Baylor vs Oklahoma State Big 12 Championship Picks and Predictions: Cowboys' Defense Answers the Call

The Bears do a good job of hanging around but the Cowboys have been one of the best values in football — which is tough to pass up in the Big 12 Championship. Find out who you should be backing this weekend with our picks for Baylor vs. Oklahoma State.

Last Updated: Dec 3, 2021 6:12 PM ET Read Time: 5 min
Spencer Sanders Oklahoma State Cowboys Big 12 Championship
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The remarkable turnaround for the Baylor Bears under Dave Aranda has culminated in a spot in the Big 12 Championship game, with the Bears boasting a 10-2 mark ahead of the title game.

On the other side, Oklahoma State has quietly been among the country's best teams all season, and at 11-1, the Cowboys could have CFP hopes with a win on Saturday.

Read our college football picks and predictions for the Big 12 Championship between the Baylor Bears vs. the Oklahoma State Cowboys on Saturday, December 4 to find out.

Baylor vs Oklahoma State odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Baylor took some money from the opener, dropping from +6.5 to +5.5. The total has remained steady since opening at 46.5. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.

Baylor vs Oklahoma State predictions

Predictions made on 12/2/2021 at 7:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Baylor vs Oklahoma State game info

Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Date: Saturday, December 4, 2021
Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
TV: ABC

Baylor vs Oklahoma State betting preview

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.

Key injuries

Baylor: Gerry Bohanon QB (Questionable), Kalon Barnes DB (Questionable), Christian Morgan DB (Questionable)
Oklahoma State: LD Brown RB (Questionable), Braydon Johnson WR (Out), Langston Anderson WR (Out), Braden Cassity TE (Questionable), Trace Ford DE (Out)

Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Cowboys are 9-1-1 in their last 11 games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Baylor vs. Oklahoma State.

Baylor vs Oklahoma State picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Baylor will likely be a popular underdog in this spot. After all, it’s a matchup between two fairly close teams with a total under 50, so it’s expected to be a tight matchup. That being said, Oklahoma State has been an undervalued team all season long and we’re going to pounce on our final opportunity to back them.

While Baylor has been a profitable 8-4 ATS, the Cowboys are an outstanding 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games. Oklahoma State has been especially dominant as of late, winning the last five games by a combined score of 202 to 56. 

Defense has been the calling card, as the Pokes rank third in the country with only 276.3 yards per game allowed. Baylor couldn’t get much going offensively in the first matchup between these teams in early October, mustering only 10 first downs in a 24-14 loss. We expect that to be the case again here given that starting quarterback Gerry Bohanon is considered “uncertain” for this contest after missing last week’s game with a hamstring injury. Freshman Blake Shapen filled in admirably against Texas Tech, but ... that’s Texas Tech. Even if Bohanon can go, the hamstring injury could slow down the dual-threat signal-caller.

The offense has also come to life for the Cowboys to close the season. They're averaging 40 points per game and over 450 yards of total offense over the past five games. The ground game churned out 219 yards in the first matchup, and dual-threat quarterback Spencer Sanders has looked improved in 2021. It’s still not a thing of beauty, but the Pokes have shown a renewed ability to move the football.

Prediction: Oklahoma State -5.5 (-110)

Seem like a low total for a Big 12 Championship game? Welcome to 2021, where defense prevailed in the Big 12.

We see this one playing out much like the first matchup, in which both teams combined for only 38 points. Baylor will play with either an inexperienced freshman quarterback or an injury-hampered dual-threat and is facing an elite defense. With only 280 yards and 10 first downs to show for in the first matchup, it’s difficult to expect an offensive explosion in the rematch. There aren’t many stars or standout NFL draft prospects on this unit, but it’s a well-coached and physical defense that’s been consistent throughout the year.

The Bears are solid defensively, ranking 41st in the country with only 351.4 yards per game allowed. Jalen Pitre leads the way with 15.5 tackles for a loss. The 219 rushing yards allowed in the first meeting is the most they’ve surrendered all season long, so it’s reasonable to expect improvement in that facet of the game. 

Prediction: Under 46.5 (-110)

Oklahoma State has been a severely undervalued team in 2021. Whether it’s the market not believing in a defense-first team under Mike Gundy or just a general oversight, it’s now impossible to ignore that the Cowboys are a darn good football team.

It should be a close game that we expect to be played out similarly to the first matchup, but ultimately, we expect the better team to prevail.

Pick: Oklahoma State -5.5 (-110)

College football parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed our Baylor vs. Oklahoma State picks, you could win $26.45 on a $10 bet?

Use our college football parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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