intended to the Alamo Bowl.
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl: North Carolina vs. Rutgers
December 29
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl: Clemson vs. LSU
Clemson has reportedly told the ACC it distinctly prefers either the Gator Bowl or the Holiday Bowl, and if there is any team the conference is likely to appease, it is Clemson.
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl: Duke vs. Arizona
The Wildcats have risen too far to simply head to the LA Bowl because it is hosted by their favorite alum, Rob Gronkowski.
AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Kansas State vs. Auburn
Goodyear Cotton Bowl: Alabama vs. Texas
December 30
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: Missouri vs. Tulane
With SMU quarterback Preston Stone out for the season, the Green Wave looks like the AAC champion and thus the Group of Five’s entrant into the New Year’s Six bowls.
TransPerfect Music City Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Kentucky
Capital One Orange Bowl: Louisville vs. Ohio State
The highest-ranked SEC or Big Ten team to miss the Playoff will face the ACC here, and it is hard to envision that not being the Buckeyes at this point, unless Iowa upsets Michigan on Saturday.
Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State
January 1
ReliaQuest Bowl: Tennessee vs. Notre Dame
Many people want to envision Notre Dame facing LSU here. Irish head coach Marcus Freeman was explicitly asked about the possibility on Monday. Logic and rationale thought realize one or both of the programs would attempt to avoid that.
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl: Mississippi vs. Iowa
VRBO Fiesta Bowl: Washington vs. Penn State
Rose Bowl (CFP Semifinal): Georgia vs. Oregon
Allstate Sugar Bowl (CFP Semifinal): Michigan vs. Florida State
Seminoles quarterback Jordan Travis’s season-ending leg injury may make the Wolverines worry so little about Florida State that they give a subtle thumbs-up to the selection committee to send them to the Sugar Bowl, closer to Tallahassee but also easier travel for the maize faithful.
January 8
CFP National Championship: Rose Bowl winner vs. Sugar Bowl winner
Schools already CFB bowl eligible
AAC
Tulane (11-1), 
SMU (10-2), 
Memphis (9-3), 
UTSA (8-4)
ACC
Florida State (12-0), 
Louisville (10-2), 
North Carolina (8-4), 
Duke (7-5), 
Boston College (6-6), 
North Carolina State (9-3), 
Miami (7-5), 
Clemson (8-4)
ACC-adjacent
Notre Dame (9-3)
Notre Dame is bowl-eligible at 7-3 and, as part of its pseudo-membership with the ACC, has access to all the conference’s bowl tie-ins aside from the Orange Bowl, which its third loss precluded, anyway.
Big 12
Texas (11-1), 
Oklahoma State (9-3), 
Kansas (8-4), 
Oklahoma (10-2), 
Kansas State (8-4), 
West Virginia (8-4)
Big Ten
Michigan (12-0), 
Ohio State (11-1), 
Penn State (10-2), 
Iowa (10-2), 
Rutgers (6-6), 
Maryland (7-5), 
Wisconsin(7-4)
Conference USA
Liberty (12-0), 
New Mexico State (10-3), 
Jacksonville State (8-4)*
MAC
Toledo (11-1), 
Miami (OH) (10-2), 
Ohio (9-3), 
Bowling Green (7-5)
Mountain West
Air Force (8-4), 
Fresno State (8-4), 
UNLV (9-3), 
Wyoming (8-4)
Pac-12
Washington (12-0), 
Oregon (11-1), 
USC (7-5), 
Oregon State (8-4), 
Utah (8-4), 
Arizona (9-3), 
UCLA(7-5)
SEC
Georgia (12-0), 
Alabama (11-1), 
Mississippi (10-2), 
Missouri (10-2), 
Tennessee (8-4), 
Kentucky (7-5), 
LSU (9-3), 
Texas A&M (7-5), 
Auburn (6-6)
Sun Belt
Troy (10-2), 
Coastal Carolina (7-5), 
Georgia Southern (6-6), 
Texas State (7-5), 
Georgia State (6-6), 
James Madison (11-1)*
*Becomes eligible if there are not 82 six-win teams
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